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Old 04-04-2013, 11:53 AM
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http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily...154459119.html
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Old 04-04-2013, 12:57 PM
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So you going to short them?
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:25 PM
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Yeah, that is a tough one. That report is assuming that they don't come out with any new innovations like google has done. I am not buying any microsoft stock but definitely not betting against them either.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:32 PM
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Perhaps as a growth stock..but certainly not as a relied upon company with a valuable product. There's a huge install base of Exchange, Server (just about every incarnation), Office and Windows desktop out there...not to mention the number of software packages that require the Windows OS to run.

A large majority of companies still rely on M$ for their computing, and that won't change in 4 years.
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Old 04-04-2013, 01:45 PM
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Ridiculous article - invalid comparison.

iPads, Nexus 7's, Galaxy Note 10's are toys.

I'd like to see an iPad run my HVAC system, office VOIP / paging / messaging, digital signage.
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Old 04-04-2013, 02:57 PM
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i don't see it as invalid at all.

Smartphones and tablets are outselling PC's by an ever increasing margin, so that means, unless they can increase their market share in the smartphone/tablet market, they will start to lose business.

That does NOT mean that computers as we know them will go away, but it does mean that they may play a less prominent role.

You can run enterprise level linux systems for servers. Both Android and OS X are linux based operating systems.

I have an HP laptop, Motorola tablet, and Samsung smartphone.
Wife has HP laptop, Ipad tablet, and HTC smartphone.
Daughter has no laptop, samsung tablet, no phone, and Ipod touch (she's 8).

So today, Microsoft is running on 2 out of 8 devices in our home.
Five years ago, Microsoft was running on 4 out of 4.

While an ipad won't run the items listed above, you can have linux based scada systems, and Asterisk VOIP is linux based. The point is, more and more things can be done without windows, so they are becoming less relevant. An ipad doesn't need to run your office for windows to become less relevant, nor does it mean you'll use them for everything. That said, on my last business trip I only needed to read some documents, go over a powerpoint presentation, catch up on some email, and then I watched a movie. I did it all on my tablet, which was far less hassle than firing up my laptop.

Would I create a powerpoint on it? Absolutely not. Would I do heavy document editing on it? No way. Do I find myself using the tablet more and the laptop less? Yes.

As operating systems and hardware improve, I can see someday my phone will pop into the back of my tablet, which is nothing more than a shell display and battery. Then I can remove my phone from the back of the tablet and slide it into a slot in my docking station and turn it into a PC.

My previous laptop (not the one I have currently) had an 80gb hard drive. Right now, my smartphone has 64gb of storage. Not really that far behind, timewise.
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Old 04-04-2013, 03:45 PM
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Millions of servers around the world run Microsoft Windows Server, Internet Information Server, SQL Server, Outlook, Sharepoint, et. al.

Windows isn't exactly dead either (but they're trying).

Microsoft isn't going anywhere.
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Old 04-04-2013, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jobowker View Post
i don't see it as invalid at all.

Smartphones and tablets are outselling PC's by an ever increasing margin, so that means, unless they can increase their market share in the smartphone/tablet market, they will start to lose business.

That does NOT mean that computers as we know them will go away, but it does mean that they may play a less prominent role.

You can run enterprise level linux systems for servers. Both Android and OS X are linux based operating systems.

I have an HP laptop, Motorola tablet, and Samsung smartphone.
Wife has HP laptop, Ipad tablet, and HTC smartphone.
Daughter has no laptop, samsung tablet, no phone, and Ipod touch (she's 8).

So today, Microsoft is running on 2 out of 8 devices in our home.
Five years ago, Microsoft was running on 4 out of 4.

While an ipad won't run the items listed above, you can have linux based scada systems, and Asterisk VOIP is linux based. The point is, more and more things can be done without windows, so they are becoming less relevant. An ipad doesn't need to run your office for windows to become less relevant, nor does it mean you'll use them for everything. That said, on my last business trip I only needed to read some documents, go over a powerpoint presentation, catch up on some email, and then I watched a movie. I did it all on my tablet, which was far less hassle than firing up my laptop.

Would I create a powerpoint on it? Absolutely not. Would I do heavy document editing on it? No way. Do I find myself using the tablet more and the laptop less? Yes.

