Notices

2017 Snapper Season

Old 05-01-2017, 06:41 AM
  #1  
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 612
Default 2017 Snapper Season

http://sero.nmfs.noaa.gov/sustainabl...eason_2017.pdf

I'm sure most of you already know we won't get a snapper season this year, just 2-3 days and starting on June 1st. We all knew it was coming so no real surprise but what I did find interesting is how they decided to come up with the conclusion that the states underestimated their catch. REALLY!! Who decided that??!! This shit is just laughable now. Oh, and CFA got 49 days, interesting?
mullet76 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 06:47 AM
  #2  
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 43
Default

It's all laughable these days of what excuses these guys can use. Next year we wont even have a federal season. The funniest thing I read said that if RF-40 would not have been implemented and there were no state seasons, we would have between 15-19 days.

You telling me that if 5 states cannot catch snapper all those days, you would only give us two extra weeks. My 2 year old can do better math than these council tards.
headedwest21 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 07:39 AM
  #3  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Posts: 605
Default

You can't tell me that the federal for hire sector caught fewer snapper with a longer season than we recreational anglers did with a shorter season. It's BS
KnottyGirlGrady is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 07:52 AM
  #4  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Orange Beach, Al.
Posts: 1,039
Default

Originally Posted by KnottyGirlGrady View Post
You can't tell me that the federal for hire sector caught fewer snapper with a longer season than we recreational anglers did with a shorter season. It's BS
Yeah and the Charter boats here fishing out of orange Beach were running 2 trips a day every day , so that Doubled there catch , most likely they didn't Report but one trip a day.
amarcafina is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 08:07 AM
  #5  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SE Missouri (with a salt water habit)
Posts: 1,444
Default

Originally Posted by amarcafina View Post
Yeah and the Charter boats here fishing out of orange Beach were running 2 trips a day every day , so that Doubled there catch , most likely they didn't Report but one trip a day.
How dare you make such an outlandish accusation......

From Page 10.

"There was little variability in headboat input data in recent years due to near perfect reporting compliance."

Mark
mlanzotti is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 08:13 AM
  #6  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SE Missouri (with a salt water habit)
Posts: 1,444
Default

For those of you who thinks Louisiana's efforts to count fish are "better" than the Feds MRIP....put this in your pipe and smoke it...

"The LA Creel survey is currently under review and undergoing certification from NOAA Fisheries; preliminary findings suggest no significantdifference in red snapper landings between LA Creel and MRIP private angler mode survey estimates in 2015 (J. Shepard, LDWF, pers. comm.)"

Never mind there have been years when the Feds have overestimated LA catch by an order of magnitude....
mlanzotti is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 08:34 AM
  #7  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 945
Default

Ok so what is this saying? I'm coming to Venice next month. June 3 thru 10. The Fed season will be closed and state open? I'm confused. Thanks
x4man514 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 09:01 AM
  #8  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SE Missouri (with a salt water habit)
Posts: 1,444
Default

And here we go into hocus pocus. This reminds me of certain election scenarios where certain democratic strongholds in Chicago were always the last to report results b/c conventional wisdom suggests they were waiting to see how many votes they needed to report...

Predictive covariates considered for regressions on average weight and catch rates were....(6) Google trends data, (7) per capita gross domestic product (GDP), (8) red snapper recreational quota, and (9) fish-able days based on weather.

Let's take this piece by piece...

"Google trends"....
"Google trends (www.google.com/trends/) in searches for the phrase “red snapper season”
between January and March were explored because red snapper catch rates have been shown to
be well predicted by Google search counts (Carter et al. 2015). Search counts are adjusted by
Google to make comparisons between terms easier; each point is divided by the total searches of
the geography and time range it represents, with relative popularity scaled on a range from 0 to
100.

I'm sure this is reliable....hogwash. So let me see...a local TV station creates a series on ridiculous red snapper fishery regulations and the barons who profit from it...people hear about it and want to learn more so they search for it...voila catch efforts go up and seasons go down. Take that you peasants!

"GDP" Macro-trend analysis.
Per capita GDP was included because it is an indicator of the economic status of the United States overall, which may predict the ability of recreational anglers to afford to take trips for red snapper

Key word here is "may". No citational support or statistical analysis given to support this. Average GDP growth 2-3% (except 2008). Voila 3% more fishing effort year over year.

