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Major Hurricane Maria as of 11AM 9/18

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Major Hurricane Maria as of 11AM 9/18

Old 09-17-2017, 07:27 AM
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Default Major Hurricane Maria as of 11AM 9/18

Bears Watching.. YIKES!
It's forecasted to pass through "Heberts Box"
Full explanation here--> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hebert_Box
Looks to be a "Major" (Cat 3) as it rips through the Islands devastated by Irma.


Early Model plots...
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:29 AM
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Yeah, nobody needs this right now.
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:34 AM
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5AM NHC Disco... Oh My..


000
WTNT45 KNHC 170848
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

Maria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing
convective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.
Upper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern
portion of the circulation. The current intensity is set at 55
kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and
SAB. The environment should be conducive for continued
strengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm
ocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass. The official
intensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid
intensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the
next couple of days.


Latest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now
moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A mid-level high pressure
area to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the
next several days. This should result in a continued
west-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed. The
official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
predictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane or Tropical
Storm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these
islands today.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane,
and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 13.7N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 14.5N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 15.2N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 17.0N 64.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

96H 21/0600Z 18.4N 67.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/0600Z 19.5N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:09 AM
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And another behind her? The way is going they are going to go thru the whole alphabet this year.
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:53 AM
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NHC 11AM forecast Disco..


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
There appears to be a dry slot working into the western side of
Maria, and the low-level circulation seems to be peaking out from
under the western side of a persistent CDO feature. Dvorak
estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial
intensity is held at 55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft will be investigating Maria this afternoon.

Maria continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, and that
trajectory is expected to continue at least for the next four days
while a mid-level high is centered over the western Atlantic Ocean.
However, the track guidance has generally slowed down since the
high is not very expansive or strong, and the new NHC track
forecast follows that trend, ending up a little slower than the
previous forecast. The official forecast also continues to hedge
toward the southern side of the track guidance envelope, closest to
the ECMWF and HCCA models, which have been doing very well this
hurricane season.

Until the reconnaissance aircraft investigates Maria, the initial
intensity will be a little uncertain. Regardless, the storm is
within an environment of very low shear and over sea surface
temperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, so steady strengthening is
expected during the next few days. Due to this seemingly ideal
environment, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the
statistical-dynamical guidance and closely follows HCCA and the ICON
intensity consensus through the entire forecast period. Maria is
likely to become a hurricane later today and could become a major
hurricane in 2 to 3 days.
No major changes to the intensity
forecast were necessary compared with the previous cycle, and I'd
rather wait anyway until we have a better handle on Maria's
intensity and structure.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the
Leeward Islands as a hurricane early this week, bringing dangerous
wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical
storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward
Islands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and
westward later today and tonight.

2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and
hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as
tonight. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
Maria and follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 13.5N 56.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 14.1N 57.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.8N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.5N 60.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 16.1N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 17.3N 64.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 18.5N 67.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 20.0N 69.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Old 09-17-2017, 12:21 PM
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Show Public Advisory Selection:
Show plain - Location: ok
#903462 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:56 PM 17.Sep.2017)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 56.9W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Guadeloupe and a Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
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Old 09-17-2017, 03:46 PM
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THT MOD 14 ya'll may want to "sticky" this thread now...


that said...
With now Hurricane Maria continuing to add latitude, the kind of tracks that took storms that originated in an area within 100 nautical miles of Maria's formation safely south of the U.S. into the Gulf of Mexico are increasingly outliers in the historical climatology dataset. Given the previous ensemble data, such tracks were unlikely. Once those tracks were excluded, Maria's probability of landfall was roughly 2-in-5.
Since 1851, 38% of the hurricanes that formed in the August 15-October 15 period and passed within 100 nautical miles of Maria's 5 pm position (13.8°N 57.5°W) made U.S. landfall. 63% of such cases saw landfall on the East Coast from Florida to North Carolina. 25% made landfall in southwestern Florida.
The 12z ensembles show a reduced prospect of landfall. But the events that lead to that outcome are highly complex and, in part, dependent on Jose's fate. Therefore, I believe the climatological position of an approximately 40% of U.S. landfall still looks reasonable. Such landfall would be favored to occur on the U.S. East Coast with the Florida-North Carolina area most at risk.

