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Car value bubble is about to pop...

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Car value bubble is about to pop...

Old 02-15-2019, 10:43 AM
  #121  
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Originally Posted by SouthpawHD View Post
So so let me ask this, is a 6, 7, or 8 year loan at 3% or 4% really that bad?
An 8 year note on a Lexus for household with 350K (or more) income is lost in the round off

A 6 year note on a <20K Mazda is reasonable for a 75K Household

The problem is when the 75K household buys the Lexus - they're forever within a paycheck of foreclosure and require another credit expenditure when it needs tires and if the AC goes out post warranty - well too bad.


Originally Posted by jobowker View Post
We are clearly too stupid as a society....
A good summation of middle/upper middle Americas financial position

Originally Posted by lurker25 View Post
$1.3 trillion. That's the total amount of auto-loan debt in the United States today
You would really be butt hurt (as I am) if you knew what Wall Street converted the 1.3 into.....smells kind of 2008ish
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:08 AM
  #122  
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To all you who "wish" for a recession - that can be a horrible thing for the economy and regardless of your financial position, you are NOT immune to it! While a recession is normal part of the the economic and business cycle, wishing for one is just nuts. Especially since we are still recovering from 2008.

And for those that say the answer to is buy used at 1/3 the cost, good for you. But for those of us in the north, a/k/a the Rust Belt, buying a higher mileage vehicle generally means body decay for us which leads to more expensive repairs, time in the shop, etc, so I try to avoid that when I can.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:26 AM
  #123  
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Originally Posted by SouthpawHD View Post
To all you who "wish" for a recession - that can be a horrible thing for the economy and regardless of your financial position, you are NOT immune to it! While a recession is normal part of the the economic and business cycle, wishing for one is just nuts. Especially since we are still recovering from 2008.

And for those that say the answer to is buy used at 1/3 the cost, good for you. But for those of us in the north, a/k/a the Rust Belt, buying a higher mileage vehicle generally means body decay for us which leads to more expensive repairs, time in the shop, etc, so I try to avoid that when I can.
So?

Buy a used vehicle from the south or even the southwest.

It's not so much hurray lets go financial hardships for everyone, it's we didnt seem to learn the first time so lets get this going and maybe we can learn this time. So need the hard lessons in life just to learn.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:29 AM
  #124  
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Originally Posted by olsaltydog View Post
So?

...So need the hard lessons in life just to learn.
The hard lesson seems to have been that we can create trillions of dollars out of thin air anytime we feel a need...so no aggregate debt really matters.
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Old 02-15-2019, 11:41 AM
  #125  
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Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post
The hard lesson seems to have been that we can create trillions of dollars out of thin air anytime we feel a need...so no aggregate debt really matters.
And that was not a hard lesson learned, that was a poor lesson, like when you make poor financial decisions and mommy and daddy swoop in and give you a ton of money. People, banks, companies, and even the government needs to learn financial responsibility.
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:08 PM
  #126  
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Originally Posted by SouthpawHD View Post
To all you who "wish" for a recession - that can be a horrible thing for the economy and regardless of your financial position, you are NOT immune to it! While a recession is normal part of the the economic and business cycle, wishing for one is just nuts. Especially since we are still recovering from 2008.

And for those that say the answer to is buy used at 1/3 the cost, good for you. But for those of us in the north, a/k/a the Rust Belt, buying a higher mileage vehicle generally means body decay for us which leads to more expensive repairs, time in the shop, etc, so I try to avoid that when I can.
Recovering? Shit I'm still spending and reinvesting 2008 money. We all have to live our own lives and that can extend to hoping for the best economic model that benefits our household and not one that simply perpetuates the financial bleed out of folks that overextended themselves. Put your kids on bread and water for the week while the neighbors that are getting daily pizza delivery - dad will be unpopular in a hurry.

I am a new vehicle buyer almost exclusively (bought 2 low mileage demos in the last 10 years) and get the doing it out of necessity that you face up north but "new" doesn't mean you have to get the 80K truck that stretches you to the hilt.
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by olsaltydog View Post
And that was not a hard lesson learned, that was a poor lesson, like when you make poor financial decisions and mommy and daddy swoop in and give you a ton of money. People, banks, companies, and even the government needs to learn financial responsibility.
Why?
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Old 02-15-2019, 12:32 PM
  #128  
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Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post
Why?
Exactly one person went to jail, the others got a minor hand slap and then quietly and quickly rebooted into a bigger, badder, better predator.....and then we made it easier than ever to buy a house you couldn't afford....and cars...and boats

Feed the monkey - watch him shit old timers used to say
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Old 02-15-2019, 01:40 PM
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Good old days were never that great and tomorrow not as bad as it seems.....
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:05 PM
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Originally Posted by SouthpawHD View Post
To all you who "wish" for a recession - that can be a horrible thing for the economy and regardless of your financial position, you are NOT immune to it! While a recession is normal part of the the economic and business cycle, wishing for one is just nuts. Especially since we are still recovering from 2008.