As operating systems and hardware improve, I can see someday my phone will pop into the back of my tablet, which is nothing more than a shell display and battery. Then I can remove my phone from the back of the tablet and slide it into a slot in my docking station and turn it into a PC.

My previous laptop (not the one I have currently) had an 80gb hard drive. Right now, my smartphone has 64gb of storage. Not really that far behind, timewise.

Actually..OSX is a Unix based operating system.

And just about everything you stated was for personal use, not for a business, enterprise class environment. Even if every business that uses Windows (in any flavor) wanted to get rid of it tomorow (and many would love to get rid of the licensing fees), they simply couldn;t move that fast. I'd bet there is still a >30% share of Windows 2003 Server in use in businesses..and thats an 11 year old OS. Windows 2008 really didn't start taking off as a platform until about 2009-2010. Windows Server 2012, with its many changes, may take 2-3 more years to grab market share. But it will continue to increase.

And thats where the money is made. Microsoft has to sell a ton of $80 Windows home / personal use licenses to equal a years worth of just one mid size companies licensing fees for desktops, Office, SQL, CRM, Exchange and a ton of other business apps used everyday.

VMware has said for years that they were working towards having an OS free virtual environment; where the application uses an open source language and directly speaks to the hypervisor, eliminating the need for an OS (ANY OS) altogether. I heard that at least 2 years ago; It hasn't made a ding in any market yet.

So yeah..I agree..that article is crap.
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Old 04-04-2013, 06:37 PM
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Microsoft earned $800 million from Android royalties in Q2 2012

http://www.androidauthority.com/micr...2-2012-106017/
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Old 04-04-2013, 07:13 PM
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I have those gadgets too, but all I do with them is look at a map, look up a restaurant, check my email and play some dumb games.

When its time to do some real work its a PC - Windows or Mac.

I'll give it to Google and Apple - they've done a great job in preventing Microsoft from capturing the gadget market. In fact, I'd say they've cornered Microsoft to the enterprise / business market where neither Apple or Google seems to be interested in pursuing.
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Old 04-05-2013, 07:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
Actually..OSX is a Unix based operating system.

And just about everything you stated was for personal use, not for a business, enterprise class environment. Even if every business that uses Windows (in any flavor) wanted to get rid of it tomorow (and many would love to get rid of the licensing fees), they simply couldn;t move that fast. I'd bet there is still a >30% share of Windows 2003 Server in use in businesses..and thats an 11 year old OS. Windows 2008 really didn't start taking off as a platform until about 2009-2010. Windows Server 2012, with its many changes, may take 2-3 more years to grab market share. But it will continue to increase.

And thats where the money is made. Microsoft has to sell a ton of $80 Windows home / personal use licenses to equal a years worth of just one mid size companies licensing fees for desktops, Office, SQL, CRM, Exchange and a ton of other business apps used everyday.

VMware has said for years that they were working towards having an OS free virtual environment; where the application uses an open source language and directly speaks to the hypervisor, eliminating the need for an OS (ANY OS) altogether. I heard that at least 2 years ago; It hasn't made a ding in any market yet.

So yeah..I agree..that article is crap.
You're right, OS X is a unix based posix compliant OS. I should have said linux, android, OS X, and unix all come from the same family. The point is that they are all related, and all non-microsoft.

Yes, I think enterprises will move far slower. Many companies still have quite a few XP boxes, maybe half XP and half win7, having skipped Vista altogether. Lots still have people running around with Blackberries. But even if they are moving slower, if they are still moving in the same direction, then Microsoft will start to become less relevant.

Right now, Microsoft is a leader in desktops, and a still a player in smartphones & tablets. They also dominate in the server market. Now if they fail to remain viable in the consumer smartphone market, and fail to compete in the tablet market, that alone makes them less relevant. Smaller relevance doesn't mean they are going to go away, it just means they lose market share, revenue, and influence, even if they stay strong for the enterprise.

Increased adoption of windows 2008r2 servers doesn't mean much by itself. If I had Windows 2003, and I upgraded to 2008R2, MS didn't gain or lose market. They got paid, but they didn't gain or lose any market share. A better metric would be any changes in the percentage of non-microsoft servers, which right now is very very low.

Changes in the consumer market can change the enterprise landscape over time. Back in the day, the internet ran on unix boxes, but then windows servers started creeping in and unix servers became less relevant. So the same thing that helped Microsoft back in the day can hurt them later on.

