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TS Dorian Watch

Old 08-25-2019, 06:06 AM
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Default TS Dorian Watch

Not liking the long term spaghetti models at this point for the Keys but I guess, on the bright side, it doesn't at the moment look as though it's going to get great conditions for any serious development. Fingers crossed!

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09-03-2019, 10:37 AM
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Personal vessels heading over this weekend is a very bad idea..... I don't think people understand the level of complete destruction that area just underwent. There will be no shelter, food, water, or medical supplies. If anything happens, you are SOL and only become a larger burden for the real rescue teams. People will also be desperate to get off the islands and unfortunately this may become a dangerous situation. I'm reading about how people saying they will be carrying just in case....you people are clueless. What are you going to do pull out a gun and shoot someone? This is another huge problem waiting to happen. I can't believe some of the stuff I'm reading on social media.

I understand the need to go help but, this is way more than cruising over to the Bahamas to drop off supplies. This is a rescue mission where helicopters, planes, and large working vessels will be needed. They need to get people off the islands and transported to safer areas. There shouldn't be a bunch of personal CC's running around anywhere near that area within the next week or two.



PEOPLE THINK ABOUT THIS LONG AND HARD BEFORE PUTTING YOURSELF IN A VERY BAD SITUATION.
Old 08-25-2019, 06:24 AM
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Better head to Wally World, stock up on your gas and stuff now. It’s gonna be a shitshow next week.
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Old 08-25-2019, 07:09 AM
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Wow more rain, we really could use more rain
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Old 08-25-2019, 08:16 AM
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Just in time to screw up Labor Day weekend plans. Hoping the islands tear it apart more than they are predicting.
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Old 08-25-2019, 09:28 AM
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Always a good place to get info when stuff fire up. Over the last few years I've found Levi to be great at explaining things and as good, if not better than most other prognosticators. Just another tool in your toolbelt this time of year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
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Old 08-25-2019, 05:45 PM
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Originally Posted by PJHoffnet View Post
Always a good place to get info when stuff fire up. Over the last few years I've found Levi to be great at explaining things and as good, if not better than most other prognosticators. Just another tool in your toolbelt this time of year.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Haven’t seen that site before. That’s great info.
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Old 08-25-2019, 06:42 PM
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Yawn. The Best place to be is right in the path in a 5+ day forecast.
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Old 08-26-2019, 02:46 AM
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Labor Day weekend a bust ?




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Old 08-26-2019, 02:49 AM
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Does this chart read that its to weaken after Friday to a depression? <39 mph or is weakness common to see so many days ahead in this forecast because of uncertainly.

Thanks

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Old 08-26-2019, 03:29 AM
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Originally Posted by aa331 View Post
Does this chart read that its to weaken after Friday to a depression? <39 mph or is weakness common to see so many days ahead in this forecast because of uncertainly.

Thanks
The weakening is due to interaction with Hispaniola (terrain) and some increasing wind shear aloft that is not favorable for tropical systems.

The NHC forecast discussion is something I recommend reading in addition to the maps.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refres...l/260849.shtml
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Old 08-26-2019, 03:31 AM
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Originally Posted by aa331 View Post
Does this chart read that its to weaken after Friday to a depression? <39 mph or is weakness common to see so many days ahead in this forecast because of uncertainly.

Thanks

The NHC sees something that they think will keep the storm from intensifying after it comes off Haiti. I haven't started reading about it yet but it is probably wind shear that will increase while it is over the bahamas. That area is prime environment for a hurricane and with it being a small storm it can intensify rapidly. They must see something in their models that is very convincing to them to not have it strengthening there. Hopefully they are right.

Edit: Yes it is showing it as a depression over the bahamas.
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Old 08-26-2019, 05:41 AM
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This mornings update shows weakening to a TD after the storm passes over Hispaniola.
It's a small storm that's projected to battle fairly significant wind shear and there is also a lot of very dry air aloft which impedes development.
The track also appears to be shifting slightly to the right of South Florida.
All in all, rooting for the current forecast to be correct.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:44 AM
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getting closer
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:47 AM
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Latest NHC advisories and spaghetti models don't look good for south Florida, keep an eye on it! Expected to maintain tropical storm winds after passing over the islands now.
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Old 08-26-2019, 08:47 AM
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New forecast shows it as a TS over the Bahamas 5 days out. Windy.com (euro) shows it coming ashore in Vero and heading up the east side of the state then back out to sea around Brunswick, GA.
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Old 08-26-2019, 09:40 AM
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I taker any storm 5+ days out with a grain of salt. Predictions for the path have gotten pretty good if you understand what they say. I can't stand when the TV stations these predictions with the line which is 100% meaningless. They shouldn't even have the map with the line since most people do not know that it really has no meaning.

Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
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Old 08-26-2019, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by VTXrider View Post
I taker any storm 5+ days out with a grain of salt. Predictions for the path have gotten pretty good if you understand what they say. I can't stand when the TV stations these predictions with the line which is 100% meaningless. They shouldn't even have the map with the line since most people do not know that it really has no meaning.

Everyone should buy supplies now or better yet have bought them before any hint of a storm but as far as how to put preparations into motion, I'll be looking closer at Wednesday.
Yeah I will be too. We have a Bahamas trip planned for Labor Day. Im hoping this thing fizzles...
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Old 08-26-2019, 10:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Head Kned View Post
Yeah I will be too. We have a Bahamas trip planned for Labor Day. Im hoping this thing fizzles...

Keys trip planned for me. Sorry but I'll be rooting for you to get whatever remains of the storm. hopefully there is enough sheer so that it is just a rain event.
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Old 08-26-2019, 10:24 AM
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Windy has been the most accurate in latest storms, I'll post this one and let see. Vero Beach 7AM Sunday.

I hope it stays to the East.


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Old 08-26-2019, 10:55 AM
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Yaah, I use windy as well and the waves forecast for Sunday is ugly.
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