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Old 07-20-2015, 06:12 AM
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Default Gold!!

Is anybody buying gold on this price drop? Maybe going to wait for it to drop further?

I'm not ready to buy yet.
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Old 07-20-2015, 06:16 AM
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I saw that this am also. So where do you purchase your gold from? Any reputable establishments?
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Old 07-20-2015, 06:20 AM
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I buy online...Apmex or Bullion Direct

Gold market is funny...in that I believe it is manipulated. Very large sell orders going through in thin markets...and nothing is investigated.
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Old 07-20-2015, 06:21 AM
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Commentary on today's drop...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-notional-dump
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Old 07-20-2015, 12:58 PM
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There is so much excess capacity to produce after the high prices spurred the world mining industry into a 4 year growth spurt for primary gold and bi product copper/gold mines, combined with the decreased desire for this commodity in India, the middle east, and china that I still hold onto my 3 year old prediction that gold is headed for $1000 an oz, and that it will stay that way until there is a huge correction in stocks.

Miners have to up gold production with low prices, or shutter operations, and the shutdown cost is a huge environmental cost to maintain, so there will probably be a shaking out of the lower less profitable producers. When you see news of that happening for 2 years or more, then it might be time to look at gold again. People talk about chart shapes, but its really just supply and demand, and demand has been waning since early 2011.
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Old 07-20-2015, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Bullshipper View Post
There is so much excess capacity to produce after the high prices spurred the world mining industry into a 4 year growth spurt for primary gold and bi product copper/gold mines, combined with the decreased desire for this commodity in India, the middle east, and china that I still hold onto my 3 year old prediction that gold is headed for $1000 an oz, and that it will stay that way until there is a huge correction in stocks.

Miners have to up gold production with low prices, or shutter operations, and the shutdown cost is a huge environmental cost to maintain, so there will probably be a shaking out of the lower less profitable producers. When you see news of that happening for 2 years or more, then it might be time to look at gold again. People talk about chart shapes, but its really just supply and demand, and demand has been waning since early 2011.
Not sure what you have been reading, but demand for physical metal is up all over the world...

The paper games are what is holding the price down. And, yes, the miners are suffering...if prices go much lower, production of metals will cease.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...al-update-2009
China Increases Gold Holdings By 57% "In One Month" In First Official Update Since 2009

Well, the long awaited moment has finally arrived and this morning, after a 6 year delay when, China finally admitted that it had been misrepresenting its gold holdings for a very long time, when it announced that its gold holdings had increased from 38.89 million to 53.31 million troy ounces, a 57% increase "in one month."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...s-import-surge
Gold prices jumped overnight on initial rumors and again in the last hour as Indian officials note that March Gold imports surged to 125 tons (more than double last March's 60 tons). As Reuters reports, Gold imports in the fiscal year 2014/15 ended March 31 jumped to 900 tonnes, up 36% from a year ago.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-pays-interest
Despite Bernanke's previous protestations that "gold is not money... it is tradition," it appears the Indian government - having come to the rapid realization that any attempts to thwart the use of gold as a monetary equivalent merely forced the people to hoard the precious metal in ever larger amounts and ever more shadow, un-regulated, ways - now has a very different opinion.

In an effort to mobilise 20,000 tonnes of unproductive gold owned by Indian households into cash, Reuters reports that - after unveiling the gold monetisation scheme on Feb 28th, India's FinMin Arun Jaitley released bank guidelines overnight on interest rates, reserve and liquidity ratios. The scheme "allows gold to become a dynamic, fungible asset in the hands of gold savers."
and on silver
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...nges-2015-lows
BullionVault, which operates the largest online physical gold trading platform, reported a jump in sales during the first half of this year, a sign of a broader increase.

Earlier today, we learned that the latest place that hit by the precious metal scramble was the US itself, when we learned that the US mint had suspended Silver Eagle sales as a result of a spike in demand, with our source advising that "all bullion distributors (like A-Mark, Dillon Gage, CNT, etc) were already raising premiums."

