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Old 03-08-2012, 05:44 PM
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4 hrs 30 mins ... and waiting.

A bond holder found a little overlooked detail in a tiny Greece railway bond with guaranteed government backing; any attempt to restructure the bond is considered a default, and the bond holders can demand immediate full repayment from the government. It has the potential of becoming an immediate $3-billion payment that Greece doesn't have now. One word: default.

4 hrs 20 mins ... and waiting.

Gold just jumped back over $1700 , silver over $33.

GL: 1700.74
SV: 33.88

4 hrs 16 mins ... and waiting.
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Old 03-08-2012, 05:46 PM
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Great time to buy investment property over there. Right on the beach
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:17 PM
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2 hrs 45 mins.

It has the potential to be a "credit event" -- something that impacts global markets.

GL: 1705.61
SV: 34.07

2 hrs 42 mins.

Supposedly the drama ends at 8:00 am Athens time ... or every market on the planet cascades into the toilet, at that time.

2 hrs 40 mins.
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
Party pooper.
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post

But did you look at Reuters?



EXCLUSIVE - Hedge funds find loophole to trigger Greek default


(Reuters) - Some hedge funds have found a legal loophole they believe will force Greece to repay some of its debt in full, three sources close to the matter said on Thursday, in a move that would intensify the standoff between the country and its debtors.


Greece closed a bond swap offer to private creditors on Thursday after clearing the minimum threshold of acceptance to push the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history. ...


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8270H520120308


DO NOT believe ANYTHING you are reading about Greek debt settlements!!!

There are only 3 or 4 people on the planet that actually "know" the status. Anyone, everyone else is literally talking out of their ass!!!

GL: 1705.67
SV: 34.03
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Old 03-08-2012, 07:51 PM
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Gd: 1706.08
sv: 34.05
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Old 03-08-2012, 08:14 PM
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So close ... yet, so far. It (a Greece default) was not to be ... yet. Make no mistake, it IS coming.



Greek bond swap success lifts rescue hopes

(Reuters) - Greece has successfully closed a bond swap offer aimed at reducing its colossal debt pile and averting a chaotic default that would pitch the euro zone into a fresh crisis.

Officials said take-up had clearly surpassed the minimum threshold required for the deal to go through, despite early fears that it could fall apart and derail a broader rescue package that Athens desperately needs to stave off bankruptcy.

The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history will see bond holders accept losses of some 74 percent on the value of their investments in a deal that will cut more than 100 billion euros from Greece's crippling public debt. ...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8270FH20120309

Can we believe it?


Apparently, some think not:

GL: 1706.33
SV: 34.05
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Old 03-09-2012, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by jebsurf View Post
Great time to buy investment property over there. Right on the beach
Do you know anything about owning property in Greece? That sounds pretty appealing.
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Old 03-09-2012, 07:45 AM
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You guys might want to hold off on buying anything in Greece. This was just round one of a three rounds of needed bond "correcting". The riots Greece has been experiencing is going to increase, you ain't seen nothing yet. Greece's GDP tanked -7.5 last QUARTER!!! It is not going to be a safe place to visit for awhile.

But in the meantime, while we are paused between Greek bond correcting, Spain will be entering the center ring for your amusement ...

After the announcement Greece had settled on it's bond issues (it is NOT settled, anyone that things so is stupid!) gold dropped back down in the 1680's. But look where gold is now that folks are starting to figure out, "hey, this Greek thing ain't settled!"

GD: 1708.30
SV: 34.20
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Old 03-09-2012, 12:15 PM
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Greece officially defaults.I guess now the question is how much is priced into the market already?Only a handful of points (3-4 points) off new multi year highs on the S&P.


http://www.businessinsider.com/its-o...#ixzz1oeQsiS53

In light of today’s EMEA Determinations Committee (the EMEA DC) unanimous decision in respect of the
potential Credit Event question relating to The Hellenic Republic (DC Issue 2012030901), the EMEA DC
has agreed to publish the following statement:

The EMEA DC resolved that a Restructuring Credit Event has occurred under Section 4.7 of the ISDA
2003 Credit Derivatives Definitions (as amended by the July 2009 Supplement) (the 2003 Definitions)
following the exercise by The Hellenic Republic of collective action clauses to amend the terms of Greek
law governed bonds issued by The Hellenic Republic (the Affected Bonds) such that the right of all
holders of the Affected Bonds to receive payments has been reduced.

The EMEA DC has resolved to hold an auction with respect to the settlement of standard credit default
swaps for which The Hellenic Republic is the reference entity. To maximise the range of obligations that
market participants may deliver in settlement of any such credit default swaps, the EMEA DC has agreed
to run an expedited auction process such that the auction itself will take place on March 19, 2012. In
light of this expedited auction process, market participants should submit any obligations that they
would like to include on the list of deliverable obligations to ISDA as soon as possible.
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Old 03-10-2012, 08:27 AM
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Originally Posted by tka View Post

Greece officially defaults.I guess now the question is how much is priced into the market already?Only a handful of points (3-4 points) off new multi year highs on the S&P.

