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Old 04-04-2009, 12:28 PM
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Another thread below discussess the Dow and predictions and all that. So as to not take over that thread - I have a question for you all ...

I have becomed very dissalusioned with stocks (and the economic policies and management or lack there of by ALL pols since Carter) and like many got cought in the 40-50% downturn with one of my retirement accounts. I now view the market as a gambling establishment and wil porbably only do some dya trading and pure speculation. This buy and hold crap sold to us via so called investment advisors amnd mutual funds and all those expert ninnies (who now once again miraculously have the inside info on what went wrong and how to make money) is just that - sucker money for the moneychangers and the financial industry's well connected. I am thinking if and when I ever make my money back to take it out of the market. Or to take it out after I get a certian % back. I am guessing there must be lots of guys like me and even though there is all this billions/trillions form us boomers on the sidelines now, it may infact go in to other safer or more tangible investments.

So my question is are you going to try to ride this back to 14000 and then hold on for new record setting highs somewhere later next decade - or are you gonna "bail-out" somewhere between here and 14000? Again I am talking about your old 4012 K or IRA money - not "new" money. And pleeze - don't tell me you got out at the peak and just got in at 7400 - other than the fact that I won't believe you - I don't wanna hear it (Like I seem to be the only person who ever lost money at the Casino)


Just curious........
Old 04-04-2009, 12:45 PM
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Here is my take, FWIW

Markets are manipulated. The only way to make money in them is play the game via short term trading using a variety of techniques and tools. If you study them well your chances of making money are way better than in a casino. When I buy something I immediately put a tight trailing stop on it. the longest I have held anything since the meltdown is 2 weeks, often it is a day or less. Don't fall in love with a stock or company, just get in, make a profit (or take a modest loss) and get out. And don't trade what the talking heads tell you to on CNBC or the like, it is almost always yesterday's news. I do like to listen to the CME trader's opinions early in the morning though as I think they have the only reliable read on where the market is heading each day.

If you must buy and hold with a percentage of your portfolio then decide on a fixed percentage you want in stocks and rebalance often, that way whenever there is a run up in stcoks you wind up selling some and taking profit.

I was lucky enough to mostly get out in September but have not put any long term money back in to stocks, have only traded. I want to retire in a few years and as long as I can make more than 6-8% a year or so I will be ok. I an 10% in stocks right now and short term trade another 10-15% of my portfolio. the rest is in safe havens.

Oh yea, I would also recommend you have at least 10% in metals in your custody, not in a bank unsafe deposit box.

One more thing, buy tips, lots and lots of tips.
Old 04-04-2009, 12:49 PM
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Interesting! My son (business student) and I have been trying to figure out what to do as well. Years ago I controlled all of my stocks and such, and did well. But as my wealth grew, I figured it was better to give it to the "proffesionals". After losing about 30% of my net in stocks, I canned his ass (as my son and I both decided) and am in the process of bringing back all of my stocks to Fidelity personal accounts.

The plan is to day trade now, which my son is handling (holy shit! he is up 42% in 2.5 months). And we are now looking at long term equities. Technolgy will be the first to pull us out of the ditch (believe me or not, but just take a look as some high-tech stocks..KOPN?...granted I own wayy to much a little higher, but doubling down did make some cash.

Also copper is going to be the tell tale. But so many industries are shattered that good buys are all over the place.

I have a solid 12 years before I would even think of retiring, money or not, I would get bored. But I think you need to feel out what your risk reward feeling is. The market is going to come back, as is inflation, and if not dealt with, so is another reccession in 2-3 years time. So day trade, trust your gut, and if your palm is sweating when you click, your buying too much.

I would earn back what you feel you wouldnt want to risk at all, and sock it away it money market funds. Use it to day trade. But we all found out the proffesionals dont know what they are doing half the time...
Sorry for the long post
Old 04-04-2009, 12:52 PM
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I took a beating the last two years by expecting that buying a stock after it lost another 10% was a good bet. Not. Then the first of the year I decided to stop looking at the market every day and just buy a stock paying good dividends...and I plunked a bunch into GE paying 6%. Lost 40% on that move within 3 months.
Last month I went all in and have gone back to day trading techs and pharmaceuticals. Up 60% so far.