And while the US Mint rarely issues press releases to confirm such adverse matters, moments ago this was confirmed by Bloomberg:
•U.S. MINT SAYS 2015 AMERICAN EAGLE SILVER COINS SOLD OUT

When will the Mint restock and resume sales?
•U.S. MINT PLANS TO RESUME SILVER COIN SALES IN TWO WEEKS

Curious things getting more curious...er
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...just-soar-1260

So to summarize: as we reported first (and we would be delighted if other so called financial experts dedicated as much effort to digging through the primary data as they have to desperately try to disprove our article), JPM has indeed cornered the OTC commodity market, with its $4 trillion in "Other" commodity derivatives which amount to 96% of total. We don't expect anyone to ask Jamie Dimon about this on the quarterly earnings call because this is one of those things one doesn't want an answer to if one wishes to be invited to the next conference call.

However, another big question remains: just what is Citigroup - not, not JPMorgan - with the Precious Metals category.

Here is the chart showing Citigroup's Precious Metals (mostly silver now that gold is lumped in with FX), exposure over the past 4 years. Of note: the 1260% increase in Precious Metals derivative holdings in the past quarter, from just $3.9 billion to $53 billion!



Soaring from just 17.4% to over 70%, there is just one word for what Citigroup has done to what the Precious Metals ex Gold (i.e., almost exclusively silver) derivatives market.

Cornering.

So, the question then is: just what is Citigroup doing with its soaring Precious Metals (excluding gold) exposure, and why is such a dramatic place taking place at precisely the time when not only JPM is cornering the entire "Other" Commodity derivatives market in the form of a whopping $4 trillion in derivatives notional, but in the quarter after none other than Citigroup itself was responsible for drafting the swaps push-out language in the Omnibus bill.

Screen Shot 2014-12-05 at 3.32.12 PM

And also: how is it legal that JPM is solely accountable for 96% of all commodity derivatives while Citigroup is singlehandedly responsible for over 70% of all "precious metals" derivatives? Surely even by the most lax standards this is illegal, but what makes the farce even greater is that all of this taking place out of FDIC-insured entities!

The final question, which we are absolutely certain will remain unanswered, is whether any of these dramatic surges have anything to do with the recent move in precious metals prices, or rather the complete lack thereof, even as Europe is on the verge of its first member officially exiting the Eurozone, and China's stock market is suffering its worst market crash since 2008. Oh, and we almost forgot: with both JPM and Citi now well over 50% of the derivatives market in two critical categories, who is the counterparty!?
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Old 07-20-2015, 01:33 PM
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You can believe what you want, lots of "news" on the internet, but as a miner for 20 and a supplier for 15 more, I lived it. Gold is still going down imo, so if your holding, good luck.
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Old 07-20-2015, 01:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Bullshipper View Post
You can believe what you want, lots of "news" on the internet, but as a miner for 20 and a supplier for 15 more, I lived it. Gold is still going down imo, so if your holding, good luck.
Fair enough...and I think the price will go down more before it comes back up above and beyond $2k/ozt.

Did you even read some of the links I posted? Real metal is heading from West to East...while the West plays with paper.

How are you judging demand in the East? You know? Internet?
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Old 07-20-2015, 03:41 PM
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Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
Fair enough...and I think the price will go down more before it comes back up above and beyond $2k/ozt.

Did you even read some of the links I posted? Real metal is heading from West to East...while the West plays with paper.

