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Valuing Low Mileage in a Used Vehicle

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Valuing Low Mileage in a Used Vehicle

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Old 02-08-2018, 12:34 PM
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Default Valuing Low Mileage in a Used Vehicle

Would like to get some thoughts...

Two 2015 F150's almost exactly the same in every way. Same year, features, color, condition, etc.

One has ~23k miles and the other ~43k miles.

All else equal, what $$ premium would you think is reasonable for the low mile truck?
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Old 02-08-2018, 12:56 PM
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NADA will have the exact number. Just plug it in both ways.
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:51 AM
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For me, it would be about how they were cared for by PO. If they're dealer vehicles, then records aren't typically available.

If private sale, ask for as much paperwork as possible.With those miles, it's prolly only oil changes, but ask and see who treated it like a family member and who drove the wheels off of it.

My .02
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Old 02-09-2018, 03:55 AM
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All the online guides take mileage into account...
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:02 AM
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Originally Posted by nicecast View Post
Would like to get some thoughts...

Two 2015 F150's almost exactly the same in every way. Same year, features, color, condition, etc.

One has ~23k miles and the other ~43k miles.

All else equal, what $$ premium would you think is reasonable for the low mile truck?
All things being equal, to me.... maybe 10%. To the world .... who knows.

When I buy used, I go with older low mileage or newer high mileage. My assumptions are low mileage older ,was treated like a toy.... newer one was run on the highway.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:42 AM
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I guess in this case, one could say that one truck has an additional years worth of mileage on it. So maybe think about it being one year older than the other.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:44 AM
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Originally Posted by nicecast View Post
Would like to get some thoughts...

Two 2015 F150's almost exactly the same in every way. Same year, features, color, condition, etc.

One has ~23k miles and the other ~43k miles.

All else equal, what $$ premium would you think is reasonable for the low mile truck?
In the life of a truck, 20,000 miles ain't much.
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Old 02-09-2018, 05:59 AM
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I wouldn't pay more than 2 or 3K for the 20K mileage difference. I work from home, hardly drive 2-3K miles a year, so I usually end up buying cars with higher mileage and have been able to get them at a significant discount.
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Old 02-09-2018, 01:49 PM
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Thanks, guys. It seems like the consensus here is in line with KBB, NADA and Edmunds... about 10% premium for low mileage.
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:26 PM
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I wonder how easy it is to turn back one of those newer odometers. I have heard of that happening with the older odometers. I bought a truck with 3k miles on it and was wondering if it was legitimate.
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Old 02-09-2018, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Lobstercatcher229 View Post
I wonder how easy it is to turn back one of those newer odometers. I have heard of that happening with the older odometers. I bought a truck with 3k miles on it and was wondering if it was legitimate.
Dam near impossible. All digital now.
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Old 02-10-2018, 08:01 PM
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People worry to much about miles on odo. You can have a vehicle with 200K that was cared for and it be a great vehicle or one with 50k and it has been beat to shit. I like to look at interior and exterior. Did previous owner take care of vehicle? It shows in appearance when they have not. Drivetrains these days go hundreds of thousands of miles these days if properly maintained.
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Old 02-13-2018, 07:57 AM
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"All other things being equal" (that being, equal and proper maintenance and care, good tires, equally equipped etc...) I would use .10c a mile to figure depreciation and value between otherwise comparable vehicles. That's what I would evaluate the situation with and that comes after growing up in the autobiz and owning my own dealership several years ago. I bought hundreds of vehicles for inventory and that is generally what I used for a rough basis when figuring value. However, the market for todays used trucks is RETARDED and many sellers think their trucks are gold plated and in many cases want more for their 1-3yr old truck than you can buy a very similar one for brand new with the many factory incentive programs available from time to time.

Ford and GM are running some incentive plans on some of their 2018 full size crew cab trucks that knock off more than $10k from window sticker. The crazy thing is the used 2016 and 2017 on the market are priced sometimes nearly as much and sometimes even more than those very new trucks can be bought for! Crazy times in the used truck market for sure.

