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Oil Demand in the Near Future

Old 04-14-2009, 05:29 PM
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Default Oil Demand in the Near Future

There is an interesting front page article in today's Wall Street Journal regarding the declining demand for oil-based fuels. ExxonMobil has separately announced that it will exit refining petroleum in the U.S. and will sell its remaining company owned Exxon and Mobil service stations.

The issue that bothers me on this issue is that just a year ago, there were shortages of what today the oil companies say is available in quantities approaching glut status.

Since taxes collected on oil product sales will reduce concurrently, I suppose we can watch the federal and state governments line up to jack the tax rates.

Here is a link to the article: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123957686061311925.html
Old 04-14-2009, 05:36 PM
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The oil companies and producers made a whole bunch of consumers mad when they played with prices. Not just people, but even the government and corporations are dead set against using anymore petroleum fuel than they have to.

The memory of gasoline above $4.00 a galon want go away soon.

I really feel so bad for Exxon. Some one should do something for them to help them out!
Old 04-14-2009, 05:39 PM
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That wasn't the Oil Companies and producers messing with the prices, it was the rich manipulating the market thru commodities trading.
Old 04-14-2009, 05:43 PM
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It is a little naive to think that the oil companies were not involved with the day traders and speculators.

When it is a win/win then both parties are involved.
Old 04-15-2009, 07:00 AM
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When the economy swings especially the world economy including India and China them prices will easily border 4.00/gal.

If you can't beat em join em! Better be buying oil now or don't bit@h later.
Old 04-15-2009, 07:09 AM
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Oil is priced on the world market not the cost of production and it will go up with demand which will happen.
Old 04-15-2009, 07:20 AM
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There was NEVER any shortage. Let me say it again. There was NEVER any shortage.

The oil companies was simply selling at what we were willing to pay. Nothing more.
Old 04-15-2009, 08:36 AM
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Those of you who want to believe in conspiracy theory are obviously free to believe what you want. Prices at the pump, no matter the type of fuel, are based on supply and demand (what the public is willing and/or capable of paying). There is no shortage of oil and there was never any actual shortage of oil supply. There are refining capability issues and credit for this can be given to environmental groups, environmental laws and government policy. For those of you who find happiness in seeing a company like Exxon experience tough times you are misguided. Exxon is an American company with American shareholders. There exist many pension funds, both union and non-union funds that hold oil company stocks and bonds. Wishing bad times for such an American company is like kicking oneself in the nuts. Exxon for example had a market capitalization of almost a half a trillion dollars when its stock price was at its high. I believe what many of you do not realize is that other foreign oil companies are nationalized (government owned). Some of these foreign oil companies, entities, institutions, whatever you wish to call them, have market capitalizations of a trillion dollars or more, thus being at least twice the financial size of Exxon for example. Exxon and our other domestic oil companies have to bid competitively on leases to drill for oil & gas with the likes of other giant oil companies/countries. For our financial, military and social sake, people should hope our American oil companies remain strong. Who helped big oil when it fell on hard times? Oil prices were well under $20 barrel and people were leaving the industry. Who helped the oil companies then?
Old 04-15-2009, 09:34 AM
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PROFINITY, I agree 100%.

There are an awful lot of hiljacks who believe in this conspiracy stuff. The main issue with the run up in prices a year ago and to a lesser extent at the moment was demand. It is waning only because of the economic armageddon the world is experiencing.

Those prices will be back! Ain't no doubt about it.
Old 04-15-2009, 10:14 AM
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If my memory serves me right Oil Companies have made RECORD profits for years... I dont think ill shed a tear for Exxon because of a bad 6 months.... I will also say I dont have any problem with ANY company making money but oil companies have been their own worst enemy, they help artifically inflate the price...
Old 04-15-2009, 10:52 AM
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Originally Posted by knowhowiroll View Post
PROFINITY, I agree 100%.

There are an awful lot of hiljacks who believe in this conspiracy stuff. The main issue with the run up in prices a year ago and to a lesser extent at the moment was demand. It is waning only because of the economic armageddon the world is experiencing.

Those prices will be back! Ain't no doubt about it.
Conspiracy sounds so cloak and daggerish. Let's just call it collusion.

Demand went up - sure it did, just like it went down after October. No collusion there, but if you simply point to the demand without considering the supply, you are missing the boat.

The reason that the price spiked was that supply was purposefully maintained at a level where it was just on the cusp of undersupply, and everyone on the financial side lined up on one side of the market with the producers to push up prices. Look at the price trend, and it was practically a straight line up.

If you ever want a simple model to analyze whether something happened when physical evidence is not available, ask yourself three questions:

1. Is there sufficient motivation for it to happen?

2. Are there those in a position to make it happen

3. Are there any potential countervailing forces to stop it from happening?

Apply this to the oil price spike, and the conclusion is clear - Yes, Yes, No.

If you disagree on the answers, let me know.

If you disagree on the premise, then you don't understand human nature.
Old 04-15-2009, 11:36 AM
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"If you ever want a simple model to analyze whether something happened when physical evidence is not available, ask yourself three questions:"

Enlighten me as to why it is not going on now?
Old 04-15-2009, 11:55 AM
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Default Oil Prices?????????????

The fact is that we Americans have historically paid cheaper oil prices than anywhere in the free world......historically. Do we like to pay $3, $4, $5..per gal....heck no!

