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Next up- Invest 94L

Old 09-07-2019, 04:19 AM
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Default Next up- Invest 94L

This is taking life just off the Cabo Verde Islands, a spot that has historically spawned some of the more powerful tropical cyclones.
Suspect we'll need to keep an eye on it as it's looking to become "Humberto" in the next few days.

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Old 09-07-2019, 05:16 AM
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Yep........... At least I still have my gas cans filled!

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms a few hundred
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible, and a tropical depression could form by the
middle of next week while the system moves westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Last edited by Gary M; 09-07-2019 at 06:24 AM.
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Old 09-07-2019, 05:44 AM
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Those that start at those latitudes usually find a landfall somewhere. This one will need watching next week.
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Old 09-07-2019, 12:39 PM
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I get a bad feeling when LJS starts a storm thread.....
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Old 09-07-2019, 06:39 PM
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I've followed this guy's tweets for the last few years to stay informed about the tropics. His insights and predictions are very good and usually ahead of even NOAA twitter.com/ryanmaue
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Old 09-08-2019, 10:06 AM
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Take a look at the long range GFS forecast out to 2 weeks; has storm(hurricane) making landfall on FL east coast, path very
similar to Dorian prior to landfall. Yes, a lot of things can change between in that time period, but definitely bears watching.
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Old 09-09-2019, 04:53 AM
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I rifled through some data on this one this morning and atmospheric conditions have changed from what they were projected to be when I first started this post.
I'm starting to think this may actually struggle to develop into anything of consequence, at least near turn,but it's way too early to turn our backs on it.
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Old 09-09-2019, 08:02 AM
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Oh yes, the most active part of the season is here and now. This is definitely going to be the storm of the century, perhaps a Cat 1, maybe a Cat 5. It's definitely going to hit FL, or not. Jim Cantore better get prepared. No need to buy any more supplies, we still have what we got for Dorian, except the snacks. The snacks were gone before it left the Bahamas. Seriously though, keep an eye on this one, and the next one, and the next one.
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Old 09-09-2019, 11:08 AM
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Seems like every time people are focused on a storm that’s close. The weather channel and others like to bring up “another system to keep an eye on.” Even before the current storm has made landfall...
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Old 09-09-2019, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by TiaraYOF View Post
Seems like every time people are focused on a storm that’s close. The weather channel and others like to bring up “another system to keep an eye on.” Even before the current storm has made landfall...
being made aware of other systems that are brewing is a bad thing?
I think it's foolish for anyone who lives in a hurricane prone area to not have a general idea of what is happening in the tropics.
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Old 09-09-2019, 01:27 PM
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how else are they going to increase their ad revenue and such?
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Old 09-09-2019, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by coores14 View Post
being made aware of other systems that are brewing is a bad thing?
I think it's foolish for anyone who lives in a hurricane prone area to not have a general idea of what is happening in the tropics.
Not saying awareness is bad or this thread. My point is to the news and weather shows that never seem to miss the opportunity to tell people about future storms while they are preparing for a storm. Once they realized Dorian wouldn’t affect FL they started saying there’s more to watch in the tropics. Like grasping at straws when they realize the lime light is fleeting.

Also really enjoy your Blackfin thread!
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Old 09-09-2019, 06:21 PM
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Originally Posted by TiaraYOF View Post


Not saying awareness is bad or this thread. My point is to the news and weather shows that never seem to miss the opportunity to tell people about future storms while they are preparing for a storm. Once they realized Dorian wouldn’t affect FL they started saying there’s more to watch in the tropics. Like grasping at straws when they realize the lime light is fleeting.

Also really enjoy your Blackfin thread!
Why watch any news channel for tropical weather?

They get their info from NOAA and the NHC. Yep, the guys with the airplanes, weather balloons, buoys and all of the satellite info. The same info that feeds all the models that everyone hypes up which is computer generated off the exact same data sets.

Read the discussion part of the NHC forecast and go from there. The rest are just feeding and guessing off of info from equipment they don't deploy or own.

Do you think for one minute that the NOAA Orion aircraft while flying in the center of the storm is calling the weather channel and Jim Cantore.

The dummies wouldn't even know where the next invest was coming from...

F all the models. That cone that the NHC puts out is always very wide at 72 hours out for a good reason. Those that want to make more of that than what it is are just selling advertisement.

I have never seen any form of advertisement when I click on the National hurricane centers website!
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Old 09-09-2019, 08:49 PM
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Pretty sure he’s suggesting the news outlets sensationalize... I agree. It borders on irresponsibility imo.

And it has has nothing to do with me being aware and vigilant during storm season, it has to do with ratings and amping up the drama to keep viewers’ attention.
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Old 09-10-2019, 05:43 AM
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20biminitwist, I always respect your posts. What do you make of Invest94L today ?Capt. Billy/Right Stuff
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Old 09-10-2019, 05:59 AM
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Originally Posted by dolphin44 View Post
20biminitwist, I always respect your posts. What do you make of Invest94L today ?Capt. Billy/Right Stuff
The NHC has lowered the chance of development. Looks to me all 3 areas are going to be seeing a lot of upper level shear as they get closer.

I'm watching the one approaching the Bahamas and expected to cross the southern half of the state and get into the gulf by the weekend. Looks to be nothing more than some increased rainfall. I don't trust them that make it into the gulf this time of year with the water temps we have right now.
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Old 09-11-2019, 06:13 AM
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20biminitwist, thank you for your response, With the high temps we've been experiencing, east central coast fl, rain without heavy wind will be a welcome relief. Thank you again. Capt. Billy/Right Stuff
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Old 09-11-2019, 06:24 AM
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One in the same


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Old 09-11-2019, 07:40 AM
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1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern
Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few
hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.
Limited development of this system is anticipated today or
tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more
favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the
west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over
the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this
disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida
during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Old 09-11-2019, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by 20biminitwist View Post
Why watch any news channel for tropical weather?

They get their info from NOAA and the NHC. Yep, the guys with the airplanes, weather balloons, buoys and all of the satellite info. The same info that feeds all the models that everyone hypes up which is computer generated off the exact same data sets.

Read the discussion part of the NHC forecast and go from there. The rest are just feeding and guessing off of info from equipment they don't deploy or own.

Do you think for one minute that the NOAA Orion aircraft while flying in the center of the storm is calling the weather channel and Jim Cantore.

The dummies wouldn't even know where the next invest was coming from...

F all the models. That cone that the NHC puts out is always very wide at 72 hours out for a good reason. Those that want to make more of that than what it is are just selling advertisement.

I have never seen any form of advertisement when I click on the National hurricane centers website!
I've been saying that for years. My wife was glued to the local news for news on Dorian as initially it was supposed to run us over in Central Florida. I kept telling her, ignore them read the nhc page. That's where all of the weather guessers get there info from. Personally I have a strong dislike for the weather guesser she likes to watch.( I watched him on tv telling us that Irmas turn started before Key Largo. It was the same wobble that Irma had since it came out of the Islands. She go north them south and repeat.) I'd rather listen or read from the people that study this day in and day out 365 not someone who reads the same report and puts there spin on it 2 or 3 times a year.

One of the weather guys I did happen to see in passing said that the cones are based on the margin of error from previous years. Each year they get a little better which I do beleive.
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