How are you judging demand in the East? You know? Internet?
What does this do to your thesis?

https://www.google.com/search?q=chin...XFxqw6nOsHM%3A
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Old 07-20-2015, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post
Are you referring to the articles about Chinese gold demand such as this from that Google link? We'll never really know what is happening, but one must understand that the East thinks of gold in a much different way than the West...and the East is trying their hardest to become a viable economy/currency to compete on the world stage. How they get there is yet to be determined, but I think gold will play a huge role in the move.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...se-gold-demand
There is a story being told to the masses about Chinese gold demand that is grossly incorrect. The huge discrepancy between numbers from the World Gold Council (WGC) and actual gold demand is so wide yet cunningly hidden I must conclude there is essential information about physical gold demand deliberately kept privy.

Let’s go back to April 2013; the price of gold made a nosedive, which spawned an unprecedented physical buying spree across the globe, most notably in China. Withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), that equal Chinese wholesale demand, closed at 2,197 metric tonnes December 31, 2013, up 93 % y/y.

However, the WGC (the global authority on gold) initially stated Chinese consumer gold demand had reached 1,066 tonnes in 2013, an astonishing 1,131 tonnes less than wholesale demand. In the China Gold Association (CGA) Gold Yearbook 2013 it was disclosed China had net imported 1,524 tonnes and domestically mined 428 tonnes. Without counting scrap supply this adds up to 1,952 tonnes; adding scrap total supply has been well over 2,000 tonnes. It’s impossible consumer demand was only 1,066 tonnes.

Finally the WGC admitted their initial estimate of 1,066 tonnes of Chinese gold demand was grossly understated. By email they wrote me on February 12, 2015:


That’s an increase of 23 % by the largest physical buyer on the planet. Although still far from actual demand, 23 % is quite a revision. Was there an official press release from the WGC to inform the world on this revision? No (I’ve asked the WGC, but I got no reply). Did the mainstream media properly cover the 23 % revision? Not that I’m aware of.

Actual Chinese gold demand 2013 has been knavishly hidden from the masses (99 % of the financial industry copies WGC numbers).

In 2014 the WGC again grossly understated Chinese gold demand. SGE withdrawals accounted for 2,102 tonnes, though the WGC stated Chinese consumer demand was only 814 tonnes. Again, a gap of more than 1,100 tonnes. All arguments the WGC has brought up to explain the surplus in the Chinese gold market can only make up about 15 % of the gap (gold-for-gold supply and stock movement change).

For 2014 grossly understating Chinese gold demand wasn’t enough for the Council to distract the world’s eye from China’s gold hunger; more was needed. By a few tonnes the WGC put India’s consumer gold demand ahead of China. In their Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2014 Indian demand is disclosed at 843 tonnes, transcending Chinese demand (814 tonnes) by 29 tonnes, just enough. Most media simply copied these numbers and are stating India is now the world’s largest gold consumer – no critical thoughts added. In my opinion this is the biggest fallacy in finance of our time.
Remember, the SGE is a physical exchange with a bit more validity than today's COMEX (IMO)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-surges-record

Shanghai Gold Exchange volume climbed to a record today as prices declined incentivizing value driven Chinese buyers as Chinese stocks crashed 7.4%.

Volumes for bullion (99.99% purity) traded on SGE rise to a record 48.325m grams from 36.356m a day earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This exceeds the previous record of 45.717m on March 26.

In late morning European trading, gold is down 0.04 percent at $1,173.95 an ounce. Silver is off 0.47 percent at $15.81 an ounce and platinum is also down 0.36 percent at $1,077.49 an ounce.

Or...if you prefer a bit more mainstream stuff...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ot-be-finished

With China finally coming clean that it’s been the second-biggest buyer of gold over the past six years, analysts and traders say the purchases will continue.
In the first update since 2009, the People’s Bank of China said on Friday that it owns about 1,658 metric tons, implying purchases of 100 tons a year. The stockpile may eventually reach more than 5,000 tons, according to Robin Bhar, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London.
http://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/chi...-record-ahead/

We keep seeing reports in the mainstream media suggesting that Chinese gold demand is slipping away, but continuing strong gold withdrawal figures from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) seem to contradict these reports. While, as we have reported before, there are many doubts expressed as to whether SGE withdrawals are actually equivalent to Chinese consumer demand, there is no doubt that they do represent the underlying consumption situation.
http://www.forbes.com/fdc/welcome_mjx.shtml

Can’t Keep Gold Down
Most loyal readers of my Frank Talk blog know that China, along with India, leads the world in gold demand. This Chinese New Year is no exception. Official “Year of the Ram” gold coins sold out days ago, and since the beginning of January, withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange have grown to over 315 tonnes, exceeding the 300 tonnes of newly-mined gold around the globe during the same period.