Technically, Greece did not default. That's what all of the negotiations were about. They re-negotiated the terms of the bonds with the bond holders. That is what triggered the "credit event" (CDS - credit default swap).

I'm thinking to put my house down on a bet that Germany pulls out of the Euro. There is no way Greece can survive on the bailout, Germany knows it and doesn't want to play along like Greece can. Hell, Greece didn't make it 1-year on the last bail out and it was bigger than this bail out.

The only way for Greece to survive as a member of the Euro is to abandon her sovereignty -- let the leaders of various EU countries come together and tell her what to do and when to do it. Do you think the people of Greece are going to sit still and let that happen?

As every finance minister in the Euro banking committee has said, either "war in Europe is inevitable within 10-years", or "it will take a miracle to prevent war in Europe." It really is that financially bad over there.
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Old 03-10-2012, 08:39 AM
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If you make enough predictions, odds say that one day, you may be right.
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Old 03-10-2012, 01:31 PM
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Central bankers across the globe should be put in jail for the remainder of their miserable lives.
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Old 03-10-2012, 01:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Tireless View Post
Central bankers across the globe should be put in jail for the remainder of their miserable lives.
You are too kind.
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Old 03-10-2012, 03:41 PM
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our debt is owed in our own currency

makes a difference
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Old 03-10-2012, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by fichtion View Post
our debt is owed in our own currency

makes a difference

And 2 out of every 3 dollars of our currency is in circulation OUTSIDE of the US. We are genuinely f***ed. It's just a matter of waiting for it to arrive.
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Old 03-11-2012, 05:57 AM
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This should brighten your day......


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eight-...la-enters-room
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Old 03-11-2012, 06:08 AM
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Only s real macro stooge is worried about Greece. My son works at a macro desk at a medium sized hedge fund. Take a look at Japan debt maturities in the next 60 days, and overlay the yen. That's where the puck is going on the ice
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Old 03-11-2012, 06:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Tbrodes View Post
Only s real macro stooge is worried about Greece. My son works at a macro desk at a medium sized hedge fund. Take a look at Japan debt maturities in the next 60 days, and overlay the yen. That's where the puck is going on the ice
Everyone is worried about Greece. Greece's debt is not noteworthy. Hell, the whole country could dry and blow away and no one would notice. But Greece is part of the Euro zone. And how the Euro zone handles Greece defines how the Euro zone will handle Spain (next up in Europe), Italy, Ireland, Portugal ... And anyone one of those countries' debt IS something to be very worried about.

Yeah Japan is seriously over extended. Funds are set up to short the yen as the JCB started the printing presses last month and hasn't stopped them yet. Here is the real kicker ... the US Treasury is using non-standard accounting methods to report the US debt. If our debt was calculated the same way Japan calculates her debt, we are in even deeper doo-doo than Japan. The US is over-extended way more than Japan is.
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Old 03-11-2012, 07:30 AM
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the eight biggest banks in the world will now go broke ?

The BIS shows the sum of default swaps for greece at 67 trillion
with a T......trillion

defaulting on the debt is not the problem, the problem is the CDS are triggered.

Google
ISDA

and
BIS


educate yourself





ISDA Says Greece In Default, CDS Will Trigger
3/09/2012 @ 2:51PM
UPDATE 2 (2:48 p.m.): ISDA has now declared that Greece’s restructuring does represent a default, meaning credit default swaps will trigger. Read the statement here.
UPDATE (2:43 p.m.): An ISDA spokesman told Forbes no decision has been reached regarding on whether Greece’s restructuring qualifies as a credit event, which would in turn trigger CDS protection.
A report by Derivatives Intelligence published around 2:00 PM New York time said the ISDA had indeed considered the PSI/debt restructuring deal a credit event. Their report from the supposed ISDA release, noting the application of collective action clauses had “reduced” bondholders’ ability to receive payments, and that an auction for outstanding CDS would be held March 19.
Kevin Dugan, the journalist who published the initial report, tweeted a picture of the ISDA’s supposed press release.
Greece did it! The Hellenic Republic executed the highly controversial PSI or debt restructuring deal, getting 85.8% of holders of Greek-law governed bonds and 69% of foreign-law bonds to tender. All eyes will now fall on the ISDA as the Greek government uses collective action clauses (CACs) to force holders of bonds governed by domestic law to take the debt swap, potentially triggering credit default swaps (CDS).
While Greece hasn’t missed a bond payment yet, it has effectively defaulted by forcing a 74% haircut on those creditors that held out, as Fitch’s calculations in their recent downgrade of Greece’s sovereign rating to “selective default” show. The question of a Greek default may appear superfluous to some, given the country is relatively small and has been bailed out, but the resolution of the situation will set historical precedents that could take on massive importance if other peripherals, particularly Spain and Italy, face serious financing problems.
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