TS Dorian Watch
08-25-2019, 07:06 AM
#1
Senior Member
Thread Starter
TS Dorian Watch
Not liking the long term spaghetti models at this point for the Keys but I guess, on the bright side, it doesn't at the moment look as though it's going to get great conditions for any serious development. Fingers crossed!
Popular Reply
09-03-2019, 11:37 AM
Admirals Club 
Personal vessels heading over this weekend is a very bad idea..... I don't think people understand the level of complete destruction that area just underwent. There will be no shelter, food, water, or medical supplies. If anything happens, you are SOL and only become a larger burden for the real rescue teams. People will also be desperate to get off the islands and unfortunately this may become a dangerous situation. I'm reading about how people saying they will be carrying just in case....you people are clueless. What are you going to do pull out a gun and shoot someone? This is another huge problem waiting to happen. I can't believe some of the stuff I'm reading on social media.
I understand the need to go help but, this is way more than cruising over to the Bahamas to drop off supplies. This is a rescue mission where helicopters, planes, and large working vessels will be needed. They need to get people off the islands and transported to safer areas. There shouldn't be a bunch of personal CC's running around anywhere near that area within the next week or two.
PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THIS LONG AND HARD BEFORE PUTTING YOURSELF IN A VERY BAD SITUATION.
I understand the need to go help but, this is way more than cruising over to the Bahamas to drop off supplies. This is a rescue mission where helicopters, planes, and large working vessels will be needed. They need to get people off the islands and transported to safer areas. There shouldn't be a bunch of personal CC's running around anywhere near that area within the next week or two.
PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THIS LONG AND HARD BEFORE PUTTING YOURSELF IN A VERY BAD SITUATION.
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08-25-2019, 10:28 AM
#5
Senior Member
Always a good place to get info when stuff fire up. Over the last few years I've found Levi to be great at explaining things and as good, if not better than most other prognosticators. Just another tool in your toolbelt this time of year.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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08-25-2019, 06:45 PM
#6
Admirals Club
Originally Posted by PJHoffnet
Always a good place to get info when stuff fire up. Over the last few years I've found Levi to be great at explaining things and as good, if not better than most other prognosticators. Just another tool in your toolbelt this time of year.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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08-26-2019, 04:29 AM
#10
Senior Member
Originally Posted by aa331
Does this chart read that its to weaken after Friday to a depression? <39 mph or is weakness common to see so many days ahead in this forecast because of uncertainly.
Thanks
Thanks
The NHC forecast discussion is something I recommend reading in addition to the maps.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/260849.shtml
08-26-2019, 04:31 AM
#11
Senior Member
Originally Posted by aa331
Does this chart read that its to weaken after Friday to a depression? <39 mph or is weakness common to see so many days ahead in this forecast because of uncertainly.
Thanks
Thanks
Edit: Yes it is showing it as a depression over the bahamas.
08-26-2019, 06:41 AM
#12
Senior Member
Thread Starter
This mornings update shows weakening to a TD after the storm passes over Hispaniola.
It's a small storm that's projected to battle fairly significant wind shear and there is also a lot of very dry air aloft which impedes development.
The track also appears to be shifting slightly to the right of South Florida.
All in all, rooting for the current forecast to be correct.
It's a small storm that's projected to battle fairly significant wind shear and there is also a lot of very dry air aloft which impedes development.
The track also appears to be shifting slightly to the right of South Florida.
All in all, rooting for the current forecast to be correct.
08-26-2019, 09:47 AM
#15
Admirals Club
New forecast shows it as a TS over the Bahamas 5 days out. Windy.com (euro) shows it coming ashore in Vero and heading up the east side of the state then back out to sea around Brunswick, GA.
08-26-2019, 10:40 AM
#16
Senior Member
I taker any storm 5+ days out with a grain of salt. Predictions for the path have gotten pretty good if you understand what they say. I can't stand when the TV stations these predictions with the line which is 100% meaningless. They shouldn't even have the map with the line since most people do not know that it really has no meaning.
Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
08-26-2019, 11:01 AM
#17
Admirals Club
Originally Posted by VTXrider
I taker any storm 5+ days out with a grain of salt. Predictions for the path have gotten pretty good if you understand what they say. I can't stand when the TV stations these predictions with the line which is 100% meaningless. They shouldn't even have the map with the line since most people do not know that it really has no meaning.
Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
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08-26-2019, 11:16 AM
#18
Senior Member
Originally Posted by Head Kned
Yeah I will be too. We have a Bahamas trip planned for Labor Day. Im hoping this thing fizzles...
Keys trip planned for me. Sorry but I'll be rooting for you to get whatever remains of the storm. hopefully there is enough sheer so that it is just a rain event.
08-26-2019, 11:24 AM
#19
Admirals Club
Windy has been the most accurate in latest storms, I'll post this one and let see. Vero Beach 7AM Sunday.
I hope it stays to the East.
I hope it stays to the East.
08-26-2019, 11:55 AM
#20
Admirals Club
Yaah, I use windy as well and the waves forecast for Sunday is ugly.
