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The Everything Bubble has burst & recession has started.

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The Everything Bubble has burst & recession has started.

Old 02-25-2019, 03:18 PM
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All these comments are like 2007 deja vu.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:47 PM
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Funny..I don't remember everyone saying how bad it was going to get until after the housing collapse had already happened. Then, there were many on here bragging how they "saw it coming". I guess they just wanted to keep it a secret.

I do remember asking about a cruiser style boat (in ~2002), and everyone was telling me what a glut there was of them.

Oddly enough, the prices of those never never did get much cheaper.

Originally Posted by caltexflanc View Post
All these comments are like 2007 deja vu.

Last edited by Joe; 02-25-2019 at 05:01 PM.
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Old 02-25-2019, 04:53 PM
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2007 was fairly easy to predict...FASB 157 going into effect. It wasn't until it was reversed in 2009 that the markets started to climb.
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Old 02-25-2019, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by catmandoo1 View Post
If you think Texas Roadhouse is good eating, you are not a very fussy eater. Just like people who think Taco Bell is Mexican food.Just saying you might want to expand your eating horizons.JMHO
I knew some elitest ______ would make such a comment and I thought about not including the name of the restaurant...then I realized I know what's good and what isn't and that I also don't give a s#!t about your opinion. I am a very picky eater with a very limited menu. As long as it's meat and potatoes I'm good. You obviously have not had a filet, New York Strip, or ribeye at the Texas Roadhouse in Wake Forest NC. What's better in your opinion? Not the Angus Barn, Ruth's Chris, nor Firebird's, I've had steaks there many times and Texas Roadhouse beats them all for flavor (not atmosphere). I've never once gotten a bad steak at Texas but have at each of the higher priced establishments I mentioned.
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Old 02-25-2019, 05:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Uncas View Post
The 2020 elections, and the buildup to them, will ultimately signal which way our US financial winds will be blowing....
I was wondering if the source was putting any faith in what the media will be predicting for the next election. Of course the media will say Trump has no chance just like they all did last time. Truth is, he'll win again and there won't be a recession while he's in office. His policies don't support failure.
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Old 02-25-2019, 05:35 PM
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Originally Posted by catmandoo1 View Post
If you think Texas Roadhouse is good eating, you are not a very fussy eater. Just like people who think Taco Bell is Mexican food.Just saying you might want to expand your eating horizons.JMHO
Originally Posted by baypro21 View Post
I knew some elitest ______ would make such a comment and I thought about not including the name of the restaurant...then I realized I know what's good and what isn't and that I also don't give a s#!t about your opinion. I am a very picky eater with a very limited menu. As long as it's meat and potatoes I'm good. You obviously have not had a filet, New York Strip, or ribeye at the Texas Roadhouse in Wake Forest NC. What's better in your opinion? Not the Angus Barn, Ruth's Chris, nor Firebird's, I've had steaks there many times and Texas Roadhouse beats them all for flavor (not atmosphere). I've never once gotten a bad steak at Texas but have at each of the higher priced establishments I mentioned.
Me likes the Steak Houses these "financial planners" pushing annuities are willing to pick up the tab.

They refer to some of us as Plate Lickers
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Old 02-25-2019, 06:25 PM
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Originally Posted by baypro21 View Post
I knew some elitest ______ would make such a comment and I thought about not including the name of the restaurant...then I realized I know what's good and what isn't and that I also don't give a s#!t about your opinion. I am a very picky eater with a very limited menu. As long as it's meat and potatoes I'm good. You obviously have not had a filet, New York Strip, or ribeye at the Texas Roadhouse in Wake Forest NC. What's better in your opinion? Not the Angus Barn, Ruth's Chris, nor Firebird's, I've had steaks there many times and Texas Roadhouse beats them all for flavor (not atmosphere). I've never once gotten a bad steak at Texas but have at each of the higher priced establishments I mentioned.
I've never been to the Texas Roadhouse in Wake Forest, but did sample some menu items of a waitress that worked there about a decade ago.



