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Housing Recovery . . . or, here we go again?

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Housing Recovery . . . or, here we go again?

Old 07-08-2013, 02:29 PM
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Default Housing Recovery . . . or, here we go again?

So, it looks like people are losing their f*&king minds again with housing. I'm seeing houses not lasting more than a couple of days on the (South Florida) market, people getting into bidding wars, etc, etc. What's worse, people are panicking because interest rates are in the 4% range. I'm reading that it's a national trend.

What say you THT? Is this the housing recovery or the making of another bubble?
Old 07-08-2013, 02:38 PM
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We have a waterfront weekend home/rental on the gulf that we can't even enjoy ourselves now because it's booked solid by people from all over needing a place to stay while shopping for waterfront real estate. Kinda crazy right now.
Old 07-08-2013, 02:39 PM
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RECOVERY! Money is still cheap, and people were waiting for the bottom. It's here, and going up with waterfront properties

I think it went from one extreme to the other, and it'll balance out in the middle for a while. We won't see the sky high prices of the past, but prices will go up some more.
IMO, of course.
Old 07-08-2013, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Jus Teasin View Post
people were waiting for the bottom. It's here....
The bottom in SFLA was a few years ago
Old 07-08-2013, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by triplenet View Post
The bottom in SFLA was a few years ago
I agree with you, which is exacly why I pose the question. There has been a slow and steady increase in prices for a couple of years. Now, it seems the frenzy has started again. And, from what I've seen from a few recent first time buyers, lending standards haven't gotten all that better. Banks will still gladly lend you more than you can afford.
Old 07-08-2013, 03:12 PM
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Starting to see real estate move up here in NY. Any house for sale in my neighborhood was scooped up. They don't last more than a month or two now.
Old 07-08-2013, 03:20 PM
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When I was a young man and bought my first house at 11% (brother bought one at 17%), my father told us he felt sorry that we would never see rates like 4.5% that he had after WWII when he bought his first home. Now 30 years later, rates are below that and people are in a panic because they are afraid rates might go to 5%.
In reality, the rates have been kept low by the FED and real market condition are already taking effect, which will mean higher rates. I see nothing wrong with that, the less government control the better. With higher interest rates, come better return for financial products such as CD's, Money Markets, etc. Those items have been out of favor for the past ten years. Park money there and you lose to inflation. Now maybe people can begin using them to secure their cash instead of Gold.
Old 07-08-2013, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Bastian View Post
Sold a house last month in central Florida. On the market for 28 days. Full asking price.
How did you arrive at your asking price? Did you come in under the comps? Did you 2nd guess yourself and think you should have asked more?

I've read of strategy to list about 10% low and due to low inventory, you can find yourself in a bidding war between 3-4 buyers.
Old 07-08-2013, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by DandH View Post
With higher interest rates, come better return for financial products such as CD's, Money Markets, etc. Those items have been out of favor for the past ten years. Park money there and you lose to inflation. .
I was getting almost 8% on some CD's in 2007 ..... I believe CD's really tanked as the fed rate went down to almost zero ...

But yes, CD rates have been going south for some time...





.
Old 07-08-2013, 03:35 PM
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Here in NY its all about letting people hang themselves.

75% of the people here are complaining that the banks won't give them any money. The other 25% can spend like drunken sailors.

I completed my house 1 year ago. After I was all finished I went to the bank and got a Home Equity..I asked for 75K LOC, they gave me 205K LOC..

If the banks will loan too much money to people that can't pay, same ol' same ol'... That's overly simplistic, but I'm a simpleton.
Old 07-08-2013, 04:10 PM
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I think for the most part the spike in home sales have been from investors and people freaking the interest rates are going up and they think they will miss out.

From what I have been reading the hedge funds are stopping buying up and houses and have started to sell some, which tells me I think housing will hit another rough patch.

We have had low rates, the fed buying 85 billion of mortgages a month, and in some cases no where else to put cash. They just created a shorter bubble this time.
Old 07-08-2013, 04:10 PM
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Originally Posted by SN00KERED View Post
I agree with you, which is exacly why I pose the question. There has been a slow and steady increase in prices for a couple of years. Now, it seems the frenzy has started again. And, from what I've seen from a few recent first time buyers, lending standards haven't gotten all that better. Banks will still gladly lend you more than you can afford.
Basically the mortgage companies have adapted to the new laws and are learning ways around them, again. I don't blame the banks, I blame the idiots biting off more than they can chew, but with no money to lend no buyers (for the most part).

We are seeing the same ridiculous price increases. Several houses I sold last year in desirable areas would list today for 30% more. Combine that with the fact the big REITs are back in town (and yours too if you're paying attention) buying stuff up left and right. That's cash, not contingent on appraisal generally.

We are heading for a bubble. A mini bubble though, only in the "good areas". The serious buyers are going crazy because there just isn't enough quality inventory.
Old 07-08-2013, 09:13 PM
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Big banks are buying up their own forclosures at auction and paying inflated prices. Driving up the market?

On a side note, I know someone who bought his own home back from the bank after they foreclosed and came out about $200k ahead.
Old 07-08-2013, 11:49 PM
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All I want is my house's value to go up enough so I can refinance and get my intrest rate down.

I wish I had the $$$ to buy a FL waterfront house for cheap.
Old 07-09-2013, 05:59 AM
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In the past 2 months the market has started to go insane, people are losing their minds.
Old 07-09-2013, 06:06 AM
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Here in NJ a friend just made an offer on a house at $270k and it was bid up to $310, crazy. I think there is a rush to get a mortgage before they go up any more.
Old 07-09-2013, 06:12 AM
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We still haven't designed a new subdivision in the Fayetteville area in over 5 years, and I don't see anything changing there anytime soon. I think the Raleigh area is doing better, but it still seems like most of the new construction is apartment housing. I'm not convinced yet that anything is any better.
Old 07-09-2013, 06:17 AM
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Originally Posted by bellsisland View Post
I think for the most part the spike in home sales have been from investors and people freaking the interest rates are going up and they think they will miss out.

From what I have been reading the hedge funds are stopping buying up and houses and have started to sell some, which tells me I think housing will hit another rough patch.

We have had low rates, the fed buying 85 billion of mortgages a month, and in some cases no where else to put cash. They just created a shorter bubble this time.
My girlfriend works on the real estate side of Blackstone Investments, they are still buying like crazy and have planned to buy at this rate for 2 more years.
Old 07-09-2013, 08:17 AM
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Guess it's been about 7 years since their last bankruptcy?????????
Old 07-09-2013, 08:24 AM
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we just had an appraisal donw on our place to refi. Value went up according to appraisal by nearly 20K over the last 14 months somehow. Had real estate valuation done 15 months ago. We just wanted to do a refi on the balance of the mortgage, had to fight bank because they wanted to do balance plus 50K in cash out. Things are getting silly again.

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