LC229 asked above... "I wonder how easy it is to turn back one of those newer odometers. I have heard of that happening with the older odometers. I bought a truck with 3k miles on it and was wondering if it was legitimate." Never say never, but it's mighty hard to do today and get away with it PLUS it's a federal offense and is the KISS OF DEATH for a dealer! The govt just LOVES to make examples of guys they catch rolling back odos and they'll gladly give such offenders free meals and a bed for several years when prosecuted. Most cars now days that still have mechanical odos are so old the value there isn't high enough to make such practice worth the risk. The newer ones are so hard to do that it requires technical advances that aren't easy to do nor get away with. The odometer in the dash isn't where they mileage is stored like the old mechanical units in the past. Todays odos are simply digital readouts with the information stored in the autos onboard computer systems (ECMS =Engine Control Mangement System, ECM = Engine Control Module etc...) Those aren't easily hacked and many repair facilities report all cars they recieve for anykind of repairs/services so that info goes into databanks like Carfax etc.... Those ECMs are quite expensive as well (usually 4 digits!) so they aren't worth replacing either in an attempt to fake up the mileage numbers.

Last edited by HatchieLuvr; 02-13-2018 at 08:09 AM.
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Old 02-13-2018, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by HatchieLuvr View Post
"All other things being equal" (that being, equal and proper maintenance and care, good tires, equally equipped etc...) I would use .10c a mile to figure depreciation and value between otherwise comparable vehicles. That's what I would evaluate the situation with and that comes after growing up in the autobiz and owning my own dealership several years ago. I bought hundreds of vehicles for inventory and that is generally what I used for a rough basis when figuring value. However, the market for todays used trucks is RETARDED and many sellers think their trucks are gold plated and in many cases want more for their 1-3yr old truck than you can buy a very similar one for brand new with the many factory incentive programs available from time to time.

Ford and GM are running some incentive plans on some of their 2018 full size crew cab trucks that knock off more than $10k from window sticker. The crazy thing is the used 2016 and 2017 on the market are priced sometimes nearly as much and sometimes even more than those very new trucks can be bought for! Crazy times in the used truck market for sure.

LC229 asked above... "I wonder how easy it is to turn back one of those newer odometers. I have heard of that happening with the older odometers. I bought a truck with 3k miles on it and was wondering if it was legitimate." Never say never, but it's mighty hard to do today and get away with it PLUS it's a federal offense and is the KISS OF DEATH for a dealer! The govt just LOVES to make examples of guys they catch rolling back odos and they'll gladly give such offenders free meals and a bed for several years when prosecuted. Most cars now days that still have mechanical odos are so old the value there isn't high enough to make such practice worth the risk. The newer ones are so hard to do that it requires technical advances that aren't easy to do nor get away with. The odometer in the dash isn't where they mileage is stored like the old mechanical units in the past. Todays odos are simply digital readouts with the information stored in the autos onboard computer systems (ECMS =Engine Control Mangement System, ECM = Engine Control Module etc...) Those aren't easily hacked and many repair facilities report all cars they recieve for anykind of repairs/services so that info goes into databanks like Carfax etc.... Those ECMs are quite expensive as well (usually 4 digits!) so they aren't worth replacing either in an attempt to fake up the mileage numbers.
Thanks for the info. It is refreshing to hear of a computer that isn't easily hacked.
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Old 02-13-2018, 10:35 AM
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Originally Posted by mikefloyd View Post
NADA will have the exact number...
That is how the lending institutions and insurance companies value low miles. I would value low miles even higher--closer to being a brand new one. It's pretty easy to see the difference in a low mileage vehicle.
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Old 02-13-2018, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by billinstuart View Post
Dam near impossible. All digital now.
Nope. There are companies that sell the service, even for modern digital odometers.

They advertise their services as "fixing" broken odometers, or "correcting" the mileage to make it more accurate. For instance, if you are running tires that are different size from oem, your odometer may be off from true mileage.

