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WTH is going on w/ silver pricing?

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WTH is going on w/ silver pricing?

Old 07-01-2013, 03:24 PM
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Default WTH is going on w/ silver pricing?

A commodities broker gave me a "secret tip" that silver was going to go up X5 by the end of the year. OMG it has done just the opposite. EVERYTHING I read said silver was going to go up and up, I didn't read anything that said it was going to drop like it has. There was supposed to be massive shortages of silver, especially for industry but apparently there was no shortage.

I bought it at $29.84/share, again @ $24.43/share @ again @ $22.94/share and today it's down to $18.93. I can't buy any more without selling some oil stocks. I am afraid to see how much I have lost but it's way into the 5 figure range.

Any swamy's out there care to predict what is going to happen with silver pricing? Would any of you recommend I sell some oil stocks (Chevron, Marathon, Phillips 66, Exxon) to lower my average, or just let it ride and hope it goes back up?

No need for smarta$$ed comments, it was my decision and I lost a lot of money. I sure didn't want this to happen so no need to rub my nose in it. I know a lot of you are way more educated than me on the stock market so I'm looking for some help here. This is money out of our personal account not like it's in a 401K or anything like that.

Russ
Old 07-01-2013, 03:29 PM
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I am interested as well. What is the predicted bottom of silver? Where do you buy as we'll because many wont sell so low?
Old 07-01-2013, 03:31 PM
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I would not buy more to lower your average cost. You already have enough in it.

It is important for you to realize that there are no "secret tips". With 100's or 1,000's of commodities specialists, what makes you think your guy has a secret?

It is also impossible for anyone to predict where it goes from here. People can guess and make predictions, but it will only be based on the same information everyone else has.

Keep in mind that every transaction has two sides. Each side believes the current price is accurate.

I can't give you specific advice, but here is how I would look at it. There are two risks. You can sell and it goes back up. You can hold and it continues down. Which are you more comfortable with?
Old 07-01-2013, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by RussH View Post
The Internet is filled with talk of silver going up significantly.

I'm suggesting you buy silver or you will be sorry you didn't.

Russ

Originally Posted by RussH View Post
I didn't read anything that said it was going to drop like it has.

Any swamy's out there care to predict what is going to happen with silver pricing?

Russ
Old 07-01-2013, 03:34 PM
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Gold is down to.
Old 07-01-2013, 03:48 PM
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Part of the issue is people loaded up in the 30's and now are out 1/3 or more. They do not want to loose any more $$ so they bail. strong sellers still out there.

My view on the precious metal
Markets have run their course and will continue to be soft. I remember your threads from a whole back. I have been buying small from when it was $33, down to $18ish the other day. I think there is a real possibility it hits $13 or even a little lower but who knows. I'm buying 20oz+/- of bullion a month and have been for over tge past year. Long term accumulation for me 10+ year strategy.

For your position with an average price around $27ish? I would wait and see. I doubt you will be breaking even any time soon but if it drops lower I would Nibble at it if you have any crazy cash lying around.
Old 07-01-2013, 03:50 PM
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It drop in 2011 with the same fury,
now the big question???

Will it slide further or rebound like in 2011...
Old 07-01-2013, 03:58 PM
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Russ,
Do you like to read?
Your in sales, corrcect?
Old 07-01-2013, 03:59 PM
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Gold and Silver is toast....you gutys didn't hear??? Bitcoin is taking over
Old 07-01-2013, 03:59 PM
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Russ,
I would NOT sell oil stocks ! I'd probably maintain my position and hope it goes back up. I don't mean to be a smart ass but from your past threads, you seem to be "out to make a fast buck in the market" . It's one thing to speculate with money you can afford to lose but buying silver/penny stocks etc. on the advise of a "commodity expert" or because you got a hot tip is foolish. Hopefully, you've learned a lesson here. Stick to quality, dividend paying stocks and you'll be ahead in the long run.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Semper Fi-sh View Post
Gold and Silver is toast....you gutys didn't hear??? Bitcoin is taking over
I wouldn't use or put money into bitcoin.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:23 PM
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Interesting drop, I watched this a few days ago and honestly want to see this guy disproven this time...http://pro.stansberryresearch.com/13...P2YR/PPSIP621/

Can't afford another crash...he is likely the source of your brokers "secret". If his 1/16th equation of gold to Silver is accurate you should be ok holding Silver as it is well below that ratio.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:25 PM
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Like I said in your previous thread, silver is very volatile... not for the faint of heart.

A little history about me, I have been buying silver and gold for app. 20 years now. Most of what I have bought was simply "extra" money and some serious purchases. I guess I am one of the lucky ones that got in back in the day when both were dirt cheap. I sold the majority of my precious metal holdings back when Silver was $35... I just got lucky, it crashed shortly thereafter.

Disclaimer: Last night, I stayed at a roadside "express" rundown motel where the roaches pack AK-47s.... so I know a thing or two.

IMO there is a number of things that have Silver in the dumps.
- QE going to the wayside
- It is summer, take a look at what silver normally does in the summertime. Does "Go away in May" ring a bell?
- Investors (the ones with large accounts that move the index) of metals think the economy is doing better...it doesn't matter what Youtube, the end of the world people, or some mega Silver bull thinks, the big boys think it is better.
- Over seas markets have been a large influence on the last beatdown
- Physical holders, you know, the guys that are preaching silver is the best thing since sliced bread... are only app. 2% of the market. Most of the physical metal holders have absolutely no clue about investing. They don't trust the Government and then go on to complain about how much the Government manipulates the Silver market. ;?
- Last, Silver is a small market strongly influenced by a few big boys.


