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401K talk.....

Old 06-01-2011, 06:17 PM
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Default 401K talk.....

So today was a pretty ugly day in the market. Clearly all the economic indicators are indicating a slowdown in the economy.

Are yall taking money off the table?

I have been looking at ERY (3x Bear Energy ETF)

We had broken the downtrend on the SPY only to fall back in it today.

Thoughts?

Should we sit back and watch our 401Ks evaporate?
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:27 PM
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Relax.
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Old 06-01-2011, 06:28 PM
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Only if you plan on pulling money out next week.

You'll never successfully time the market.
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Old 06-01-2011, 07:45 PM
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My son's work place has stopped their matching funds on the 401K, so he took some of that money and bought five years toward his retirement. Wish I could have done that.
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Old 06-01-2011, 07:48 PM
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Originally Posted by KJS View Post
Relax.

Exactly unless you plan on retiring in the next 5 years or you have a ways to go before you do ride it out and keep an eye on your funds i check my 401k every 6 months
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Old 06-01-2011, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by the good life View Post
My son's work place has stopped their matching funds on the 401K, so he took some of that money and bought five years toward his retirement. Wish I could have done that.
huh?
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
huh?
Well, you see, that the 401K wasn't really doing so well, then the matching funds by the employer was stopped, so instead of having X amount of years in the company, he now has X plus 5 years in the company (on paper), which means he can retire at the minimum age of retirement but actually be five years younger than required retirement minimum age, thus enjoying retirement sooner than normal.

I hope you get it because I can't find anymore words to describe it and I suck at drawing pictures.
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:08 PM
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Wouldn't being able to retire depend on how much money you have to live on, rather than how long you work somewhere?

I mean if I could, I'd retire yesterday..but I can't.
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:16 PM
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Not that I follow what I'm about to say, but I think you can time the market. Of course not perfectly so. Think about the past 4 to 5 years. When the DOW hit 14k, did anyone really think it was going to go much higher? When it dropped down to the 6k range, did anyone really think it was going to go much lower? When it recently hit the 12.5k range, I kinda figured it was near the top.

My question is, when you want to move your investments to something really safe (opposite of stocks, market risk wise), where do you put it?
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Brad1 View Post
Not that I follow what I'm about to say, but I think you can time the market. Of course not perfectly so. Think about the past 4 to 5 years. When the DOW hit 14k, did anyone really think it was going to go much higher? When it dropped down to the 6k range, did anyone really think it was going to go much lower? When it recently hit the 12.5k range, I kinda figured it was near the top.

My question is, when you want to move your investments to something really safe (opposite of stocks, market risk wise), where do you put it?

I am kinda with you. The days of buy and hold are over. Should I sit and watch my 401K get smaller and smaller when everyone else is dumping?

Of course not.
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Old 06-01-2011, 08:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
Wouldn't being able to retire depend on how much money you have to live on, rather than how long you work somewhere?

I mean if I could, I'd retire yesterday..but I can't.
In my case, I made a rather hasty decision to retire after only researching options for a few weeks. After talking to some advisers, I knew EXACTLY what I was going to get, to the dollar and just took the plunge. Gave my boss five days notice and left. I haven't regretted it four years down the road now! I actually could have retired much earlier if I had started investigating my options sooner instead of procrastinating.

In my son's case, his job is very secure and I will be leaving him a tidy sum for his future.

Good luck.
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Old 06-02-2011, 04:18 AM
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I am keeping with my existing allocation to equities, which is 80%.

If you are thinking about selling because you feel the market is headed down, think of it as managing risk as opposed to timing the market. What you are saying to yourself is that you would rather forego potential upside for the safety of reducing the downside potential. This is what you are really doing. It's not a matter of whether you "can" time the market, it's about managing risk.

Also, I don't agree that "buy and hold is dead". It depends on the returns you are shooting for. The talk of a lost decade is also ridiculous, as it only applies to large cap domestic stocks as tracked by the S&P 500. A well diversified portfolio had reasonable, although less than historical, long-term returns over the past 10 years. Equities still outperformed bonds during the period.
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Old 06-02-2011, 05:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
You'll never successfully time the market.
I have.