Try this on for size...in New York City, at the pump, we pay over .50cents per gal in taxes...city federal, state, gross receipts, sales tax...taxes that are taxed (double taxation)....during the rise in gasoline prices that the politicians like Chuck Schumer and Hillery Clinton and Mayor Blumberg and Gov. Patterson were complaining about the oil companies and threatening investigations etc etc etc ad nauseum...I didn't hear one of them, not one of the fine upstanding politicians demand a moratoreum on taxes for the public...NOT ONE.... someday the people will wake up...God help these politicians then.......................
Old 04-15-2009, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Capt Lindsay View Post
ExxonMobil has separately announced that it will exit refining petroleum in the U.S. and will sell its remaining company owned Exxon and Mobil service stations.
Curious, over the past 7 years they have pushed out all of the mom and pop venders out and built "on the run's" in this area and now they want to sell them off? How are they going to exit refining in the US? Billions of dollars are tied up in the petro chemical industry refineries so will they sell them off also and to who? If they are not refining in the US nor or they distributing to the consumer then I can only guess that their HQs will soon be located out of the US so that they do not have to pay corporate income tax or deal with environmental regulations.
Old 04-15-2009, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by knowhowiroll View Post
"If you ever want a simple model to analyze whether something happened when physical evidence is not available, ask yourself three questions:"

Enlighten me as to why it is not going on now?
Easy - the third law of physics.

Or if you want the economics explanation, that which is inelastic in the short term is not necessarily inelastic in the long run.

One thing is certain about efforts to fight the invisible hand - at some point market psychology turns. You can't inflate a bubble forever, and the derivative hedging plays only worked if the market continues to inflate - it can not be sustained if prices are flat, which is why the trend was so unnaturally straight on the way up.
Old 04-15-2009, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by bsmit24 View Post
Curious, over the past 7 years they have pushed out all of the mom and pop venders out and built "on the run's" in this area and now they want to sell them off? How are they going to exit refining in the US? Billions of dollars are tied up in the petro chemical industry refineries so will they sell them off also and to who? If they are not refining in the US nor or they distributing to the consumer then I can only guess that their HQs will soon be located out of the US so that they do not have to pay corporate income tax or deal with environmental regulations.
It would actually help matters if the refineries were owned by those who do not own the oil, because that would take the incentive to hold back supply away from the refiners, because their upside would be based on volume.
Old 04-15-2009, 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by PROFINITY View Post

Those of you who want to believe in conspiracy theory are obviously free to believe what you want.
Originally Posted by knowhowiroll View Post

There are an awful lot of hiljacks who believe in this conspiracy stuff.
Originally Posted by joenew61 View Post

Conspiracy sounds so cloak and daggerish. Let's just call it collusion.



I don't know anything about any conspiracies. That said, let's take a look at some FACTS:



Fact: the Bilderbergs, the shakers and movers of this world, meet annually.

Fact: the Bilderbergs annual meeting is held in North America once every 4 or 5 years, usually in Canada.

Fact: the Bilderbergs met at the Chantilly Marriot Hotel in Virginia, in the spring of 2007.

Fact: Alex Jones, the granddaddy of Bilderberg conspiracy theorists, said in the spring of 2007 after the Bilderberg meeting, the Bilderbergs planned for:

-the cost of gasoline in the US to be at $4/gal by the summer of 2008,

-the cost of oil on the global market to be at $200/barrel by the end of 2008.

Fact: the cost of gasoline in the US was at $4/gal by the summer of 2008.

Fact: the cost of oil on the global market was well on its way to being at $200/barrel by the end of 2008. Problem: the US banks crashed in Sept/Oct, suddenly/unexpectedly sent the price of oil diving, and forever altered global economics.



Those are FACTS. Now you can bend them, twist them, shape them into anything you need them to be so that you are comfortable with them. Connect the dots any way that you want to, any way you need to, to get the results you desire.


.
Old 04-15-2009, 02:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Eyeball View Post
I don't know anything about any conspiracies. That said, let's take a look at some FACTS:



Fact: the Bilderbergs, the shakers and movers of this world, meet annually.

Fact: the Bilderbergs annual meeting is held in North America once every 4 or 5 years, usually in Canada.

Fact: the Bilderbergs met at the Chantilly Marriot Hotel in Virginia, in the spring of 2007.

Fact: Alex Jones, the granddaddy of Bilderberg conspiracy theorists, said in the spring of 2007 after the Bilderberg meeting, the Bilderbergs planned for:

-the cost of gasoline in the US to be at $4/gal by the summer of 2008,

-the cost of oil on the global market to be at $200/barrel by the end of 2008.

Fact: the cost of gasoline in the US was at $4/gal by the summer of 2008.

Fact: the cost of oil on the global market was well on its way to being at $200/barrel by the end of 2008. Problem: the US banks crashed in Sept/Oct, suddenly/unexpectedly sent the price of oil diving, and forever altered global economics.



Those are FACTS. Now you can bend them, twist them, shape them into anything you need them to be so that you are comfortable with them. Connect the dots any way that you want to, any way you need to, to get the results you desire.


.
Hey - you're preaching to the choir. I just changed the terminology because it is common practice now to call something a conspiracy in order to marginalize it.

I take my three question model beyond the tactical to the strategic, and come to the conclusion that we have never really shed ourselves of the monarchy concept. It's been going on for thousands of years, and a little thing like a magna carta and US constitution are just "temporary setbacks".

OK, now back to your regularly scheduled blue pill life.

How about that Adam Lambert - huh!
Old 04-16-2009, 06:40 AM
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Lets see, prices go up, I don't like it, I don't understand why.

Thus it is obvious that it must be some kind of conspiracy taking place, bernie madoff and jack ruby are probably orchestrating it.
Old 04-16-2009, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by SeaJay View Post
Lets see, prices go up, I don't like it, I don't understand why.

Thus it is obvious that it must be some kind of conspiracy taking place, bernie madoff and jack ruby are probably orchestrating it.
That's a nice comfortable oversimplification - thanks for the insight.

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