However, the service is abused, particularly by folks coming off lease with more miles than they purchased. They roll the odometer back to avoid the mileage penalties.

Get the Carfax on any used car you are considering. If there are no records on the Carfax, skip that vehicle. A Carfax record may be incomplete, but it should show a steady progression of mileage over time.

When I was shopping last year, I went to look at a late-model truck that had low miles. It had just come off-lease. Digital odometer showed mid-20Ks. When I got there and inspected it at the dealer lot, it showed far more wear and tear than it should have for that kind of mileage. And it had new tires.

I went home and ordered the Carfax. There was a steady progression of miles over three years, with the second to last service showing mileage in the 50Ks. The last service mileage recorded was back down in the 20Ks. I told the dealership, but they continued to advertise this vehicle with low miles for the next few weeks (when I stopped following.)

Point is -- be suspicious of unusually low mileage vehicles, especially those coming off lease.
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Old 02-14-2018, 05:51 AM
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Imho:

Low miles + low engine cycles (e.g. - number of trips driver made) = excellent

High miles + low engine cycles = fair

High miles + high engine cycles = poor

Low miles + high engine cycles = run away fast!

Short trips where the engine doesn't reach operating temperature for long are VERY hard on the engine and exhaust (oil not getting up to temp, condensate icrankcase and exhaust not burning off, etc.).

Often, 200k highway miles is better than 20k city miles.

If low miles, check for rusted-out exhaust system
(or replaced exhaust system) as an indicator of too many short trips around town.

With newer vehicles, an engine run hard and hot may be better than one that has been babied too much, especially if it is a performance vehicle. OTOH, if a truck is used to tow immediately without breaking it in, that is bad news.

Check the brakes. If they are original and show normal wear, chances are the vehicle was broken in properly (brakes need to be broken in, also). If there is a new set of brakes on the truck with less than 30k miles, i would avoid it as it may have been broken in improperly or abused while towing.
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Old 02-14-2018, 07:26 AM
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About $7,000.

I figure the value of a vehicle at 100,000 miles is low. In this case maybe $5,000. If the value new is $40,000, then $35,000 lost value by 100,000 miles, which is $0.35 mile, or $7,000 for 20,000 miles.

Some will say that is extreme overstated loss of value. Maybe so, but that is why I believe used vehicles are over priced, so I haven't bought used in many years.
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Old 02-14-2018, 10:40 AM
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This was interesting to me as well as I just bought a used vehicle but a 2017 with 32k miles. Compared to vehicles with about 20k miles less there was about a 10-12% discount. It was worth it to me to go with the higher mileage vehicle as everything else checked out. It actually took me a while to come around to buying an almost new vehicle with that many miles but I put about 20k a year on my vehicle so it will always be a high mileage vehicle. I didn't necessarily care what NADA or other sites quoted - it was about my personal preference and in the end I felt like the discount was worth it (despite it being in line with KBB, NADA, etc.)
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Inlander View Post
About $7,000.

I figure the value of a vehicle at 100,000 miles is low. In this case maybe $5,000. If the value new is $40,000, then $35,000 lost value by 100,000 miles, which is $0.35 mile, or $7,000 for 20,000 miles.

Some will say that is extreme overstated loss of value. Maybe so, but that is why I believe used vehicles are over priced, so I haven't bought used in many years.
It's actually the opposite: new vehicles are extremely overpriced. A high quality used vehicle with 100k is halfway through its lifecycle. Assuming "average" wear a good used rig with100k is significantly more than 12.5% of its original value, making the 7k estimate for 20 k miles off by a long shot. I've never bought a new vehicle in my life. Years ago, I bought my first used land cruiser had over 100k on it And sold new for around 50k. I paid 13k. Knowing that they can go to 300k miles, I figured I paid 25% original cost but still had 2/3 lifecycle left. Not a bad value proposition. Also, relatively little difference in price between a used LC with 100k vs one with 120k.
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