So have many others. It got a shedload more difficult after Herr Sturmtrooper Spitzer dismantled 90% of the infrastructure that allowed for sound market timing. You know, in the name of all that was good and moral.

I don't manage much of my own money, because I'm fairly stupid; I pay the pros to do it. I do have some play cash and some algorithms I use to time the market, and more specifically energy commodities. It's a hobby, not a mission.

Market timing isn't dead, but it sure ain't for everyone.


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Old 06-02-2011, 05:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Brad1 View Post
Not that I follow what I'm about to say, but I think you can time the market. Of course not perfectly so. Think about the past 4 to 5 years. When the DOW hit 14k, did anyone really think it was going to go much higher? When it dropped down to the 6k range, did anyone really think it was going to go much lower?
From this I'll take it you never read any of the stock market threads on THT.
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Old 06-02-2011, 07:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Snapper Head View Post
I pay the pros to do it. I do have some play cash and some algorithms I use to time the market, and more specifically energy commodities. It's a hobby, not a mission.

Market timing isn't dead, but it sure ain't for everyone.


Big Al
Even some "pros" have a bad time. More specifically, my GF and her friend who are both retired, just dumped an investment "pro". My GF lost about $60K and her friend lost over $200,000 with that "pro".

My retirement funds are invested in medium to safe investments. No need to make a killing anymore, just a steady income.
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Old 06-02-2011, 07:33 AM
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I just went in with more than I had in last week. I don't see any long range events that would spook this market into a long term downtrend. Just a temporary blip down. Keeping your money in has always been a better bet than trying to avoid the occasional pothole. I look at my 401K everyday for 15 years and log the daily results on an excel spreadsheet.

My opinion is that most money is still waiting for some economic or governmental signal to resume growth. Housing uptrends would help. Job news is going in the right direction, but slowly. IPO's are popping up like mushrooms. Positive signals are there waiting for some leadership direction from business. They control the money and the means.
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Old 06-02-2011, 07:50 AM
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How about cashing out take the losses and buy a second home .... ??
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Old 06-02-2011, 08:59 AM
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Who cares what happened today? What did you do during the 2nd qtr of 2007? Did you dump all your stock?

I watched my portfolio get cut in half during 2007, and now I'm 100% above pre-2007 value. Not 100% OF my 2007 value. 100% OVER it.

The economy has been doing great for the past 2 years. Holdings giving consistent double-digit returns across the board. Stock dividends up. The only troublesome econ indicators are new home sales (which are tepid) and unemployment. And all experts know unemployment is THE lagging economic indicator. Though many choose to ignore that.

So what are the "clearly all indicators" you reference?
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Old 06-02-2011, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by uncljohn View Post
Who cares what happened today? What did you do during the 2nd qtr of 2007? Did you dump all your stock?

I watched my portfolio get cut in half during 2007, and now I'm 100% above pre-2007 value. Not 100% OF my 2007 value. 100% OVER it.

The economy has been doing great for the past 2 years. Holdings giving consistent double-digit returns across the board. Stock dividends up. The only troublesome econ indicators are new home sales (which are tepid) and unemployment. And all experts know unemployment is THE lagging economic indicator. Though many choose to ignore that.

So what are the "clearly all indicators" you reference?

Chicago PMI
Consumer Confidence
Mortgage Applications
ADP NonFarm
ISM Manufacturing Index
ISM Manufacturing Prices
Total Vehicle Sales
Initial Jobless Claims
Unit Labor Costs
Continuing Jobless Claims
Bloomberg Consumer Confidence

All missed and the above is just this weeks news
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Old 06-02-2011, 10:43 AM
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Bad news in the market for sure.... Bumpy summer then we should make up some of this.... Stay long, stay in dividend paying stocks and u will do fine for the year....

I still say we break DOW 14k in the next 12 months........
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