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Investing after Harvey

Old 08-27-2017, 12:38 PM
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Default Investing after Harvey

Okay THT investment club... we had a little event this weekend down on the Gulf Coast, you might have seen something on the news about it.

I got to thinking about my very stable and disappointing market money, and thinking somethings going to go up. Considering big box home improvement stores, supplies, and services. Looking to play some quick in and quick out trades.

ServPro is privately held
Lowe's is in the middle of their 52-week average
Home Depot is in the upper quarter of their 52-week average
Lumber Liquidators is at the top of theirs, and grew almost 4 percent on Friday.

Who am I overlooking? What are the names of quality American drywall suppliers?
What would you do?

Of course, past performance is not indicative of future pricing, but there are millions of homes, cars, roads devastated, and needing replacement.
Old 08-27-2017, 12:44 PM
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Real money? Partner up with a licensed contractor to expand his/her local business already there. They will be slammed. Scale out the equipment and expertise in manpower to rebuild things like docks, gutters, screens. That's just me as an evil capitalist though.
Old 08-27-2017, 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by CruiseToFish View Post
That's just me as an evil capitalist though.
Not evil at all... and I think the same way.

Looking at USG.
Old 08-27-2017, 01:02 PM
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Other companies that fit your thesis - DOOR, MHK, brk.b. NWL

The question remains, will the increase in sales be noticeable on the bottom line, over a 2-6 quarter time frame. More important, are they worth investing in to begin with, based current valuation, among other things.

Last edited by aubv; 08-27-2017 at 01:13 PM. Reason: Wl
Old 08-27-2017, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post
Other companies that fit your thesis - DOOR, MHK, brk.b. The question remains, will the increase in sales be noticeable on the bottom line, over a 2-6 quarter time frame.
I'm thinking 1 to 2 months play tops, to grab the bump and then return to my "safe" and disappointing investments.

It just started raining again, really hard.
We have recorded 21 inches in the last 36 hours in the West side of Houston.
Old 08-27-2017, 01:18 PM
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Savage,

Keep in mind the current rebuild for Harvey and the area he hit will not be like Ike.

Now when we get round two later this week the major metro will be solid funding.

John
Old 08-27-2017, 01:20 PM
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Interesting thread...
Old 08-27-2017, 01:27 PM
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Originally Posted by savage View Post
I'm thinking 1 to 2 months play tops, to grab the bump and then return to my "safe" and disappointing investments.

It just started raining again, really hard.
We have recorded 21 inches in the last 36 hours in the West side of Houston.
More likely, Monday premarket, will see companies that stand to benefit being bid up.
Old 08-27-2017, 01:28 PM
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The projected increase in earnings will be built into the stock price immediately if it's not already. With the big names, enough investors are thinking the same to push the price up.
Old 08-27-2017, 01:41 PM
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Originally Posted by OldPete View Post
Interesting thread...
I figured that my office will probably be closed for a few days, and playing Scotrade is easier than storm recovery.
Old 08-27-2017, 01:51 PM
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Shingles. Vinyl siding. FEMA tarps. Carpet. Laminate Flooring
Old 08-27-2017, 01:54 PM
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Trying to time the market is a fool's game. Invest in index funds. A sampling:

Fund Name 1 3 5 10yr avg annual returns as of 7/31/17
Vanguard Extended Market Admiral 16.7% 8.9% 14.7% 8.4%
Vanguard Value Index Admiral 15.0% 9.8% 14.5% 6.5%
Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Index Admiral 16.1% 10.5% 14.7% 7.9%

My portfolio is up 20.6% since 1/4/16.
Old 08-27-2017, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by rickboat View Post
Trying to time the market is a fool's game. Invest in index funds.
I'm in Index, ETFs, durable goods, precious metals and certain technology stocks.
Bought IRBT at 13.

Just thinking about the fun money stretching its legs and where's the bubble?

(still raining in Houston)
Old 08-27-2017, 03:53 PM
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LSE:FGP, parent company of Greyhound as in the bus line. Going to be a bunch of messicans heading to the border for a couple weeks so get in and get out quick.
Old 08-28-2017, 05:16 AM
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You might want to investigate some oil refineries in that area. The crack spread should be widening out.
Old 08-28-2017, 05:41 AM
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What about homeowners insurance,should one sell,or wait to buy lower?
All the best!
Vinnie
p.s. Generax generators
Old 08-28-2017, 05:48 AM
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Originally Posted by vincentdivincenzo View Post
What about homeowners insurance,should one sell,or wait to buy lower?
All the best!
Vinnie
p.s. Generax generators
Homeowners insurance covers wind damage, it doesn't cover flood damage. This is primarily a flood event.(tax payers) Just listened to a report that the estimate for private insurance co's is ~$2-4 Billion. That amount appears to be accounted for in the normal quarterly cost estimates by insurance co's.


In many cases, rates rise after this kind of event, as more people seek out more insurance.

Think Pick-up trucks with high margins....
Old 08-28-2017, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by CruiseToFish View Post
Real money? Partner up with a licensed contractor to expand his/her local business already there. They will be slammed. Scale out the equipment and expertise in manpower to rebuild things like docks, gutters, screens. That's just me as an evil capitalist though.
The people who live there will really need these services. As long as you are not gouging them, increasing the availability of local contractors will only help.
Old 08-28-2017, 09:16 AM
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Do stocks such as Home Depot and Lowes actually rise much after events like this? Unless they pay massive dividends after profitable quarters, it seems like investors would see right through the short term income spike.
Old 08-28-2017, 10:36 AM
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The market with respect to heavily traded stocks like HD is quite efficient. Sure, there will be a ton of demand going forward. This is offset by the loss of sales in the short term. The market will reprice the stock to represent investor's estimate of future earnings.

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