China, in other words, is consuming more gold than the world is producing.
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Old 07-20-2015, 04:13 PM
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Just came across this posted not long ago today...Take if for what it's worth...just food for thought. Nothing more, nothing less...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...s-missing-gold

Recall what little-noticed quote Reuters cited on July 3, just as Chinese stocks were plummeting 7% on a daily basis, with index futures halted limit down, and half of Chinese stocks halted from trading:

The Shanghai Composite Index plummeted more than 7 percent at one point in early trade. It ended the morning session down 3.3 percent at 3.785.6 points, heading for a weekly loss of nearly 10 percent. "This is a stock disaster. If it's not, what is it?" said Fu Xuejun, strategist at Huarong Securities Co.

"The government must rescue the market, not with empty words, but with real silver and gold," he said, saying a full-blown market crash would endanger the banking system, hit consumption and trigger social instability.
Recall what China SAFE's official explanation was for the unexpected revelation:

Gold as a special asset, with multiple attributes financial and commodities, together with other assets to help regulate and optimize the overall risk-return characteristics of international reserves portfolio. From the perspective of long-term and strategic perspective, if necessary, dynamically adjusted international reserves portfolio allocation, safety, liquidity and increasing the value of international reserve assets.
Then another potential explanation was offered by Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who late today quoted Sharps Pixley's analyst Ross Norman as saying that "the level of gold reserves announced by China massively understates the country’s true holdings. “We think they have at least twice as much, maybe even 4,000 tonnes,” he said. "Sharps Pixley said a “seismic change” is under way in the bullion markets as economic power shifts to the East, boosting gold prices over time."
-----
A division of the People’s Liberation Army mines gold and transfers the metal to the Chinese finance ministry, acting outside normal commercial channels. The government also buys gold directly from Chinese producers. This is an internal transaction and is therefore not necessarily recorded in China’s external reserves.
------
Then AEP goes on to quote David Marsh, from the monetary forum OMFIF, who said "China would risk unsettling the world gold market if it revealed bullion reserves of 2,000 or 3,000 tonnes. This might be interpreted as an unfriendly move against the dollar at a "delicate time."
One answer is presented by Louis Cammarasno in the following Smaulgld blog post:

"The Case Of China's Missing Gold"

The People’s Bank of China Updates Its Gold Reserve Holdings
Chinese Gold reserves jump 604 tons from 1,054 tons last reported in 2009 to 1,658 tons.
Many gold observers ask – ‘Is that it’?
Since 2009 China has mined over 2,000 tons of gold and imported over 3,300 tons of gold through Hong Kong*.
Where did it all go?
Chinese Mining Reserves

There’s plenty more where that came from!

On June 25, 2015, Zhang Bignan Chairman and Secretary General of the China Gold Association presented this slide at London Bullion Market forum indicating that China’s gold mining reserves were approximately 9,800 tons.
Chinese Gold Trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange

In addition to massive gold production and imports, China also operates the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) a major physical gold trading hub.Withdrawals of physical gold on the SGE to date in 2015 are well over 1,200 tons and over 9,000 tons since January 2009.
Who’s Got the Chinese Gold?

If Chinese gold mining production and imports through Hong Kong and Shanghai don’t end up at the PBOC, where is it?

