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Old 03-30-2020, 03:09 AM
  #7781  
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And a contrarian view

https://seekingalpha.com/article/433...r-market-rally
Old 03-30-2020, 05:05 AM
  #7782  
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I'm hoping the US daily death rate dropping by half from Saturday to Sunday isn't an anomaly. That could be sorely needed good news for the country /market. Additionally there is more anecdotal evidence that suggests that chloroquine is an effective treatment. Unlike the 2008 crisis, this crisis could turn around with a treatment and a sharp reduction in the mortality rate.

Checking my crystal ball, I think we open up slightly green, dip into red, and then finish slightly green, leading into a green Tuesday as pension funds rebalance.

​​​​​​
Old 03-30-2020, 05:53 AM
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Originally Posted by acteg View Post
I'm hoping the US daily death rate dropping by half from Saturday to Sunday isn't an anomaly. That could be sorely needed good news for the country /market. Additionally there is more anecdotal evidence that suggests that chloroquine is an effective treatment. Unlike the 2008 crisis, this crisis could turn around with a treatment and a sharp reduction in the mortality rate.

Checking my crystal ball, I think we open up slightly green, dip into red, and then finish slightly green, leading into a green Tuesday as pension funds rebalance.

​​​​​​
A usable treatment is pretty much the end of the crisis. If you know your are not going to croak it puts a whole new spin on things.
Old 03-30-2020, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by GRSC View Post
The crazy squeeze in BA is going to leave some serious backside opportunity... not sustainable with the cost of oil, cancelled orders, cash flow and credit market issues. I’ll be buying puts once the trend breaks and reverses.
So far so good Plenty more downside imo

Locked in some gains.... sold 1/3 contracts with BA trading 145

Last edited by GRSC; 03-30-2020 at 07:55 AM.
Old 03-30-2020, 07:03 AM
  #7785  
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Originally Posted by acteg View Post
I'm hoping the US daily death rate dropping by half from Saturday to Sunday isn't an anomaly. That could be sorely needed good news for the country /market. Additionally there is more anecdotal evidence that suggests that chloroquine is an effective treatment. Unlike the 2008 crisis, this crisis could turn around with a treatment and a sharp reduction in the mortality rate.

Checking my crystal ball, I think we open up slightly green, dip into red, and then finish slightly green, leading into a green Tuesday as pension funds rebalance.

​​​​​​
where did you see the death rate dropping in half?
Old 03-30-2020, 07:15 AM
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Originally Posted by crazybeard View Post
where did you see the death rate dropping in half?
​​​​​https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

525 on Saturday
264 on Sunday

​​​​​Probably should have phrased that better, daily death count.
Old 03-30-2020, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted by acteg View Post
​​​​​https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

525 on Saturday
264 on Sunday

​​​​​Probably should have phrased that better, daily death count.
that's interesting. This shows a slight increase

https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
Old 03-30-2020, 09:07 AM
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Novice investor here......Did I miss the dip? Get in now or wait for another drop?
Old 03-30-2020, 09:16 AM
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Originally Posted by All Seas View Post
Novice investor here......Did I miss the dip? Get in now or wait for another drop?
Investing is a long term proposition Vs trading.

If you are investing, you should be putting some capital to work. Understanding the market might go down further, at which point you should deploy additional capital.
Old 03-30-2020, 09:42 AM
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Originally Posted by pathfinder11 View Post
puts
am an Amateur.
Puts as a short or as downside insurance?
Old 03-30-2020, 10:06 AM
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What downside? Fed will just start buying stocks in addition to the already unlimited QE.
Old 03-30-2020, 10:16 AM
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What say the brain trust about Owens Corning?


Newb millennial investor here.
Old 03-30-2020, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Madhavok View Post
What downside? Fed will just start buying stocks in addition to the already unlimited QE.
Does this bother anyone else? How is it right that the fed will just create money from nothing and then trade in the marketplace?

I'm ready to start printing my own money and trading it for "real" dollars too.
Old 03-30-2020, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by All Seas View Post
Novice investor here......Did I miss the dip? Get in now or wait for another drop?
Yes
Old 03-30-2020, 11:15 AM
  #7795  
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Waiting for 1530 for things to get interesting. Have some orders for Sept calls at bid price but don't expect then to get filled. Otherwise not doing much today market wise. Will likely average down on some of my long-term stocks that dropped today.
Old 03-30-2020, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Brad1 View Post
Yes
Buy weekly for the next month. You will be okay for the long term.
If you are trying to time the market perfectly then good luck. No one on here has a crystal ball. Not even the highest paid hedge fund managers that do this for a living.
Old 03-30-2020, 12:15 PM
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Any thoughts on companies like IVR and MFA in the long term?

As a side note i have been watching JNUG since it was mentioned here. I have no experience with this type of fund and i must say the more i look into them the more i want to stay away. They are straight up roll of the dice.
Old 03-30-2020, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Tainui View Post
Does this bother anyone else? How is it right that the fed will just create money from nothing and then trade in the marketplace?

I'm ready to start printing my own money and trading it for "real" dollars too.
I see it as no worse than people buying stocks on margins and all the other shenanigans. Another thing, the fed is guaranteeing that they buy at the lows, so at some point wouldn't they sell and make a profit?
Old 03-30-2020, 12:34 PM
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Went for 259 puts 2 weeks out.
Old 03-30-2020, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Brad1 View Post
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