"Fishable Days"
Days with mean wind force measurements exceeding 8.75 m/s (17
knots) or mean wave heights exceeding 1.2 m (4 ft) were not considered fishable.

What percentage of boat owners have craft adequate to fish comfortably/safely in 4' seas. Also note the description "Days". 24 hour in a day. If it's calm overnight and seas are less than 4' that's a fish able day. Never mind if during daylight hours it blows like hell. Not that hard to figure out what days you could fish vs not when over last few years you just have to look at handful of days.

This whole report reminds of bureaucratic tripe. Some seemingly salient points book ending outlandish techniques/methods/ideas create the morass that allows then to rig the system.
mlanzotti is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 09:02 AM
  #9  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SE Missouri (with a salt water habit)
Posts: 1,444
Default

Originally Posted by x4man514 View Post
Ok so what is this saying? I'm coming to Venice next month. June 3 thru 10. The Fed season will be closed and state open? I'm confused. Thanks
Yes
mlanzotti is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 09:21 AM
  #10  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: SE Missouri (with a salt water habit)
Posts: 1,444
Default

In the end this 2-3 day season may provide energy for HB 2023 so that is a good thing.

Mark

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-.../2023/all-info
mlanzotti is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 09:36 AM
  #11  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 945
Default

Jack legs don't care how many long distance long term plans they screw up.
x4man514 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 09:41 AM
  #12  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Waste-N-Away in Mobile, AL & Pensacola, FL
Posts: 4,389
Default

the fact that they would only give us 10 - 13 more days without the state seasons supports the facts that the states are doing the right thing. the 2 days season may actually be the slap in the face the media needs to get this back in national news. sooner or later the wheels are going to come off for these scumbags and we will get regional management of some sort
bhales is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 10:58 AM
  #13  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Pascagoula, MS
Posts: 1,089
Default

Originally Posted by bhales View Post
the fact that they would only give us 10 - 13 more days without the state seasons supports the facts that the states are doing the right thing. the 2 days season may actually be the slap in the face the media needs to get this back in national news. sooner or later the wheels are going to come off for these scumbags and we will get regional management of some sort
I believe that I am starting to feel this way as well. If (and when) they announce a 2 day season, that will certainly get some attention - and not in a positive way.

I guess we shall see soon enough. My understanding was the official announcement was going to be on 5/1, today.

This is also a glaring example of how they will throw out bogus theories to make it work in their favor to shorten the season - "The private angling component overage was attributable primarily to underestimation of state catches" - that is completely false. While the states have difference catch reporting methods, they are all far more accurate than what the fed has. The fed just doesn't like the state info since it doesn't support their predetermined agenda.

Also this is another beauty - "Due to inconsistent state seasons, approximately 81 percent of the private angling component ACT is anticipated to be caught during state seasons in 2017.". It should be noted that on a prior memo issued a few weeks earlier that is on the Gulf Council site (http://gulfcouncil.org/news_resource...ril%202017.pdf) the range was expected to be 77-79% - I guess those lower ranges didn't give them the answer they wanted. Either way, if these percents were remotely true, it is glaring evidence that NOAA's overall stock assessment is off the charts wrong. This would mean that almost the entire quota is caught within the state water boundaries on relatively short state seasons by a bunch of weekend warriors. If this is true just how many snapper are in the 100's of miles of federal water? Alabama alone has over 1000 artificial reefs in federal water and 100 or less in state water. When you think about what they are saying, they are essentially admitting that there has to be exponentially more snapper population that they admit to.
rebelles is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 11:25 AM
  #14  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: 70605
Posts: 2,160
Default

What's the over/under on pounds we recs will exceed quota with a two day season?
Snapper MAFIA needs to be hit with RICO charges as does the Gulf Cartel.
Kenner 23 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 11:41 AM
  #15  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Heart of Dixie
Posts: 1,948
Default

I have found the best way to deal with the feds is a Magma Grill. It's never more fresh than on the boat.
tbaxl is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 01:26 PM
  #16  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Pascagoula, MS
Posts: 1,089
Default

Originally Posted by Kenner 23 View Post
What's the over/under on pounds we recs will exceed quota with a two day season?
Snapper MAFIA needs to be hit with RICO charges as does the Gulf Cartel.
I am not sure how much they will decide the overfishing was but you can bet they will.