To answer your question, there is no magic number like 14,000 that's a peak. If the market gets back to that (and we're all still alive), I'll be day trading like always...but will have a trailing stop on everything I buy.
Old 04-04-2009, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by My Turn View Post
Here is my take, FWIW

Markets are manipulated. The only way to make money in them is play the game via short term trading using a variety of techniques and tools. If you study them well your chances of making money are way better than in a casino.

If you must buy and hold with a percentage of your portfolio then decide on a fixed percentage you want in stocks and rebalance often, that way whenever there is a run up in stcoks you wind up selling some and taking profit.

I was lucky enough to mostly get out in September but have not put any long term money back in to stocks, have only traded. I want to retire in a few years and as long as I can make more than 6-8% a year or so I will be ok. I an 10% in stocks right now and short term trade another 10-15% of my portfolio. the rest is in safe havens.

Oh yea, I would also recommend you have at least 10% in metals in your custody, not in a bank unsafe deposit box.
Thanks sound sgood. Fortunately I did retire several years ago and can live reasonably comfortable on my pensions alone. But I still have more than 10 years before I have to start taking money from my deferred comp. (or IRA if I have to). (My casino/lottery/play money will go to stuff like F and GE. )

So actually I really don't want any in broad based Dow or Industrial stock funds which I have now, I plan to eventually switch that money to Gold and oil and natural resource base materials (like metals and such) ETFs.



The question is when -

Hey, good luck on your retirement plans. Mine didn't work out exactly as planned but I have a part-time job I love and the wife is working - probably till she drops....Remember most all those things you plan to do in retirement cost$$. But there is no price on happiness. And you HAVE to keep busy!
Old 04-04-2009, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by Tbrodes View Post
Interesting! My son (business student) and I have been trying to figure out what to do as well. Years ago I controlled all of my stocks and such, and did well. But as my wealth grew, I figured it was better to give it to the "proffesionals". After losing about 30% of my net in stocks, I canned his ass (as my son and I both decided) and am in the process of bringing back all of my stocks to Fidelity personal accounts.

The plan is to day trade now, which my son is handling (holy shit! he is up 42% in 2.5 months). And we are now looking at long term equities. Technolgy will be the first to pull us out of the ditch (believe me or not, but just take a look as some high-tech stocks..KOPN?...granted I own wayy to much a little higher, but doubling down did make some cash.

Also copper is going to be the tell tale. But so many industries are shattered that good buys are all over the place.

I have a solid 12 years before I would even think of retiring, money or not, I would get bored. But I think you need to feel out what your risk reward feeling is. The market is going to come back, as is inflation, and if not dealt with, so is another reccession in 2-3 years time. So day trade, trust your gut, and if your palm is sweating when you click, your buying too much.

I would earn back what you feel you wouldnt want to risk at all, and sock it away it money market funds. Use it to day trade. But we all found out the proffesionals dont know what they are doing half the time...
Sorry for the long post
Wow and thanks ! Its good to hear I am not the only one! Most of my friends are only day traders now also and trying to decide what to do with the losing Mutual funds. Those Schwab commercials kill me - like they ask what are you gonna do - just sit by? hey, Trust us! Bull! Like they all of a sudden have the answers? Its laughable!

Good luck and make sure your son doesn't get too cocky and bet the farm on a sure thing (like I sorta did years ago...)
Old 04-04-2009, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by bamaboy473 View Post
I took a beating the last two years by expecting that buying a stock after it lost another 10% was a good bet. Not. Then the first of the year I decided to stop looking at the market every day and just buy a stock paying good dividends...and I plunked a bunch into GE paying 6%. Lost 40% on that move within 3 months.
Last month I went all in and have gone back to day trading techs and pharmaceuticals. Up 60% so far.

To answer your question, there is no magic number like 14,000 that's a peak. If the market gets back to that (and we're all still alive), I'll be day trading like always...but will have a trailing stop on everything I buy.
Sounds like we're all on the same page here.

