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Stock market is killing me! Erased growth from the past 2 years.

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Stock market is killing me! Erased growth from the past 2 years.

Old 12-25-2018, 09:18 PM
  #101  
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Originally Posted by WaterDamage View Post
Wise words. Most have no idea how easy it is to hit that 'sell' button, and how much better they will feel afterward. It's all about fear vs. greed.

Or if on the fence try selling half, or whatever allows you to sleep at night. If you can't sleep, your mind is telling you something.

Full disclaimer: I'm a small business owner in startup tech/IP/product development who's on a boating forum at 11pm EST on Christmas Day to keep a product launch on schedule, listening to Iron Maiden as I write this whilst regulating my blood pressure with a little fine whiskey, so on several levels my assessment of risk may be compromised.
I know all about "you can't time the market" but if its dropping like a rock selling is just common sense. I sold 80% of my retirement accounts a couple weeks ago. It took about 20 minutes online and didn't hurt a bit. I can buy back tomorrow if I want to but I don't think it's time to do so yet. The more it drops the more I make by not loosing, a penny saved is a penny earned.

I kept 12 stocks and 4 mutual funds that may or may not do well in the near term. Might sell a couple of them also. I'm not buying on the way down I can do just as well buying on the way up.

The hard part now is trying to figure if the rise (when it happens) is going to continue, be it a month or 6 months from now. but if I miss part of the rise no big deal if I can catch a good part of a continual rise.

A short time of little gain is much better that a short term of loosing a fair amount of gain. The ones I have kept have good dividends and are stable company's

Good luck to you all and I do hope it is not an extended bear market.

Dwight
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:59 AM
  #102  
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I'm at least 17 years from retirement and in my prime earning/investing years. Bring on the bargains!

2008/2009 sucked, but in the end I came out ahead because I didn't panic and just kept pumping money into my 401k. I don't see this being anywhere near as bad. Nothing to drive it. It's just a long overdue correction.
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Old 12-26-2018, 03:21 AM
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Originally Posted by dmartin View Post
I know all about "you can't time the market" but if its dropping like a rock selling is just common sense. I sold 80% of my retirement accounts a couple weeks ago. It took about 20 minutes online and didn't hurt a bit. I can buy back tomorrow if I want to but I don't think it's time to do so yet. The more it drops the more I make by not loosing, a penny saved is a penny earned.

I kept 12 stocks and 4 mutual funds that may or may not do well in the near term. Might sell a couple of them also. I'm not buying on the way down I can do just as well buying on the way up.

The hard part now is trying to figure if the rise (when it happens) is going to continue, be it a month or 6 months from now. but if I miss part of the rise no big deal if I can catch a good part of a continual rise.

A short time of little gain is much better that a short term of loosing a fair amount of gain. The ones I have kept have good dividends and are stable company's




Good luck to you all and I do hope it is not an extended bear market.

Dwight


Was this by choice?

Last edited by magua; 12-26-2018 at 04:24 AM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 03:55 AM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post

Except, $500,000 with 2% inflation has a loss of $5,000 of purchasing power......in 6 months

Bonds, in general, have been a bad investment long before the first interest rate increase in 2015. Again, the interest rates on treasuries, CD's, etc. meant a guaranteed loss of purchasing power.

Individual investors aren't alone in making bad investment decision. Just look at Fund turn over rates...
either your arithmetic skills or reading skills are failing.
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:12 AM
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Dow futures UP 33 right now! The turnaround has started (Until 0930).
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:38 AM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post

You do know buying stocks and a mutual is the same thing right? Except in a mutual fund you own stocks NEVER worth owning.
​​​​​​I know that it isn't. Clearly you don't.
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Old 12-26-2018, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by My Turn View Post
either your arithmetic skills or reading skills are failing.
If you want to think a 2-1/2% return is safe, so be it. However, when you factor in inflation on both the principal and interest and taxes. Your real return is probably negative. Throw in any kind of restriction, like a CD has, be it penalties or time constraint could lead to a missed opportunity with investment dollars.