The Chinese People

A good portion of Chinese gold is with its citizens. The famed gold crazed “Da Ma” or Chinese housewives who buy any dip in gold prices supposedly hold a good portion of the nation’s gold. Some estimate that Chinese citizens hold thousands of tons of gold. One estimate claims Chinese citizens hold 6,000 tons of gold.

Chinese State Owned Banks

Perhaps another chunk of the Chinese nation’s gold is held in other state owned banks, not necessarily with the PBOC, such as the Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Development Bank and Industrial and Commerical Bank of China all located, like the PBOC, in Beijing, China.

Chinese Sovereign Wealth Fund

The China Investment Corporation (CIC), also located in Bejiing, is a sovereign wealth fund responsible for managing part of the People’s Republic of China’s foreign exchange reserves. The CIC has $746.7 billion in assets under management and reports to the State Council of the People’s Republic of China.

Off Balance Sheet Accounting?

The CIC lists $225.321 billion in finacial assets and about $3.130 billion of “other assets” on its balance sheet. It’s possible that some of these “assets” are in the form of gold.

The CIC has three subsidiaries: CIC International (responsible for internatonal equity and bond investments), CIC Capital (direct investments) and Central Huijin (equity investments in Chinese state owned financial institutions and state owned enterprises).

Central Huijin owns significant equity stakes in each of: Agricultural Bank of China (40.28%), Bank of China (65.52%), China Construction Bank(57.26%), China Development Bank (47.63%) and Industrial and Commerical Bank of China (35.12%).

For a gold backed Chinese Remnimbi 1,658 tons of gold reserves are insufficient, but for admission to the SDR are perfectly adequate.

If indeed China holds gold with the CIC and/or with any of the Chinese state owned banks, the PBOC could roll up that gold on to its own balance sheet in order to show more gold reserves quickly and easily in one month with a single entry.
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Old 07-20-2015, 07:47 PM
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Today's news is not about today.

Who knew(had prior knowledge) China's announced reserves would disappoint the market?

What is China's stated policy toward private(Chinese citizens) ownership of gold?

What other major eastern bloc nation is buying gold?
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Old 07-21-2015, 05:15 AM
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http://online.barrons.com/articles/g...3053#printMode
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Old 07-21-2015, 05:28 AM
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Originally Posted by joe.giuliano View Post
I think it is going to get into triple digits before heading back up...I hope. I have a few miners (McEwen Mining being my largest position in the sector) that I will hold for a while and keep adding to, but I am mainly buying physical metal. I do not plan on selling for 5-10 more years...or longer, if I don't need to.
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Old 07-21-2015, 06:51 AM
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Gold goes up in times of economic insecurity. Who's market has just had a severe down turn? What government has just made shorting stocks illegal. In fact pulling many companies of the market from trading. So they brought the monkey hammer out on gold. If any of this bothers you I highly recommend you stay away from PMs.
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Old 07-21-2015, 07:02 AM
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I bought a pile of silver @ 42 dollars an ounce a while back, the Internet said it would go to $100.....
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Old 07-21-2015, 08:46 AM
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Originally Posted by creditcardguy View Post
I bought a pile of silver @ 42 dollars an ounce a while back, the Internet said it would go to $100.....
I bought a pile at $8-10...then $15...then $20...then $30...then stopped and rode it up to about $50 then back down. Started in gold at about $600....

Still doing pretty well with physical....miners, not so much
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Old 07-21-2015, 08:54 AM
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Worst investment you could make.
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Old 07-21-2015, 08:57 AM
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.


Looks like a nice 45% haircut from the top.

Bubbles suck.

Where does it stop?


.
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Old 07-21-2015, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by shadco View Post
.


Looks like a nice 45% haircut from the top.

Bubbles suck.

Where does it stop?


.

Bubble? If you look at the fundamentals, it is nowhere near a bubble. How many people, % wise, were actually investing in it when it hit $1900+? That ain't a bubble.

Now, tell me about equities...and bonds...
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