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DOW was up over 8,000 today, could things . . .

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DOW was up over 8,000 today, could things . . .

Old 04-02-2009, 02:58 PM
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Default DOW was up over 8,000 today, could things . . .

. . . be getting better? Things swing from 100-500 points from day to day, but slowly, things got over 8,000 today. Good news outweighing the bad? Some earnings have been better than expected, jobless claims were up but from the stat I had read earlier, when March goes up, so does April.

Needless to say, my positions are in.
Old 04-02-2009, 03:01 PM
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I've always said, "you can't call the bottom" many have tried and all but the lucky have failed. Makes for some good internet discussion though.
Old 04-02-2009, 05:50 PM
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just bought a few hundred gm........
Old 04-02-2009, 10:33 PM
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shorted BAC at 7.89 today we will see its 7.10 in after hours employement rate shoudl be bad tomorrow
Old 04-03-2009, 03:13 AM
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I still say if oil will stay down or at least reasonable the economy will be fine but if oil/gas jumps back up we will be right back where we were.

The high fuel prices are what caused most of this crap IMHO
Old 04-03-2009, 03:48 AM
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I've been told that only a fool would try to predict the economy and markets, so here's my theory

I think the cause and rebound can be summed up very simply in two words. "Consumer Confidence". It all started last Summer when the news was soooo gloomy, that we simply stopped spending. This leads to layoffs, company closings, Yeah, Trickle Down..Dare I say..

It also happened the exact same way in 1999-2000... Hmmm, I don't know if that means anything. Except now, there are more news organizations, more people on the internet, therefor more places to hear more doom.

If it weren't for being bogged down in a war, this may have happened in Summer of 2003, but the war news seemed bad enough to take care of all that ill's us.

As we get dribbles of positive news, we get more confident, we start spending more money, and dare I say..Our money will "Trickle Down" again. As it always does and always will..with the caveat of our society remaining a capitalistic free market.. Not too sure about that now..

Could it be that there is more good news than we know of? If it all comes out too soon, there will not be enough time to implement all the programs it takes to help protect us from ourselves;?;?

But what do I know, I pour concrete for a living
Old 04-03-2009, 04:51 AM
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Originally Posted by tprice View Post
I still say if oil will stay down or at least reasonable the economy will be fine but if oil/gas jumps back up we will be right back where we were.

The high fuel prices are what caused most of this crap IMHO

This is what I'm afraid of, it seems like oil is just itchin' to go up. Demand is down, supply is up, yet oil went from $30 to $50;?
Old 04-03-2009, 06:09 AM
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I own a Recruiting Firm so my finger is on the job market. We are still hearing about lay offs and in most verticals there is still very little hiring going on. In my field unemployment is over 50%.

This is far worse than 2001. I was in business in 2001 and while the IT vertical was hit hard (.COM bust) and the Northeast job market was hit (9/11) it was nearly business as usual in many verticals and geographic areas. The stock market took a hit but there were still jobs out there. Today the job market is suffering across industry verticals and geographic areas. Even the traditionally stable healthcare vertical has been hit - although not nearly as bad as other verticals. There are some very talented and experienced people out there who never thought they'd find themselves out of work who are now unemployed. In my opinion how are we ever going to recover if we can't regrow the job market? More unemployed, more financial stress on state governments, more foreclosures, people not paying their credit card bills and car notes - how do we recover in that climate?

The stock market starting to recover is good news but we have to get people back to work and spending money to stimulate the economy. Unfortunately I find myself unimpressed with President Obama's job plan. The following is a blog post I wrote in January.

Will Barack Obama’s job creation plan work?

This will never be a political blog. I believe that personal political views and business do not mix. I will however say that I was not a supporter of President-elect Barack Obama. I do not agree with many of Barack Obama’s policies and do not believe that he has the experience to be President of the United States, especially given the challenges our country is facing such as the economy and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Since Franklin Roosevelt took office in 1932 no President-elect has taken office faced with so many crises.

When in November 2008 Barack Obama was elected the 45th President of the United States he earned our trust and support. My faith is in Mr. Obama to turn around our worsening economy and return our great nation to a state of stability, strength and pride.

Before we take a look at Barack Obama’s plan let’s take a look at the current state of the job market.

· According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics involuntary part time work continues to rise. These are American workers who require full time work to support their families but are forced to accept part time work. This is considered a leading indicator of labor market difficulty.

· In December 2008 the unemployment rate rose from 6.8% to 7.2% with the economy losing 524,000 jobs. December job losses were across every major industry sector.

· In the last 4 months of 2008 the economy lost 1.9 million jobs.

· There are currently 11.1 million unemployed and many more under-employed Americans.

Economists agree that inaction could spark double digit unemployment and a recession that will last for years. I agree with President-elect Obama that our nation needs immediate and dramatic action. We need to get people back to work and get our economy back on the right track.

This past weekend President-elect Obama announced his economic recovery plan. While announcing his plan Obama tells the nation that things will likely get worse before they get better. Obama says that his economic recovery plan will create or save an estimated 3 million to 4 million jobs. He says that 90% of jobs will be created in the private sector including alternative energy production, education, healthcare and infrastructure.