Originally Posted by rickboat View Post
I know that it isn't. Clearly you don't.
An "index mutual" fund, as in based on an index like the S&P 500, is a basket of stocks. A portfolio of individual stocks is a basket of stocks. Same situation for total stock market or total international stock market.


How are they different?

Now, if you want to discuss currency risks, accounting standards and listing standards in some of those foreign markets you embrace in your total international stock market fund....

Last edited by aubv; 12-26-2018 at 06:49 AM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by magua View Post


Was this by choice?
Yes
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Old 12-26-2018, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by dmartin View Post
Yes
I will get back in eventually but for now I'm waiting and watching. I am retired and this is our retirement account. I bought a couple gold stocks, will need to keep a close eye on them.

Again good luck to all, I hope it's a short blip but I'm not too sure about that.
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Old 12-26-2018, 08:01 AM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post


If you want to think a 2-1/2% return is safe, so be it. However, when you factor in inflation on both the principal and interest and taxes. Your real return is probably negative. Throw in any kind of restriction, like a CD has, be it penalties or time constraint could lead to a missed opportunity with investment dollars.





An "index mutual" fund, as in based on an index like the S&P 500, is a basket of stocks. A portfolio of individual stocks is a basket of stocks. Same situation for total stock market or total international stock market.


How are they different?

Now, if you want to discuss currency risks, accounting standards and listing standards in some of those foreign markets you embrace in your total international stock market fund....
Clearly you are comfortable with owning your "basket of stocks" and beating the market. Glad you have the ability to beat the market, few do. And many that think they do actually don't. My "basket" has many more stocks in it than yours.

It's been proven that individual stock picking, as well as managed mutual funds, don't beat low cost index funds over time. And trying to time the market, including those that "jumped out" and are waiting to "jump back in", is a very poor strategy.

For those that want to know more:

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns (Little Books. Big Profits) by John Bogle (founder of Vanguard)

The Bogleheads' Guide to the Three-Fund Portfolio: How a Simple Portfolio of Three Total Market Index Funds Outperforms Most Investors with Less Risk by Taylor Larimore

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Main_Page
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Last edited by rickboat; 12-26-2018 at 08:09 AM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 08:04 AM
  #111  
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Originally Posted by dmartin View Post
I know all about "you can't time the market" but if its dropping like a rock selling is just common sense. I sold 80% of my retirement accounts a couple weeks ago. It took about 20 minutes online and didn't hurt a bit. I can buy back tomorrow if I want to but I don't think it's time to do so yet. The more it drops the more I make by not loosing, a penny saved is a penny earned.

I kept 12 stocks and 4 mutual funds that may or may not do well in the near term. Might sell a couple of them also. I'm not buying on the way down I can do just as well buying on the way up.

The hard part now is trying to figure if the rise (when it happens) is going to continue, be it a month or 6 months from now. but if I miss part of the rise no big deal if I can catch a good part of a continual rise.

A short time of little gain is much better that a short term of loosing a fair amount of gain. The ones I have kept have good dividends and are stable company's

Good luck to you all and I do hope it is not an extended bear market.

Dwight
It's actually not common sense. It's an emotional reaction that a person lacking a long term plan takes, whereas if they had a long term plan they not only wouldn't react, they might even notice.

How stable is GE? IBM?

It's best to prepare a plan, including an Asset Allocation (AA) that you're comfortable with, and then stick with it. You can't market time, no one can. What's worse is that you jumped out in a retirement fund, so you can't even use the losses on your taxes.
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Last edited by rickboat; 12-26-2018 at 02:13 PM.
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Old 12-26-2018, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by rickboat View Post
It's actual not common sense. It's an emotional reaction that a person lacking a long term plan takes, whereas if they had a long term plan they not only wouldn't react, they might even notice.

How stable is GE? IBM?

It's best to prepare a plan, including an Asset Allocation (AA) that you're comfortable with, and then stick with it. You can't market time, no one can. What's worse is that you jumped out in a retirement fund, so you can't even use the losses on your taxes.
You do love to give advice don't you. Lucky for me I don't need to follow your advice. Have a good day.