I gotta say Angus barn has always been on point for me...though the times I have been to Texas Roadhouse it's been excellent as well. You haven't properly sampled the steakhouses of this area until you check The Beefmastor Inn and The Peddler off your list though.
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Old 02-25-2019, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Re-Bait View Post
That's a pretty good write up by Crescat Cap and they had a great 2018 being short! I could argue many of the points but why bother??

In 2019 they are probably sucking some wind. Being long cash right now is very expensive. The market is up 11%. It's cost them plenty not being long. We will see, as zh posted today the market may be preparing for major spike. Which might be up, might be down.

My theory is that one should listen to all different market pontifications and not be reliant on 1 voice. That voice is going to be wrong sooner or later, and guys like this will have there day.

Their 5 yr numbers stink.
Bingo. They have a decent from-inception record and the data points they bring up are worth at least looking into further. I think some are taking it wrong here. It's a hedge fund and by nature of definition not something you should use as a primary investment but as, well, a hedge if you even want to go that route. The point is, look at the data and compare it to the others you're seeing.
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Old 02-25-2019, 09:22 PM
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So..how's the retired life? Seems like if one knew a collapse was coming..it would've been easy to make a lot of money.

Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
2007 was fairly easy to predict...FASB 157 going into effect. It wasn't until it was reversed in 2009 that the markets started to climb.
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Old 02-26-2019, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
So..how's the retired life? Seems like if one knew a collapse was coming..it would've been easy to make a lot of money.
one strategy, not without its risks, is to short or puts on the vix after it spikes. It's reactionary, but there is one potentially very lucrative play. Puts on leveraged funds like uvxy could be a major windfall.
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:33 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
I've never been to the Texas Roadhouse in Wake Forest, but did sample some menu items of a waitress that worked there about a decade ago.



I gotta say Angus barn has always been on point for me...though the times I have been to Texas Roadhouse it's been excellent as well. You haven't properly sampled the steakhouses of this area until you check The Beefmastor Inn and The Peddler off your list though.
I worked next to The Peddler from 1976 til 1992, they've been on the list for decades. Gale was a customer of ours. Very, very good but I will admit I don't frequent there but remember the visits well. I will also say I've only gotten one sub par steak at The Angus Barn with many many visits. It coincided with extremely bad service in the Wild Turkey Lounge (every steak I've gotten when in the main restaurant has been good). I stand by my assessment of Texas, every steak I've gotten there has been excellent. I will also say I am lucky in life. For those that have gotten bad steaks at Texas Roadhouse, sorry about your luck.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
So..how's the retired life? Seems like if one knew a collapse was coming..it would've been easy to make a lot of money.
I put all my money in money market funds in beginning of March 2007. I was 26...I wasn't posting on this site at the time (even though I've been a member here since 2002 or so), but there are plenty of people around the Chas area that know what I said and the reasons I said it. They doubted me, too.

I'll say it again...FASB 157 (Mark to Market) was slated to go in effect end of 1Q 2007. That is what started it all...the reversal of that rule is what "ended" it all. Was I lucky? Maybe...was it easy to see coming? Absolutely. Timing of the actual downfall(s) is another matter. The markets continued to climb a bit into 2007 and didn't start tumbling, in earnest, until 2008 or so.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:46 AM
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Frankly, the greatest issue I see on the 10-year horizon hinges on the current "30-somethings." I don't know if they're considered millennials or something else.

I was born at the end of the baby boom, and I see the vast numbers of US boomers retiring; and I see a YUUGE gap in skills/experience in those filling the senior leadership roles in companies. The numbers just aren't there.

There is a deficit between the senior managers, and the line managers in most big companies; and the college debt of the middle managers is preventing them from purchasing the homes enjoyed by the previous "generation." This will, I expect, impinge on growth rates we should be seeing.

As one graphic above points out, college debt is beginning to weigh on the broader economy - significantly.