The other interesting note in the document I linked was this section:

"The Council decided to initiate a framework action that considers adjusting the buffer that sets the recreational red snapper annual catch target at 20% below the annual catch limit. That buffer was put in to place as an in-season accountability measure to decrease the probability that landings exceed the quota."

So NMFS says that 81% of the rec catch is caught during the state season and they want to kick in a 20% buffer (i.e. target the allowable catch at 20% less than the annual allowable catch authorized for rec to reduce the risk over exceeding it). By my math, they are essentially saying that there will be no fed season in the future if this is implemented since the quota would already by 81% caught in state waters - 1% over the 20% buffer factor. How about that for some fuzzy math from the Feds!
rebelles is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 04:04 PM
  #17  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 945
Default

Originally Posted by rebelles View Post
I believe that I am starting to feel this way as well. If (and when) they announce a 2 day season, that will certainly get some attention - and not in a positive way.

I guess we shall see soon enough. My understanding was the official announcement was going to be on 5/1, today.

This is also a glaring example of how they will throw out bogus theories to make it work in their favor to shorten the season - "The private angling component overage was attributable primarily to underestimation of state catches" - that is completely false. While the states have difference catch reporting methods, they are all far more accurate than what the fed has. The fed just doesn't like the state info since it doesn't support their predetermined agenda.

Also this is another beauty - "Due to inconsistent state seasons, approximately 81 percent of the private angling component ACT is anticipated to be caught during state seasons in 2017.". It should be noted that on a prior memo issued a few weeks earlier that is on the Gulf Council site (http://gulfcouncil.org/news_resource...ril%202017.pdf) the range was expected to be 77-79% - I guess those lower ranges didn't give them the answer they wanted. Either way, if these percents were remotely true, it is glaring evidence that NOAA's overall stock assessment is off the charts wrong. This would mean that almost the entire quota is caught within the state water boundaries on relatively short state seasons by a bunch of weekend warriors. If this is true just how many snapper are in the 100's of miles of federal water? Alabama alone has over 1000 artificial reefs in federal water and 100 or less in state water. When you think about what they are saying, they are essentially admitting that there has to be exponentially more snapper population that they admit to.

Okay , so am I to understand they made this decision today?

Has anything been said for sure?
x4man514 is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 04:40 PM
  #18  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Pascagoula, MS
Posts: 1,089
Default

Originally Posted by x4man514 View Post
Okay , so am I to understand they made this decision today?

Has anything been said for sure?
Based on their previous announcements, they were supposed to announce the Fed season after all the states did or not later than May 1st. I have not seen an announcement come out today. Maybe they are going to wait on MS who hasn't announced their season yet. Who knows. As evidenced by they way they handle all the other items, they probably will just adjust their guidance to whatever suits them.
rebelles is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 04:53 PM
  #19  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Texas
Posts: 5,397
Default

Originally Posted by mlanzotti View Post
For those of you who thinks Louisiana's efforts to count fish are "better" than the Feds MRIP....put this in your pipe and smoke it...

"The LA Creel survey is currently under review and undergoing certification from NOAA Fisheries; preliminary findings suggest no significantdifference in red snapper landings between LA Creel and MRIP private angler mode survey estimates in 2015 (J. Shepard, LDWF, pers. comm.)"

Never mind there have been years when the Feds have overestimated LA catch by an order of magnitude....
Haha, yeah


until REC pull there heads out of there ass and figure out the FEDs are not our friends and no matter what data or how good the data is, the REC anglers will keep getting screwed. All this BS about better data is just that, bullshit to keep REC anglers chasing there tail. No amount of data will make any difference as long as the FEDs are in control. RECs need to figure this out, if not we are doomed for more of the same shit every year. And it will only get worst as the same screwed up management from the FEDs will be used on other species like it is doing now with AJ's, trigger, grouper, etc...ling, kings, and tuna are all next
Jeepman is offline  
Old 05-01-2017, 08:44 PM
  #20  
Admirals Club Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 32
Default

Reading this report reminds me of a quote one of my college economic professors liked to say "These ratios were created by accountants to confuse." It appears that the ARS population and my fishing success can be accurately extrapolated by an actuary that has probably never seen the light of day much less the back of my boat in a 2-3 foot sea (fishable but not enjoyable by anyone). It also appears from Table 3 that you other boys not in Alabama need to up your abilities because Alabama private boats outfish all the other states all day long even though we have the least amount of coastline. Reading this report while mathematically interesting is a travesty to natural resources management.
Hippycpa is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread