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Help me settle an argument... are we currently on another housing bubble?

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Help me settle an argument... are we currently on another housing bubble?

Old 09-29-2016, 09:24 AM
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Default Help me settle an argument... are we currently on another housing bubble?

I'm not the sharpest tool on the box, but even I've been noticing some homes around our area selling for some crazy (or at least I think are) numbers...

So I started to look a little bit around our area (south FL, Broward County) and I cant stop thinking that we are on the middle of another real state bubble. It may not be as RADICAL as the last one but I think is heading up and who knows when it is going to stop.

I was arguing with the wife about selling a house we have, but she want to keep renting it.
It is almost paid out, and although we bought it kind of on the expensive side (2004) the market value now is over what we originally paid.

What do you guys think?
Are we on another real state bubble? Am I reading something wrong?
Old 09-29-2016, 09:27 AM
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Originally Posted by emudryj View Post
I'm not the sharpest tool on the box, but even I've been noticing some homes around our area selling for some crazy (or at least I think are) numbers...

So I started to look a little bit around our area (south FL, Broward County) and I cant stop thinking that we are on the middle of another real state bubble. It may not be as RADICAL as the last one but I think is heading up and who knows when it is going to stop.

I was arguing with the wife about selling a house we have, but she want to keep renting it.
It is almost paid out, and although we bought it kind of on the expensive side (2004) the market value now is over what we originally paid.

What do you guys think?
Are we on another real state bubble? Am I reading something wrong?
Feels like another bubble to me...
Old 09-29-2016, 09:29 AM
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I can't time the market any better than the next guy (obviously, I'd be out on my 60 footer instead of posting here) but I think it's coming. Money is cheap and even though getting money isn't as easy as it was, everybody and their brother is a real estate investor, at least that's what we're seeing around here.
Old 09-29-2016, 09:33 AM
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Absolutely it is and it appears to me its about to adjust because home sales have been off overall the last couple of months while interest rates are nearly a full point less than they were this time last year.

The housing market isn't any different than the automotive or boat markets, all have inflated prices due to cheap long term financing. Raise interest rates a couple percent and see what happens.....
Old 09-29-2016, 09:36 AM
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I'm of the other opinion. My investment that I bought in 04 is still 20% less.....We have recovered a lot, but I don't think a bubble.
Old 09-29-2016, 09:36 AM
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Maybe a pimple not a bubble Like before. The mortgage market was exponentially different on 05 and 06.
Old 09-29-2016, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Danny33486 View Post
Maybe a pimple not a bubble Like before. The mortgage market was exponentially different on 05 and 06.
Agree with this. There will be an adjustment not a total disaster.
Old 09-29-2016, 09:43 AM
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Nope.... we are in the "low inventory" component. However it is part of a potential bubble but this alone will not create a bubble.

Right now low inventory = higher prices

Builders are surprisingly slow for market conditions

We still have to get through the HELOC foreclosures. Banks are warning there "maybe" another dump of foreclosures.

markets are all over the place.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:00 AM
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I have a few foreclosures in my neighborhood, but money is cheap. I bought in 2010 (paid 36% of the original purchased price paid in 2006) thought it would be a little better, but I see crazy prices out there.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:06 AM
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I think the real estate and stock market are both a inflated.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:06 AM
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Money is cheap which is causing a bubble BUT I believe if rates were to go up then it would impact the stock market well before the housing market.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:23 AM
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My friend is in the building construction business in Miami. He tells me that the Panama Papers scandal dealt a blow to the market in South Florida. Single family inventory is tight down here.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:28 AM
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Yes. 1.5-2 years is the estimate for the bottom to fall out. Not as bad as last time, but not good, either.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:31 AM
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X2

That $350,000 mortgage gets real expensive at 5%.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:31 AM
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No.

Because money is not being loaned out nearly as easy as it was back then.

People who couldn't/'s shouldn't afford homes don't have multiple homes this time.

People aren't taking out tons of equity from their homes to buy stupid things this time.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Esuomm1 View Post
No.

Because money is not being loaned out nearly as easy as it was back then.

People who couldn't/'s shouldn't afford homes don't have multiple homes this time.

People aren't taking out tons of equity from their homes to buy stupid things this time.
I disagree. While it may be harder to get approved, we are seeing people get approved for more than they can afford. We have been having client's accountants and some lenders putting up very different figures.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by emudryj View Post
Help me settle an argument...
All you did was create a second argument.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:49 AM
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Originally Posted by TorFed View Post
I disagree. While it may be harder to get approved, we are seeing people get approved for more than they can afford. We have been having client's accountants and some lenders putting up very different figures.
In 2006 you had brokers doing fraudulent straw buyer closing a on 20 properties in 2 days . That's not happening today.
Old 09-29-2016, 10:54 AM
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I built my home out of bricks not bubbles, so I'm good.
Old 09-29-2016, 11:00 AM
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In some markets yes, others no.

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