The above is simply my opinion. My best advice to anyone that got in recently (google "bloodbath") would be to hold until fall. Historically, Silver does make a comeback around the fall. As far as the bottom, your guess is as good as any... mine is $9. Hell, I will get in if we see $9.

Good luck and don't be afraid to hang on until fall.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:30 PM
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I don't know any more than the average investor, but silver isn't really a precious metal like gold or platinum (which derives its value from investment as a hedge - it is more like copper, aluminum and steel - an industrial metal, albeit one with a traditionally higher value.
Based upon the current market for the metal, don't be surprised to see silver bottom out in the $12-14 range later this year.
Unless you need to trigger some capital losses, I wouldn't sell any silver, but I wouldn't sell anything else to buy it either. In 2009 it was down to about $9, so that is probably the absolute floor - I don't expect it to get that low.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
Russ,
I would NOT sell oil stocks ! I'd probably maintain my position and hope it goes back up. I don't mean to be a smart ass but from your past threads, you seem to be "out to make a fast buck in the market" . It's one thing to speculate with money you can afford to lose but buying silver/penny stocks etc. on the advise of a "commodity expert" or because you got a hot tip is foolish. Hopefully, you've learned a lesson here. Stick to quality, dividend paying stocks and you'll be ahead in the long run.
Quality dividends paying stocks are an important part of any portfolio, but they aren't the end all be all. I own a fair amount of silver and silver miners. Probably around 7% of my total portfolio is silver in some form or another. i have my reasons, and am not going to be convinced otherwise, certainly not by a fishing website (though I have bought stocks I heard about on tht).

Its beat up, but I'm not selling. I said a while back if it dropped below $17 I'd bet the farm on it, but I don't know If I have the stomach. I will, however, buy some options on it if it dips again, there are some very attractive options in early 2014. The miners have had two good days (though I think the metal itself finished slightly low today).

One thing I took from your original post is " I didn't read anything bad about it anywhere". Look at guys like warren Buffett, who continuously beat the market. They do it by bucking trends, not riding on bandwagons. Its the Fox News and NPR rule, as I call it. When Fox News and NPR are saying the same thing about something, you have missed the boat.

I know your oil picks, you've mentioned them before to me. I would not sell any of them to buy more silver. But that's just me. Obviously you can and will make your own decision. Good luck.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:49 PM
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No question that I learned my lesson. Ya gotta remember that I am a total newbie to buying/selling stocks, newbie's learn from their mistakes. I won't do it again on a recommendation and I've totally quit screwing with penny stocks. In the beginning my goal was to get richer quick, again that was a mistake.

I think silver will go back up but it may be a couple of years b4 it does. I'm just lost to much to sell it now and I can wait long term, I don't want to but my decision was made for me.



[quote=Double tyme;5782249]
Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
Russ,
I would NOT sell oil stocks ! I'd probably maintain my position and hope it goes back up. I don't mean to be a smart ass but from your past threads, you seem to be "out to make a fast buck in the market" . It's one thing to speculate with money you can afford to lose but buying silver/penny stocks etc. on the advise of a "commodity expert" or because you got a hot tip is foolish. Hopefully, you've learned a lesson here. Stick to quality, dividend paying stocks and you'll be ahead in the long run.[/QUOTE

Quality dividends paying stocks are an important part of any portfolio, but they aren't the end all be all. I own a fair amount of silver and silver miners. Probably around 10% of my total portfolio is silver in some form or another. i have my reasons, and am not going to be convinced otherwise, certainly not by a fishing website (though I have bought stocks I heard about on tht).

Its beat up, but I'm not selling. I said a while back if it dropped below $17 I'd bet the farm on it, but I don't know If I have the stomach. I will, however, buy some options on it if it dips again, there are some very attractive options in early 2014. The miners have had two good days (though I think the metal itself finished slightly low today).

One thing I took from your original post is " I didn't read anything bad about it anywhere". Look at guys like warren Buffett, who continuously beat the market. They do it by bucking trends, not riding on bandwagons. Its the Fox News and NPR rule, as I call it. When Fox News and NPR are saying the same thing about something, you have missed the boat.

I know your oil picks, you've mentioned them before to me. I would not sell any of them to buy more silver. But that's just me. Obviously you can and will make your own decision. Good luck.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:49 PM
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Warren Buffet, give me a break, Its not hard to make it when you have the inside information.

Geeze Russ you are trying to day trade the penny market and ride the commodities market. You have to pick one and try to become some what good at it. Its like baseball you only have to hit 25-30% in the penny market to stay positive, not get rich but make a little money.

If you want one thing then I would suggest options, you can put on different spreads that almost always makes a little money, not a ton but over time it can add up.
Old 07-01-2013, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by aubv View Post
Russ,
Do you like to read?
Your in sales, corrcect?
Yup & yup
Old 07-01-2013, 05:03 PM
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Russ - not to be a smart ass, but what specifically makes you think it will go up?
Old 07-01-2013, 05:04 PM
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Originally Posted by bellsisland View Post
Warren Buffet, give me a break, Its not hard to make it when you have the inside information.
I know, I know. But he was a good example to illustrate my point about bucking market trends.

I get an email from my finance guy each week talking about net sellers and net buyers for the given week. Its hilarious as "individual" investors like Russ, you, and me, are constantly buying on the upswing and then panic selling on the downswing. That is exactly how you don't make money.

Russ, sell that silly mid life crisis mobile, hang onto your silver.

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