Dwight
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Old 12-26-2018, 01:00 PM
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Originally Posted by kone View Post
Dow futures UP 33 right now! The turnaround has started (Until 0930).
HOLY SHEAT was I ever wrong!!! Largest daily gain ever!

Oil?
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by dmartin View Post
You do love to give advice don't you. Lucky for me I don't need to follow your advice. Have a good day.

Dwight
My investments went up with the market today. Yours, sitting on the sidelines, did not.

It's not my advice. It's studies that have been done that have proven that you cannot time the market, and that owning individual stocks loses over index funds for nearly everyone. I listed several books, and a wiki on the Boglehead forum, that you may want to read. John Bogle knows more about investing than this entire forum added together.
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Old 12-26-2018, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by rickboat View Post
My investments went up with the market today. Yours, sitting on the sidelines, did not.

....
OTOH....he didn’t ride the elevator down sub 22000.
He sold about 15% ago.
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:00 PM
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Originally Posted by chrispnet View Post

OTOH....he didn’t ride the elevator down sub 22000.
He sold about 15% ago.
Yes I can watch for a little while maybe a longer while before "losing" because of sitting out. The point being if you sell doesn't mean you can't get back in as quickly as you got out.

I certainly wouldn't want to be a day trader but after weeks of two steps back and one step forward I don't mind watching for a little while.
I've been investing in the market for over 25 years and retired a couple years ago at 58, and we live comfortably. Mostly due to some very good investments, and no I don't always follow everything that I read.
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Old 12-27-2018, 08:32 PM
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I don't really understand those who say you up your 401k while the market is down. Why would anyone not max out your 401k every year no matter what? It's a 27% gain even if you break even with the tax benefit.

I get it if you can't afford to, but if you can afford it why wait until the market is down?
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Old 12-28-2018, 04:10 AM
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Originally Posted by jj1987 View Post
It's a 27% gain even if you break even with the tax benefit.
But is it really? You are just postponing the tax you will eventually pay, so wouldn't you need to subtract your future retirement tax rate (albeit probably lower, but also possibly higher, who knows) from said 27%? Or am I looking at this wrong. Serious question, because I hear this statement thrown around a lot.
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Old 12-28-2018, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by BiloxiGuy View Post
But is it really? You are just postponing the tax you will eventually pay, so wouldn't you need to subtract your future retirement tax rate (albeit probably lower, but also possibly higher, who knows) from said 27%? Or am I looking at this wrong. Serious question, because I hear this statement thrown around a lot.
You'd have to run the numbers for your situation to really answer this. My logic is that when I'm retired, I'll have paid off all my cars, homes, boat, etc, so I'll draw substantially less $$$ than I need to live now, and therefore pay a lower tax rate. I obviously don't claim to be able to predict the taxes 34 years from now when I'm 65, but I suspect I'll need less $$$ in retirement. If you feel taxes will be higher then for the amount of income you'll require to live, paying the tax up front would be better for you.
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Old 12-28-2018, 09:10 AM
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Originally Posted by jj1987 View Post
You'd have to run the numbers for your situation to really answer this. My logic is that when I'm retired, I'll have paid off all my cars, homes, boat, etc, so I'll draw substantially less $$$ than I need to live now, and therefore pay a lower tax rate. I obviously don't claim to be able to predict the taxes 34 years from now when I'm 65, but I suspect I'll need less $$$ in retirement. If you feel taxes will be higher then for the amount of income you'll require to live, paying the tax up front would be better for you.
The cost of living will be much higher in 34 years so the amount of money you will need will probably be a wash by the time you actually retire. Unless you move somewhere cheaper to live after retirement. The best way to retire and be able to live somewhat comfortable for as long as you need is having cash flow. That way you are not tapping into your principle and living off the money coming in rather than watching it go down. Consider owning some real estate in your retirement portfolio. If you can find properties that break even or make a little money now. Then in 25-30 years they will be paid for by your tenants. After they are paid for then you will have assets and cash flow.
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