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Old 03-13-2019, 04:57 PM
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My BA 365 put seen money for a few mins this afternoon but that was it, I regret not selling it.
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by BACKTOTHESEA View Post
Curious if the following calculators for the dow and S&P line up with whatever you are using. Based on these I have apparently gotten lucky but unsure of the accuracy. The first is the S&P500 and the second is for the DOW:

https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
https://dqydj.com/dow-jones-return-calculator/
I have checked the S&P results between the two and they are the same.

Are you including idle cash in your results?

Last edited by aubv; 03-13-2019 at 05:24 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 05:38 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post
I have checked the S&P results between the two and they are the same.

Are you including idle cash in your results?
Yes, but up until 2015 it was full invested and in 2015 when I rolled over a portion did sit in cash but only for a short while. Only about 2.5% is idle right now but that may change.

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Old 03-13-2019, 05:56 PM
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Interesting some are thinking about buying BA now ($375/sh) after pulling back from ~ $440/sh, under a company specific cloud.

Not 10 weeks ago, you could have bought BA ~$70/sh cheaper ($305), under a market cloud, yet no one would go near it.(well almost no one)
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Old 03-13-2019, 07:36 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post
Interesting some are thinking about buying BA now ($375/sh) after pulling back from ~ $440/sh, under a company specific cloud.

Not 10 weeks ago, you could have bought BA ~$70/sh cheaper ($305), under a market cloud, yet no one would go near it.(well almost no one)
should I have waited for it to drop more before buying my first little bit?

meanwhile, MTAFF, which I had been buying, but not nearly enough, apparently, is about to break $1 . I’m avg’d in at .61 since last big block I bought.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Pipo6007 View Post
So basically if you were to invest just in the Index's you would have had a similar outcome? I have heard that before and I believe your numbers there show that to be true.
No question, for many people, buying a fund is absolutely the right way to invest.

That said, over the time frame indicated, the 30 stocks in the DJIA have outperformed the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 by 20%. I wouldn't call those returns similar.


Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post


should I have waited for it to drop more before buying my first little bit?

meanwhile, MTAFF, which I had been buying, but not nearly enough, apparently, is about to break $1 . I’m avg’d in at .61 since last big block I bought.
I have no idea if it will drop more.

When I find a company I am interested in, I will begin with a small starter position. Typically, I don't care what the price or P/E is. I pay a lot more attention to stocks I own and by default see articles and news releases, when checking quotes. I may buy stock in the same company, multiple times and that might be over many years. Many of those purchases happen at times exactly like what happen in December or now with BA. (Not a recommendation)

Last edited by aubv; 03-13-2019 at 08:15 PM.
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Old 03-13-2019, 08:10 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post


No question, for many people, buying a fund is absolutely the right way to invest.

That said, over the time frame indicated, the 30 stocks in the DJIA have outperformed the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 by 20%. I wouldn't call those returns similar.




I have no idea if it will drop more.

When I find a company I am interested in, I will begin with a small starter position. Typically, I don't care what the price or P/E is. I pay a lot more attention to stocks I own and by default see articles and news releases, when checking quotes. I may buy stock in the same company, multiple times and that might be over many years. Many of those purchases happen at times exactly like what happen in December or now with BA.
i was just pickin’

my BA purchase was very minimal, but was my entry point. I did buy in my Roth instead of dividend (reg brokerage) account. I plan to add a few shares I doc account, too, but hoping to get a good bit cheaper before I make that move.
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Old 03-13-2019, 09:21 PM
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Originally Posted by joe.giuliano View Post
Got lucky with OAK today.
holding or selling?
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Old 03-14-2019, 04:35 AM
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Originally Posted by toolate390 View Post
holding or selling?
They were partially bought (60+%) at a higher price. I also own the purchaser so I sold the OAK shares.
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Old 03-14-2019, 07:02 AM
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Just purchased CVGW....just a pilot buy. I will look to add.
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Old 03-14-2019, 07:39 AM
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Just sold the March 29 $49 BMY Put. Picked up $100 in premium or 2.1% for just two weeks time.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post


No question, for many people, buying a fund is absolutely the right way to invest.

That said, over the time frame indicated, the 30 stocks in the DJIA have outperformed the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 by 20%. I wouldn't call those returns similar.
So buy a DIA ETF over SPY ETF??
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
So buy a DIA ETF over SPY ETF??
I think you're asking me to predict the future.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
So buy a DIA ETF over SPY ETF??
Google quality factor ETFs. They have less holdings than the s&p and contain companies that meet certain criteria like balance sheet, earnings growth, low debt levels.

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Old 03-14-2019, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
So buy a DIA ETF over SPY ETF??
Following up on my useless previous response(like that is new ) I think there is something to be said about owning 30 stocks like those found on the DJIA versus a much larger basket of stocks. I think you can be over diversified. I look at foreign markets(BRIC's) as fairly high risk. I acknowledge they may outperform but I just don't see the need to chase the return. The more companies you own, the greater the chances you own junk.

While I have no empirical evidence, never looked for any, it would not surprise me that a smaller basket of good companies, outperforms a much larger basket of companies that may include mediocre companies. The smaller basket may have more volatility but that doesn't bother me.

Considering the role dividends play in long term returns, certainly favors a group of stocks like those found on the DJIA.








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Last edited by aubv; 03-14-2019 at 06:19 PM.
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Old 03-15-2019, 12:17 PM
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For those looking for current dividend income, IEP recently raised the dividend by 10% to $8/sh and is sporting a yield of ~11%.