And for those that say the answer to is buy used at 1/3 the cost, good for you. But for those of us in the north, a/k/a the Rust Belt, buying a higher mileage vehicle generally means body decay for us which leads to more expensive repairs, time in the shop, etc, so I try to avoid that when I can.
Recession is not always a bad thing and is inevitable. It keeps inflation in check. It also give us poor guys a chance to buy properties cheap when the high rollers can't make their payments. I actually feel bad for young people today with the real estate and rental prices through the roof the way they are.

Last edited by bikem; 02-15-2019 at 02:15 PM.
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:27 PM
  #131  
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Originally Posted by ktdtx View Post
Can massage the numbers a lot of ways--surprising to me that the entire, accumulated debt of the country is only 17 times as much as the auto loan debt.
This.......the auto debt is relatively “fresh”.....the deficit is on a much larger scale per se.......would be interesting to see the 30-60-90 comparison on the same loans......most savvy consumers know that one retail credit(car loans, boat loans, CC, etc...) when you go over 30 you take the first hit on your credit
report, 60....bigger ding......90...your close to toast. Over 30 is the bellwether imho.......




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Old 02-15-2019, 02:30 PM
  #132  
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My salary is well above the median US salary. Even still I don't like the idea of paying more than $400 a month on a car payment, but for the purposes of this little thought experiment lets assume a $500 monthly payment and 0% interest on a new car loan.

With that in mind:

Honda Civic - $22k - 44 months- 4 years (or Similar compact car)
Honda CRV- $29k - 58 months - 5 years (or Similar small SUV)
Honda Pilot- $42k- 84 months - 7 years (or Similar 3 row family hauler)
Ford F-150 - $57k- 114 months 10 years (or Similar full size truck)

I can't imagine there are that many people out there that can afford $500 a month for a vehicle payment, let alone afford it for upwards of 10 years. This is completely unsustainable, and no surprise at all that it will fall apart before long.


Last edited by beber; 02-15-2019 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:32 PM
  #133  
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Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post
The hard lesson seems to have been that we can create trillions of dollars out of thin air anytime we feel a need...so no aggregate debt really matters.
correct to a point...ala what China just did writing off a chunk of “bad debt”.......hard assets though ...
thats cash flow for banks, credit unions, finance companies.......
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:34 PM
  #134  
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Originally Posted by Mpellet View Post
Good old days were never that great and tomorrow not as bad as it seems.....
My old days were GREAT, sorry to hear that for ya...
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:40 PM
  #135  
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I don't know what you do for a living, but if ts a white collar gig and you're over 50, start sending out some resumes and wait for the responses you won't get.

Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post
I guess his value propostion better include his future needs for mobility.
Seriously though. Just another excuse why you can't...we have a culture of can't that is pervasive.
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Old 02-15-2019, 02:49 PM
  #136  
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
I don't know what you do for a living, but if ts a white collar gig and you're over 50, start sending out some resumes and wait for the responses you won't get.
My responses come from positive relationships and affiliations cultivated over thirty years. They’re called customers, and mine produce revenue. If you’re anonymous at 50 that’s on you.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:23 PM
  #137  
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lol..ok man, whatever you say.

Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post

My responses come from positive relationships and affiliations cultivated over thirty years. They’re called customers, and mine produce revenue. If you’re anonymous at 50 that’s on you.
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Old 02-15-2019, 03:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
lol..ok man, whatever you say.
You approaching fifty with no employment prospects? You relying on a resume to get an interview with strangers?
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Old 02-15-2019, 04:32 PM
  #139  
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I'm already 50 and have a job.

Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post

You approaching fifty with no employment prospects? You relying on a resume to get an interview with strangers?
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Old 02-15-2019, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
I'm already 50 and have a job.
Then I assume you appreciate the value of people who know you and your work, and are placed in organizations that would hire you if you become available. The last job I got with a stranger was in 1983.
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