NHC 5PM disco..


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALLTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 6NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL152017500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017
A burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since thelast advisory and has continued to expand in size. The Air ForceHurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximumflight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt.
The crew also noted the formation of an open eyewall. Based on thesedata and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt.
Maria is expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it will likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered for the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence inthe NHC track forecast. The updated official forecast is slightlysouth of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the update of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it isright along the previous track after 36 hours. This solution is between the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA solution.
The aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,which could make it a prime candidate for significantintensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.Rapid intensification indices are not especially high, butnonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening andpotentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours. If that occurs,some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewallreplacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as a major hurricane on days 3 through 5.
Because of Maria's small size the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to the HWRF and HCCA models.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near majorhurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islandsover the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge andrainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings willlikely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday.
2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands andPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane. Hurricanewatches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands andcould be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday. Interestsin these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow anyadvice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT
17/2100Z 13.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 15.1N 60.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 61.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 63.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 17.8N 65.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 19.0N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 21.0N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
$$Forecaster BergNNNN
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:09 PM
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Convection firing up nicely on IR
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:11 PM
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:18 PM
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Man, no one needs another one of these so soon.
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:20 PM
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Wife's girlfriend has a business in Turks, doesnt look good still early but i just got my power back and i like it,on the other i am greatful its not Francis and Gene...just keep the Keys out of it!
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Rundeep View Post
Wife's girlfriend has a business in Turks, doesnt look good still early but i just got my power back and i like it,on the other i am greatful its not Francis and Gene...just keep the Keys out of it!
Pic of wife and GF ? Hope y'all fare well.
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Old 09-17-2017, 04:27 PM
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I feel for the people in those islands. There is nothing worse than getting kicked while you are down.
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Old 09-17-2017, 05:03 PM
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I am worried about all the people on the islands. they have no cover and no food and water now. What they don't need is another hurricane.
On top of that, no one in the US needs another hurricane now either.
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Old 09-17-2017, 06:06 PM
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lets NOT yell "Fire" Yet, though Maria bears very close WATCHING...
This gentleman, is really good at advising/forecasting, WHAT a Tropical Cyclone May, or May not do...
Please refer to the proper alphabet Agencies in forecast tracks & advisories..
No bullchit..
Pulls no punches...
Careful analyses..
Gives lots of explanations on upper air patterns/steering currents, troughs etc etc...
that causes a Tropical Cyclone to do what it MAY , or may not do....
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:00 PM
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Who is leaving the shutters/wood up... Hell I just finished cleaning the front yard and started the back. Two HUGE trash piles in the front. Power came back on Wednesday Evening thank GOD!
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Old 09-17-2017, 07:06 PM
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Originally Posted by aplusmiami View Post
Who is leaving the shutters/wood up... Hell I just finished cleaning the front yard and started the back. Two HUGE trash piles in the front. Power came back on Wednesday Evening thank GOD!
I am. One less thing to do
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Old 09-17-2017, 08:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Marlin009 View Post
I am. One less thing to do
I left mine up.
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Old 09-18-2017, 05:33 AM
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Mine still up, wife says 'til Christmas!
After Francis and Jean, 3 weeks apart, not undoing anything major.
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Old 09-18-2017, 06:02 AM
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Folks don't really know what Y'all really go thru every year,with some being worse then others.
But ,I do,was down in Pensacola in 95 ,after Hugo,I reckon,and worked thru a tornado.
Man's men ,you coasties,
I don't know when y'all find time to F&F.
Hats off to ya's.Prayin it vears out into the ocean.
All the best!
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