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Old 09-13-2017, 08:34 PM   #1
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Default Jose

Anyone think this storm might affect fishing next week? Even if it goes out to sea potentially? Seems like no one can figure out where it'll end up...
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Old 09-14-2017, 02:41 AM   #2
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Probably going to.
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Old 09-14-2017, 05:54 AM   #3
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One day it's way out to sea. Next day it's sliding up the coast. This is crazy.

Keeping fingers crossed he slides out to sea.
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Old 09-14-2017, 05:58 AM   #4
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I know you've heard it or seen it before - but Jose wont make landfall...
"Trump wont let him in"
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Old 09-14-2017, 07:17 AM   #5
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We are going to build a seawall and cnn is going to pay for it
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:02 AM   #6
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If you've been watching the models it's a nailbiter. As of this morning it looks like the consensus is it's going out to sea. There has been a lot of disagreement. As of last night the Euro had it hitting NJ like Sandy did. Also, if you've been following...last night they thought it would be up here as no more than a TD. Now it's back to Cat 1. Tonight and tomorrow should be telling in terms of models.
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:08 AM   #7
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If you've been watching the models it's a nailbiter. As of this morning it looks like the consensus is it's going out to sea. There has been a lot of disagreement. As of last night the Euro had it hitting NJ like Sandy did. Also, if you've been following...last night they thought it would be up here as no more than a TD. Now it's back to Cat 1. Tonight and tomorrow should be telling in terms of models.
Looking at the extended forecast for CC, they are predicting some heavy rains and blowing 20+ for a few days...wonder if this is Jose related or not...naturally I took the week off
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Old 09-14-2017, 08:44 AM   #8
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but theres no real warm water in " its path "

who knows -- at most itll blow a little more then normal in September
]
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:42 AM   #9
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Last report was it's fighting heavy wind shear which will help keep it from getting stronger over any warmer water it may come across. There is even the possibility that it will do another loop, but that also causes it to lose strength as it loops around it's own cooler water wake. As it moves farther north it will also start coming into more cooler water.
If by chance it comes up and brushes southern NE it will at worst be akin to a n'oreaster from what I've been reading.
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Old 09-14-2017, 09:47 AM   #10
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Last report was it's fighting heavy wind shear which will help keep it from getting stronger over any warmer water it may come across. There is even the possibility that it will do another loop, but that also causes it to lose strength as it loops around it's own cooler water wake. As it moves farther north it will also start coming into more cooler water.
If by chance it comes up and brushes southern NE it will at worst be akin to a n'oreaster from what I've been reading.

Sounds like a likely scenario although pay attention and check before you committ. def will be a nice ground swell around either way.
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Old 09-14-2017, 01:27 PM   #11
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No doubt. We get a weird back and forth motion from the strong under currents in our marina when something like that is in or near the neighborhood.
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Old 09-14-2017, 03:08 PM   #12
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No doubt. We get a weird back and forth motion from the strong under currents in our marina when something like that is in or near the neighborhood.
Which marina is that?
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Old 09-14-2017, 04:09 PM   #13
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Forecast completely changed as of 5:00 PM today. Headed this way and staying strong. Stay tuned.
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Old 09-14-2017, 04:10 PM   #14
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Old 09-14-2017, 10:48 PM   #15
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And now the track has shifted east again, and the models seem to agree it's gonna make a hard turn to the east out to sea before New England, hopefully that is so
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Old 09-15-2017, 01:09 AM   #16
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For forecasting marine conditions I have to give a shout out to DaBuh. His site is DaBuh.com but I follow him on twitter... @DaDaBuh, He only has 3k followers

This Florida dude does this primarily for predicting surfing conditions, he uses all the models, blending them together and many meteorologists actually follow him.. I find him very accurate for storm tracking. I use his data in the winter also for predicting Skiing and Boarding conditions in the east.

In regards to Jose his last model places the center of storm 200 miles S/SE of ACK
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Old 09-15-2017, 05:55 AM   #17
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Which marina is that?
Ferry Slip Yacht Club, New London, Ct.
We're at the mouth of the Thames River and pretty open. The SE direction is our most vulnerable, there's nothing between us and the NW side Fisher's Island about 7 mi's away across the sound. Any SE wind pretty much comes blasting right into the marina.
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:04 AM   #18
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We can thank that pesky strong high pressure that 's been over us and giving us great weather lately and pushed Irma farther west till it broke up to next to nothing and is now coming through.
The high is almost stalled just to the east of us over the Atlantic and it's rotation will help usher Jose up the coast. Hopefully the high will slowly move more east and allow Jose an out to clear us.
There are a couple spaghetti predictions that say if the high stalls then Jose could also stall and do another loop just south of NE. That would probably be the worst case scenario.
I think best case scenario is still gonna cause quite a bit of beach erosion and some coastal flooding, especially for The Cape and the islands as Jose just brushes us to the SE.
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:11 AM   #19
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Quote:
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We can thank that pesky strong high pressure that 's been over us and giving us great weather lately and pushed Irma farther west till it broke up to next to nothing and is now coming through.
The high is almost stalled just to the east of us over the Atlantic and it's rotation will help usher Jose up the coast. Hopefully the high will slowly move more east and allow Jose an out to clear us.
There are a couple spaghetti predictions that say if the high stalls then Jose could also stall and do another loop just south of NE. That would probably be the worst case scenario.
I think best case scenario is still gonna cause quite a bit of beach erosion and some coastal flooding, especially for The Cape and the islands as Jose just brushes us to the SE.
As a guy who wants to learn more about forecasting, where do you get this information? weather.gov?
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Old 09-15-2017, 06:34 AM   #20
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Here is an update
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