Additionally, as Linux distributions gain popularity in the consumer space, this too can affect enterprises as companies slowly adopt linux based servers. Remember that the enterprise was the last big bastion for Blackberries, but once RIM lost the consumer market and failed to make crucial corrections, their days as a major player were numbered. It still took quite a while because the enterprise market moves slower, and RIM was only into smartphones and not as diversified as MS.

I don't think Microsoft is going to go bankrupt, but I do see them playing a much smaller role going forward unless they take corrective action. They are diversified enough that it won't happen overnight, but that doesn't mean it's not happening.

Ipads took off - what if some of those Ipad users work for a small company and bring in an Apple server for a pet project? Many more people today (still mostly geeks) dual boot their laptops with Ubuntu - what happens when they start spending more time botted up with Linux? What about when small companies decide they want to save money by using OpenOffice?

Microsoft is trying to get us to move to Office 365 to provide a constant recurring revenue stream. It's a fantastic business model for them as it brings in steady monthly recurring revenue. Enterprises will be the last to change, and Microsoft will continue to make money for a long time, but even a large company dying a little at a time is still dying. It just takes a lot longer.

If year over year your market share goes 99%,94%,87%,79%,70% and finally 60%, I'd argue you are losing influence. (These numbers are made up.) You may still be the biggest player, and you may still be making a billion dollars in the enterprise space, but you still need to start looking at the tea leaves.

I bet in 10 years Microsoft will still be raking in money hand over fist, but it will be other companies profiting from smartphones, tablets, small netbooks, computer systems in cars, and startup companies.
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Old 04-05-2013, 08:59 AM
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http://www.fool.com/investing/genera...microsoft.aspx
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Old 04-06-2013, 10:50 AM
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http://beta.fool.com/joekurtz/2013/0...gyholnk0000001
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Old 04-10-2013, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by makonnen View Post
Ridiculous article - invalid comparison.

iPads, Nexus 7's, Galaxy Note 10's are toys.

I'd like to see an iPad run my HVAC system, office VOIP / paging / messaging, digital signage.
In 2017, it will be possible,

http://beta.fool.com/joekurtz/2013/0...gyholnk0000001

You will have a touch screen TV, that connects to your smart phone and go from there...
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Old 04-10-2013, 11:20 AM
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Originally Posted by makonnen View Post
Ridiculous article - invalid comparison.

iPads, Nexus 7's, Galaxy Note 10's are toys.

I'd like to see an iPad run my HVAC system, office VOIP / paging / messaging, digital signage.
There are already several manufacturers that have thermostats that can be run by windows, ios, and android, The neat part is you can turn on your ac remotely before you get home on a hot day and have the house nice and cool by the time you arrive.

I have two of https://my.radiothermostat.com/filtrete/. One for each floor.

Another popular model is this http://www.nest.com/

I'm pretty sure there are apps already to do all that you have listed.
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Old 04-10-2013, 05:01 PM
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It's funny, I remember years ago having this same argument with a group of mainframe CICS programmers who told me that PC's and intel based machines are never going to take over - they are just toys - all of the heavy lifting is done with mainframes.
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Old 04-10-2013, 08:09 PM
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Originally Posted by jobowker View Post
It's funny, I remember years ago having this same argument with a group of mainframe CICS programmers who told me that PC's and intel based machines are never going to take over - they are just toys - all of the heavy lifting is done with mainframes.

It still is.
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Old 04-10-2013, 09:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
It still is.
Really? Do tell.
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Old 04-11-2013, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by river_boater View Post
Really? Do tell.
There aren't any Wintel Servers, or even Unix boxes that can do millions of processes per second the way the mainframes do as reliably nor in as scaleable an architecture.

There's a reason why banks, insurance companies, automakers, and the airlines still use mainframes.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/...age/57066816/1
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Old 04-11-2013, 06:37 PM
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Not scaleable? How many mainframes does google use?

So while they still play a role, fewer and fewer companies use them anymore. Large businesses that still use mainframes often do so because porting over to an entirely new platform would be a massive effort. And even with that, many use their mainframes for fewer and fewer functions.

The space shuttle ran off a Vax PDP-11 - do you expect me to believe that there aren't any wintel servers that can beat a PDP-11? They used it because that's what it started with, and it's cheaper/easier/less risk to keep what you have. That's the reason companies are using code written 30 years ago.
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