thanks
Old 04-04-2009, 01:37 PM
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Oh believe me, he is getting very small installments at a time. I kinda wish he was betting the farm, he has been running technical analysis on most of this stuff and is coming up scarily close. One funny one that he figured out was lean hog futures. 39 out of 39 years Lean Hog futures go up 15% april 13th (can you tell me why, the answer is too easy). On august 18th, lean hog futures drop 15% (can you tell me why, again, dont over think it). I plan on chucking a few grand (2-5k) in and see what happens.
Old 04-16-2009, 01:21 PM
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Is it the spring slaughter?
Old 04-17-2009, 09:13 AM
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My plan is to partially retire in about a year. I'll start SSI on the day I hit 62, if the rock star doesn't up the age before that happens.
I don't care anything about the DOW. I pick the individual stocks that seem to have an upside that looks good and put a few bucks into them. In the last few months F has more than doubled, GE is pushing it, and many of the others are on the way up. There are a couple of really cheap ones that seem to change by about 20 -30% every few weeks. Those are great for day trading. Just find some, find the pattern you are comfortable with, set some limits and run.
Mike
Old 04-17-2009, 09:32 AM
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I lost ALL faith in one of my advisors after he pushed hard to buy bank stocks back in February of 2008 because he though they were undervalued and had great upward potential. Good thing I told him NO and then started slowly taking money away from him.

I don't know what the best strategy is... maybe tax free municipal bonds if you don't want to worry about things and keep a little handy to day trade. Short term trading has been a good strategy for me for the past 12 months.
Old 04-17-2009, 09:32 AM
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got gold?
Old 04-17-2009, 02:58 PM
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for the lean hogs. BBQ season starts in the spring, causing futures to rocket because demand for meats goes up by around 15-20%. But some the late summer and as demand wains, farmers slaughter their stocks as they dont want to preserve them over the winter, which exastberates the glut of supply to begin with, hence the 15-20% fall. Futures are on the move now!

As for stocks, im buying right now, especially LVS C BAC and day trading about 10%/day FAS or FAZ. My son and I are making it back faster than I lost it (thank goodness)
Old 04-17-2009, 03:05 PM
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Originally Posted by beenie View Post
My plan is to partially retire in about a year. I'll start SSI on the day I hit 62, if the rock star doesn't up the age before that happens.
I don't care anything about the DOW. I pick the individual stocks that seem to have an upside that looks good and put a few bucks into them. In the last few months F has more than doubled, GE is pushing it, and many of the others are on the way up. There are a couple of really cheap ones that seem to change by about 20 -30% every few weeks. Those are great for day trading. Just find some, find the pattern you are comfortable with, set some limits and run.
Mike
Funny you mention that - I have only been following F and GE also - some small time success - still not confident enough to make any big commitment
Old 04-17-2009, 03:25 PM
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For swings in large cap stocks that'll make you smile , I like PFE, MSFT, EMC, CSCO, ORCL, and for small cap gamblers, ATI and MEE. 2% a day is normal nowdays and 1% without a lot of effort.

Since the latest EPA announcement about cars causing all global pollution and forcing congress to make stronger emissions laws...I see next week as another big decline in the market. godddam gubment is taking on way too much too quickly...
Old 04-17-2009, 03:35 PM
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Where did Fat Albert Gore put his money? Invest there.
Old 04-17-2009, 05:09 PM
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Pic good companies and do your home work the market is for the long term. People who go day to day are what is hurting the current positions. This type is not for the faint of heart. You have to be diversified now and into the furture as well as the past. Yes we all have are way to do things pros and cons just don't put all your eggs in one basket. As we get older are investments should change lean towards more cash and fixeed assets in are golden years. If you have been investing all your life you should knoe now how to handle your own money
Old 04-17-2009, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by ladyjane View Post
Pic good companies and do your home work the market is for the long term. People who go day to day are what is hurting the current positions.
Let me politely disagree with this statement for several reasons:
1. What companies are LongTerm anymore? Nothing is a 10 year plan.
2. Day to Day is what is HELPING the market because it maintains the volotility of the markets and translates current events into buying signals.

What do you, or others, think is being hurt by day traders? I'm sincerely interested in the reasoning behind your statement.
Old 04-17-2009, 05:59 PM
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C'mon bama you know day traders and short sellers are the devil.
Old 04-17-2009, 09:04 PM
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the market had a huge reversal 5 weeks ago.

ETFC was 69 cents
SIRI was 5 cents, is 50cents now, 10X
SWHC was 1.53 is now 6
PIR was 10 cents, is now 1.70, or 17X higher
RT was 85cents, over 7 now
RCL was 5.40, BAC, Citi (C), LVS, MGM
RGR (Rugger) from 4 to 11,
KKD,
WFC,
NFLX,
GS from 47 to 130 ,this is only a small sample,
man that was a huge reversal. Cammon the economy is improving, but not that good...
theres a bunch of stocks growing at a 20 percent clip every day...

Last edited by fidhhook54; 04-18-2009 at 07:21 PM.

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