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Old 04-18-2012, 05:03 AM
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Any predictions for the next 6 months, leading up to the election...

Anyone see a dip coming?
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Old 04-18-2012, 05:20 AM
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Dunno about the stock market, but there are plenty of dips running for re-election.
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Old 04-18-2012, 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by RedSoxMan View Post
Any predictions for the next 6 months, leading up to the election...

Anyone see a dip coming?
I like Regions Bank stock symbol RF
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Old 04-18-2012, 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by yarcraft91 View Post
Dunno about the stock market, but there are plenty of dips running for re-election.
X2
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Old 04-18-2012, 07:27 AM
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It is easier to predict the weather than predict the market, and how do the experts do on that?

Market prediction/timing is a loosing proposition. The one constant truth is that the market seeks to dissapoint the maximum number of people.
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Old 04-18-2012, 07:37 AM
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"sell in may and go away" is my thinking.
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Old 04-18-2012, 07:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
"sell in may and go away" is my thinking.
I always invest based on rhymes.
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Old 04-18-2012, 07:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Boataholic View Post
"sell in may and go away" is my thinking.
I think they have internet connections in the Hamptons, so that saying is no longer as relevant as it once was.
I usually expect a March low, and expect it to be retested mid summer, so I believe we are overdue for a pull back, having nothing to do with the election.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:50 AM
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there may be a dip coming, BUT the general trend for the past 3 years has been steady growth.
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Old 04-18-2012, 08:56 AM
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Originally Posted by uncljohn View Post
there may be a dip coming, BUT the general trend for the past 3 years has been steady growth.

Yep that's for sure - just as that loud mouth Cramer predicted if Obama won last time .... but now that all the IRA money for 2011 is in do we expect a dip here?
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:17 AM
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Originally Posted by uncljohn View Post
there may be a dip coming, BUT the general trend for the past 3 years has been steady growth.
Noticing the trend for the past whatever number of years is easy and unfortunately has no bearing on what the future brings.
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:37 AM
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No one mentions this, but one principle reason why the market keeps going up has to do with inflation... The market inflates while the dollar continues to de-value. This trend could well continue for a while...
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:46 AM
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One of the big factors in the market continues to be the instability of many European economies. If the Euro collapses, the market will not do well at all.

On the other hand, inflation looks like the only solution for most nation's debt problems, so inflation will ultimately prevail. You have to pick your poison. Those who are bearish will pick gold or other tangible assets. Those who have confidence in the fed will continue to stay vulnerable in the market.
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Old 04-18-2012, 11:34 AM
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Originally Posted by kerno View Post

If the Euro collapses, the market will not do well at all.

WHEN, not "if". Spain is going down, now, the Euro Central Bank is limited in what it can do, and Germany is already prepped to walk away from the Euro. You can read about it here:

The Germany/ ECB Relationship is Approaching its Breaking Point... Right As Spain Starts imploding

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...pain-starts-im
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Old 04-18-2012, 11:41 AM
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The market still believes Spain will remain viable - they had a decent (not spectacular) debt auction today.

Really eyeball, you need to get a few other sources beside zh for your apocalyptic analyses.

They do get it right sometimes. Sometimes.


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Old 04-18-2012, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Snapper Head View Post
The market still believes Spain will remain viable - they had a decent (not spectacular) debt auction today.

Really eyeball, you need to get a few other sources beside zh for your apocalyptic analyses.

They do get it right sometimes. Sometimes.
You do realize that article I quoted is not from Zero Hedge -- it is from Phoenix Capital Research, re-published on ZH. And fwiw, PCR accurately called the events leading up to the 2008 market collapse.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Eyeball View Post
You do realize that article I quoted is not from Zero Hedge -- it is from Phoenix Capital Research, re-published on ZH. And fwiw, PCR accurately called the events leading up to the 2008 market collapse.
Eyeball, are you getting out of the market right now?
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Eyeball View Post
You do realize that article I quoted is not from Zero Hedge -- it is from Phoenix Capital Research, re-published on ZH. And fwiw, PCR accurately called the events leading up to the 2008 market collapse.
Yes, I understood that. My point is that you often quote the zh site, touting doom.

Many firms and guru's were railing about things being unstable during the months and days prior to the pop.

I'm forecasting an early end to the work day followed by multiple cocktails. I will report back tomorrow on my accuracy.


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Old 04-18-2012, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Snapper Head View Post
I'm forecasting an early end to the work day followed by multiple cocktails. I will report back tomorrow on my accuracy.


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Old 04-18-2012, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by My Turn View Post
Noticing the trend for the past whatever number of years is easy and unfortunately has no bearing on what the future brings.
In the scientific sense, it has no "bearing" on the future market, except for the effect it has on speculators and consumer confidence which DO drive the market. As one of the people who is actually out there spending money and keeping the economy alive, the 40% increase in my 401K over pre-recession value is an amazing boost to MY consumer confidence.

ANYONE with investments in the market have seen steady gain for years and their consumer confidence should be at similar levels.

All economists agree that the European Market is currently the greatest threat to the US economy. ECONOMISTS. Not politicians.
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