But against all this, I don't see the US economy poised for a recession.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:54 AM
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Originally Posted by crazybeard View Post
Bingo. They have a decent from-inception record and the data points they bring up are worth at least looking into further. I think some are taking it wrong here. It's a hedge fund and by nature of definition not something you should use as a primary investment but as, well, a hedge if you even want to go that route. The point is, look at the data and compare it to the others you're seeing.
Agree on listening to multiple voices.
You did say this though. "What's most interesting is the cash positions smart money is taking." Puhlease.
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Sprockets View Post
In general, hedge funds are wrong more often than right. I certainly wouldn't follow anything a hedge fund manager says publicly. I've read many articles showing they underperform the market as a group.
you beat me to it.
This * 100.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:13 PM
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In 2007 you would have made you 24, correct?

You're a fortunate person to be able to have seen the crash coming, and plan for it, all at age 24.

Markets started dropping in Nov 2007.






Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
I put all my money in money market funds in beginning of March 2007. I was 26...I wasn't posting on this site at the time (even though I've been a member here since 2002 or so), but there are plenty of people around the Chas area that know what I said and the reasons I said it. They doubted me, too.

I'll say it again...FASB 157 (Mark to Market) was slated to go in effect end of 1Q 2007. That is what started it all...the reversal of that rule is what "ended" it all. Was I lucky? Maybe...was it easy to see coming? Absolutely. Timing of the actual downfall(s) is another matter. The markets continued to climb a bit into 2007 and didn't start tumbling, in earnest, until 2008 or so.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:20 PM
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One might think if they knew a crash was coming they would do just that, no?

Since I was broke back then,and "strategic foreclosures" became a "thing" about that time, looking back on it I probably should have made a 2nd and 3rd mortgage on my house, waited and bought 1 or 2 houses (with cash) when the market crashed, and "strategically defaulted" on my primary house.

But what did I know..I just kept my job and kept paying my mortgage.

Originally Posted by crazybeard View Post


one strategy, not without its risks, is to short or puts on the vix after it spikes. It's reactionary, but there is one potentially very lucrative play. Puts on leveraged funds like uvxy could be a major windfall.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:35 PM
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Chiming in on the steakhouse derail sub thread. I have never been to a Texas Roadhouse as we don't go out for steak much.
I got a $200 gift certificate to a "very high end" steakhouse and went with my wife and kids.
I knew $200 was not going to cut it so I took an extra $200 with me.
My son ordered a steak and it was so overcooked he sent it back. Replacement was almost as over cooked. At that point wtf?
Final check was close to $500 for 4 people. Maybe $100 in wine and beer.

Thanks for the "gift certificate" lol.
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Old 02-26-2019, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
I put all my money in money market funds in beginning of March 2007. I was 26...
You have to be right twice. When did you get back in? All in?
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Old 02-26-2019, 02:10 PM
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Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
I put all my money in money market funds in beginning of March 2007. I was 26...I wasn't posting on this site at the time (even though I've been a member here since 2002 or so), but there are plenty of people around the Chas area that know what I said and the reasons I said it. They doubted me, too.

I'll say it again...FASB 157 (Mark to Market) was slated to go in effect end of 1Q 2007. That is what started it all...the reversal of that rule is what "ended" it all. Was I lucky? Maybe...was it easy to see coming? Absolutely. Timing of the actual downfall(s) is another matter. The markets continued to climb a bit into 2007 and didn't start tumbling, in earnest, until 2008 or so.
The idea that a massive, complex recession can be blamed on one set of accounting standards is nonsense. FAS157 was certainly a BIG straw on the camel's back but it didn't "start it all." There were many, many other factors.

Also, the more lenient guidelines in 2009 did coincide with the bottom, but that's coincidental. The revised standards certainly helped, but the belief that they alone allowed the economy to find bottom ignores all the other successful actions the Fed and the Bush and Obama Admin's took to give the economy some lift.
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