Unfortunately I find myself unimpressed. Obama has not developed a plan to bring America back to full employment (full employment is considered 4.8% unemployment). Obama says that his plan will likely “save or create” 3 to 4 million jobs”. There is a huge difference in “saving” or “creating” jobs that Obama did not address. Saving 3 to 4 million jobs means the difference between 11 million and 15 million Americans unemployed. Creating 3 to 4 million jobs means the difference between 7 million and 11 million Americans unemployed. It’s a play on words that did not go unnoticed.

Obama says “these will be the kind of jobs that just don’t put people to work in the short term but position our economy to lead the world in the long-term”. I find this difficult to comprehend since for the most part Obama is talking about low level blue collar jobs. Obama is talking about creating jobs without rebuilding business or making a significant leap towards economic recovery. It’s all well and good to repair and rebuild roads and bridges but what happens years from now when that work nears completion?

Obama is promising a $1,000 tax cut for 95% of working families in the U.S. Wouldn’t that money be better spent giving tax cuts to entrepreneurs and mid-market businesses to create jobs in the private sector? I am certainly not an economist but it seems to me that a tax cut for businesses for each new job they create would go much further to stimulate the economy than a $1,000 tax cut when 11 million Americans are unemployed and so many more are underemployed.

During his presidential run Obama said that he would “close corporate loopholes, stop providing tax cuts to corporations that are shipping jobs overseas, so that we’re giving tax breaks to companies that are investing here in the US.” Currently American companies can defer paying taxes on income earned abroad as long as that revenue is used overseas and is not unrepatriated income giving companies an incentive to ship jobs overseas. Since the late 90’s hundreds of thousands of high paying professional jobs have been shipped overseas. American companies need to given incentives to create jobs in the U.S. rather than shipping jobs overseas. Obama does not even mention outsourced jobs in his plan.

Obama is a supporter of labor unions and owes part of his political success to union backing. I am of the opinion that unions have heavily contributed to America’s difficulty to compete on a global level. Just take a look at the auto industry. American automakers are on the verge of bankruptcy and actually lose money for every vehicle they sell while foreign automakers with their non-unionized workforces make profits. It is time that the American labor movement comes to the table, makes concessions and does their part to help America once again compete in the global economy and create jobs. This appears to be an issue Obama refuses to touch.

Even Obama’s own economists acknowledged that their estimates could be wrong. Obama’s plan is "subject to significant margins of error" because of the assumptions that went into the economic models and because it is not known what may or may not pass Congress.
Old 04-03-2009, 06:33 AM
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On the upside, the Euro and Pound are down against the dollar, so I just saved a bundle on cashing in my green backs.
Old 04-03-2009, 07:11 AM
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I agree that all the terrible news, and the siren-calls to "stop spending money, and, SAVE" got through to the masses way back when, which was really only months ago. If, lets say, the nationwide unemployment rate is 10%, those other 90% still have to spend and spend they will, seems like it is happening now, at least to some extent.

"I've been told that only a fool would try to predict the economy and markets, so here's my theory" I know what you are saying here Mike, but another analogy would be like saying, "Why fill out those NCAA brackets or join a SuperBowl pool because no one can predict the outcome of a sporting event." It is done in these worldwide financial markets because it makes money, yes?, are all those gamblers fools?, well maybe, to some extent.

For all those people who took the advice and curbed spending, there has to be a time when they all say, enough is enough and need to spend and the downward spiral has to end or at least maybe slow it down or reverse it. Up and down, up and down, but for now, slowly going up. Interesting thing about the markets, unlike Pro Sports seasons, the game never ends, it keeps on going, and going and going . . .
Old 04-03-2009, 08:53 AM
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Originally Posted by thundra View Post
"I've been told that only a fool would try to predict the economy and markets, so here's my theory" I know what you are saying here Mike, but another analogy would be like saying, "Why fill out those NCAA brackets or join a SuperBowl pool because no one can predict the outcome of a sporting event." It is done in these worldwide financial markets because it makes money, yes?, are all those gamblers fools?, well maybe, to some extent.

.

I was speaking tongue in cheak.. This is the internet, what the hell, were supposed to speculate on everything from cheap oil, to bayliners, to the market and economy...
Old 04-03-2009, 09:07 AM
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Mike,

I could not agree more! And what do you know? I too own a recruiting firm (member of BRG) and have seen exactly what you have. I'll go so far as to add that if jobs are created they will not be high paying jobs but they will none the less skew the unemployment numbers to make things look better than they are. The real unemployment figure is closer to 16% if you factor in those who quit looking for a job and those who are under employed. Same with the jump in housing lately, problem is the jump pertains to low income housing and nothing above $175k.

Talk to any venture capitalist and he will tell you he's very scared because there is not exit strategy in sight. If there is no hope the dried up IPO markets will improve then it's not worth the risk to fund a company with $20-50mil of VC money only to see it acquired for pennies on the dollar.

This will be an interesting death spiral to pull out of and unfortunately many of my colleagues who have been doing this as long as I have (nearly 20 years) have already surrendered.