I know NOTHING about the company....
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Old 03-15-2019, 02:26 PM
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YETI had another killer week.
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Old 03-17-2019, 05:36 AM
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Default Market timing

This chart shows just how dangerous it can be to try to time the market

  • On average, investors who remained fully invested in their assets, rather than trying to time the market, received an average annualized return of 7.61 percent, research by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute shows.
  • As investors missed more of the market's best days they, on average, received a lower return on their investments.
  • The data show that investors who were remained fully invested in their assets for the long term received a much larger return on the long run.

Nadine El-Bawab
Published 1:30 PM ET Fri, 15 March 2019CNBC.comName:  chart.1552588501420.png
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Investors who attempted to try to time the market's lows and highs have on the long run received a worse return on their investment than those who simply remained invested.

On average, investors who bought and hold, rather than tried to time the market, received an average annualized return of 7.61 percent since 1989, research by the Wells Fargo Investment Institute shows.

The chart also shows that missing the single best days can put a dent in investors' long term returns.

As investors missed more of the asset's "best days" they, on average, received a lower return on their investments.

The data show that investors who missed the 10 best days of performance received an average return of 5.16 percent, while investors that missed the 40 best days only received an average return of 0.47 percent.

Those who missed the asset's 50 best days received a return of -0.47 percent.

"Investors who attempt to time the market — or react to a single market event or an overstated headline — risk getting caught on the wrong side of a market move," wrote Tracie McMillion, CFA, Head of Global Asset Allocation Strategy.

The data, therefore, shows that investors who were remained fully invested in their assets for the long term, received a much larger return on the long run.
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Old 03-17-2019, 08:10 AM
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Not for me but......


Is now the time to revisit bonds in your portfolio?

It may be, given that the Federal Reserve is advocating a "patient" approach to interest rates and a survey by the National Association for Business Economics has found that about 50 percent of U.S. business economists believe the country will be in a recession by the end of 2020.

Yes, said certified financial planner Douglas Kobak, CEO of Main Line Group Wealth Management. Other factors working against rising rates, he said, are slowing global economic expansion, increasing U.S. stock market volatility and uncertainty in Washington in areas such as a U.S./China agreement, immigration, the national debt, lack of bipartisan support, etc.

The yield from a short-term bond portfolio currently can beat the rate of inflation, he said.



"The right portfolio can add more safety, since individual bonds have a stated maturity date when compared to a mutual fund," Kobak said. "Investment-grade and government bonds also have a low correlation to the stock markets, which can lower the volatility within a portfolio.

"Bond funds and most fixed-income ETFs do not have set maturity dates," he added. "Therefore, in a rising interest-rate environment, there is no set date in the future when an investor will get his principal back."

Erika Safran, CFP, founder of Safran Wealth Advisors, said that "it's always time for bonds."

She added: "You just have to know why you are buying them. I find that a lot of the bond avoiders are alternative investments fans. I don't see the value."

Safran addde that there should be no fear of the bond market "unless, of course, you're investing on the long end or on low credit."."There should be no fear if you buy bonds for diversification and income," she said. "Naturally, there is undue risk if you invest for capital appreciation."


Now is a great time to consider incorporating conventional bonds into portfolios, said Brandon W. Garrett, CFP, president of Snow Garrett Wealth Management.

"As the yield curve has flattened over the last year, we have been given a gift in the form of attractive short-term rates," he said.

"Low rates over the past decade have forced more conservative investors into riskier assets," Garrett added. "With higher short-term rates, conservative investors can once again focus on high-quality, shorter-duration bonds as a more meaningful piece of their portfolio without sacrificing much return.

"Conservative clients should now feel comfortable knowing that the 'safe' portion of their portfolio is earning 2 [percent] to 3 percent rather than zero [percent], which should result in less risk drift and ultimately a better investor experience."

"Our clients appreciate the relative certainty and the predictability of the income flows, and the use of bond ladders lessens the worry about calls and the daily volatility of the bond market."-James N. Reardon, chief investment officer of ProActive Capital Management
Furthermore, Garrett said, if rates move, shorter-duration bonds will be less affected than their longer-duration counterparts.

For his part, James N. Reardon, CFP and chief investment officer of ProActive Capital Management, especially likes using bond ladders of higher-grade U.S. corporates, employing real non-callable bonds when practical. He also likes the more passive nature of bond portfolios.

"Our clients appreciate the relative certainty and the predictability of the income flows and the use of bond ladders lessens the worry about calls and the daily volatility of the bond market," he said. "It's great at the end of the year when the client can see some principal returned and the interest distributed or reinvested for their needs."

This is definitely a good time for municipal bonds, said Ian M. Weinberg, CFP, CEO of Family Wealth & Pension Management, citing loss of certain income-tax deductions, a benign interest rate policy by the Fed and very credit-worthy issuers nationwide. Compared to Treasurys, the net yields of munis are much higher because they are not subject to federal, state and local tax, he said, making them a good value at this time when they're giving investors 80 percent or more of Treasury yields.



In contrast, James Shagawat, CFP, president of Windfall Wealth Advisors, said this is not a good time to look at munis. Factors that make them disadvantageous include interest rates at 50-year lows; bond insurance disappearing (6 percent of new issuance has insurance, down from 57 percent in 2005, according to an Alliance Bernstein report); reduced liquidity, especially for small position sizes; and limited available supply.

"Since the financial crisis, municipal bonds have dramatically been changed," he said. "The strategy that worked well has stopped working.

"What was buy-and-hold the bonds until maturity or until they are called can be a costly mistake."

Shagawat said some solutions including analyzing the bonds, selling them before maturity, doing credit research, or using bond mutual funds.

— By Deborah Nason, special to CNBC.com

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Old 03-17-2019, 12:22 PM
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Question for Joe and AUBV- What is the optimum number of different stocks to have in your portfolio. I'm thinking 20 ish but how many is too many?
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