Tight lines and hope you make it through this one.
Old 04-03-2009, 09:42 AM
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Funny to find another member of the BRG here! Had I known there was a Boston based Recruiter on this board we could have connected much earlier. Last summer I was in Boston at least bi-weekly as I had several clients there. The last time I was there now was just before the holidays.

You obviouly recognized my name from the BRG. Would I know yours? Shoot me an e-mail if you'd like to connect offline mike.astringer@humancapitalconsultants.com.
Old 04-03-2009, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by FireFly View Post
Mike,

I could not agree more! And what do you know? I too own a recruiting firm (member of BRG) and have seen exactly what you have. I'll go so far as to add that if jobs are created they will not be high paying jobs but they will none the less skew the unemployment numbers to make things look better than they are. The real unemployment figure is closer to 16% if you factor in those who quit looking for a job and those who are under employed. Same with the jump in housing lately, problem is the jump pertains to low income housing and nothing above $175k.

Talk to any venture capitalist and he will tell you he's very scared because there is not exit strategy in sight. If there is no hope the dried up IPO markets will improve then it's not worth the risk to fund a company with $20-50mil of VC money only to see it acquired for pennies on the dollar.

This will be an interesting death spiral to pull out of and unfortunately many of my colleagues who have been doing this as long as I have (nearly 20 years) have already surrendered.

Tight lines and hope you make it through this one.
Many people do not realized that the numbers are already skewed for the reasons we've outlined - part time and underemployed individuals do not show up in the unemployment numbers and those who are not collecting benefits will not show up in the numbers.

I don't doubt many have surrendered. I am 16 years in the business, 8 of those years working for myself. I owned an IT Staff Aug firm in Las Vegas in he 90's and my Philadelphia based RPO firm today. If it were not for my wife who is an RN I may have had to surrender (although at this point I don't know what else I could do!). My business is down 75% from one year ago and I consider myself lucky that I've held on to the other 25%. As I said I was around in 2001 and thought that was the worse we'd ever experience. This makes 2001 seem like the good old days!
Old 04-03-2009, 09:57 AM
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I know what you mean Mike. Like the old saying about being able to predict the markets, "It will go up or it will go down.", right? I know I'm the one who always posts up these threads just to see what y'all think. I love to hear what you guys have to say about what has been going on, all the various perspectives are excellent and I learn a lot.

I have only been watching what has been going on since the end of October when the market first fell, but as a simple trader now, it helps to get a feel for what anyone thinks.
Old 04-03-2009, 10:36 AM
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In 2001 I was on the wrong side of a start up I'd helped start and we burned through $110 million!!! But it seems worse now for some reason, likely because its reaching across all verticals and not just tech.

I'll shoot you a pm with my contact info and linkedin link...

Joe
Old 04-03-2009, 08:23 PM
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Historically the market 'recovers' well ahead of the end of a recession, so it may well be that the market is stabalizing for awhile while at the same time the job market continues to become more constrained ("constrained" - boy oh boy, talk about trying to use an optimistic view !).

The stock market scares me somewhat less these days .... the job market scrares me much more with eash passing day
Old 04-03-2009, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Mike Boehler View Post
I've been told that only a fool would try to predict the economy and markets, so here's my theory

I think the cause and rebound can be summed up very simply in two words. "Consumer Confidence". It all started last Summer when the news was soooo gloomy, that we simply stopped spending. This leads to layoffs, company closings, Yeah, Trickle Down..Dare I say..

It also happened the exact same way in 1999-2000... Hmmm, I don't know if that means anything. Except now, there are more news organizations, more people on the internet, therefor more places to hear more doom.

If it weren't for being bogged down in a war, this may have happened in Summer of 2003, but the war news seemed bad enough to take care of all that ill's us.

As we get dribbles of positive news, we get more confident, we start spending more money, and dare I say..Our money will "Trickle Down" again. As it always does and always will..with the caveat of our society remaining a capitalistic free market.. Not too sure about that now..

Could it be that there is more good news than we know of? If it all comes out too soon, there will not be enough time to implement all the programs it takes to help protect us from ourselves;?;?

But what do I know, I pour concrete for a living

Funny , Funny. Trickle down. Really, you can still Quote trickle down. Never has , never will. Now that adults are in charge we will prosper like never before. Now, I'm not talking the one tenth of one percent. Just the rest of us.
Old 04-04-2009, 06:00 AM
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Originally Posted by ocean.playtime View Post
Funny , Funny. Trickle down. Really, you can still Quote trickle down. Never has , never will. Now that adults are in charge we will prosper like never before. Now, I'm not talking the one tenth of one percent. Just the rest of us.

Yeah, I was born to be a comedian

When you say "adults" do you mean Geitner and Pelosi? I gotta say, from a laymans perspective, I'm not feeling real good about those adults.

My business has reeped the benfits of trickle down for 20 years. so I guess I can say those words. Besides, I'm not running for office. If I were, I wouldn't use them in a million years.

So I guess I do feel old school and I also feel right
Old 04-04-2009, 06:12 AM
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Originally Posted by grouperkng View Post
shorted BAC at 7.89 today we will see its 7.10 in after hours employement rate shoudl be bad tomorrow
C'mon, I got them @3

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