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3/24/2009 is the worst yet to come?

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3/24/2009 is the worst yet to come?

Old 03-24-2009, 07:12 AM
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Default 3/24/2009 is the worst yet to come?

Nice bump in the stock market yesterday but all this talk about the government taking over and/or partnering with private industry has me worried long term. Are we out of the woods? We will flat-line for a while or is the worst yet to come?

Make your predictions here and tell us why.
Old 03-24-2009, 07:29 AM
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Worse is yet to come.
New government will always bring a small spike in the market, followed by a flat line. It is only the methods in which that government uses to create the small spike and flat line will dictate a slide or climb after that.
To me, creating a greater debt is not a long term solution in maintaining a super power status.....IMO it can only hurt.
Old 03-24-2009, 08:10 AM
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The worst is yet to come. We are a good 12 months away from any stabilization in the economy.
Old 03-24-2009, 08:10 AM
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Yesterday was a feeding frenzy of people who are way down overall and were trying to make something back. That was proven this morning by the sharp selloff early... lots of traders looking to take profits while they can, heeding the advice lately to not be greedy. We will not see any stability in the markets or the economy until banks start lending money again. Very few people in this country make enough money to support the lifestyle they were accustomed to without paying someone interest for it, which is obviously something that most people are willing to do, as long as they can borrow.
Think about it. Most people over the last 20 years did not use cash to "buy" things. Most used all their cash to pay for necessities like living expenses, mortgages, car payments, basically anything that you HAD to pay for with cash. Everything else was bought or paid for on credit. They either waited for an income bonus from work, or a tax return, etc., to pay off or at least pay down their high interest revolving credit annually. That very scenario is what drove the economy for years, people buying "things" on credit and banks making money off of the interest they were charging for it. Now everyone is terrified of debt since the banks and credit card companies are cutting people off left and right. There should be more outrage about that, screw the AIG bonuses, they don't affect me or my neighbor directly, but the near inability for either of us to borrow any amount of money on anything is disheartening.
For example. I currently find myself in a situation where I am between homes, renting a house, and looking to buy a lot and build a house since labor and materials are cheaper (combined) than they have been in 20 years. I have found a lot that I want that could be had for a very good deal, but I cannot find any lender that will do better than 65% and 5 years on a lot!!!! Actually, most that I have talked to were rude and actually made me feel as if they were disgusted with me for trying to borrow money on a lot, and spoke to me with contempt. This atmosphere today is complete BS, and can be turned around as quickly as it was brought to a screeching halt. Basically, the current environment is the result of a gross overreaction to what happened back in the fall. The good news is that we have an opportunity to "fix" the way things were done incorrectly over the last several years, if they would just do it. The credit scoring system is absolute BS and needs to be completely refurbished, but that is another thread. The government has its hands in all of this now, for the good or the bad. Even if interest rates get cut down to 1%, it means nothing if you can't borrow. The gov't needs to quit focussing on AIG and start FORCING banks to start lending again, period.
Old 03-24-2009, 09:26 AM
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850 on S&P 500 is a trendline high from November and January highs.
660 is the trendline low from November and March lows.
Old 03-24-2009, 07:36 PM
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We will be back in the dark ages before this is all done...Gov't bailouts should have never happened...Whose going to bail you out when you lose you your job to cheaper chinese labor and can't make the mortgage payment????
Old 03-25-2009, 08:32 AM
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I think the very worst is over. As has been said, the "official recesson" began in December of 2007. Between all the hundreds of thousands of layoffs, and every single company having looked at/cooked its numbers, there has to have been some "truth in reporting" these past few tumultous months. The surprises The Street has been hearing lately have been "good" surprises regarding earnings and various increases in this, that, and the other thing. While there have been so many unfortuante workers laid off, what about the millions that have kept their status quo?, and did NOT overextend themselves?, and have been saving and taking good advice. My wife went to the Wrentham Outlets a few weekends ago and there were lines just to get off the highway and lines to get in the stores, as if people have been cooped up enough in MA and their money/credit cards burning holes in their pockets. One miniscule example, but an example nonetheless regarding consumer spending having spiked up unexpectedly last month.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090325/...re/wall_street

People will need to, and will spend, the population is too great to think that they won't but this may not be the problem, just a small part of the overall solution.

Everything moves faster in this day and age. There have been many good signs of the beginning of a recovery and all the bad news may already be priced in. The weather is getting better, at least here in MA, and I read on MSN that spending on fishing supplies has increased country-wide as it is a cheap and excellent pastime, no need to tell us that here in THT but summer is coming and things should get better, the "Winter of Discontent" just may be over, for now.

There is tons of money, all manner of currency, sitting, waiting to be poured back in the market, pick a market, any market, whether it is to be invested or traded. The incredible opportunities to buy and hold are certainly out there. Heck, I took a 2000 share position in GE when it was down under $7 and I'm looking good for now as it hit $11 today, almost doubled my money, yee-haw! I see GE going up to $12-13 by the summer, easy. Things have to come around, there are just too many people with lots of money just waiting for some good signs and the bulls will run again.

Last edited by thundra; 03-25-2009 at 08:54 AM.
Old 03-25-2009, 10:55 AM
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Hyper-inflation is trying to get a foothold, will be up and running in due time as soon as the money printing presses slow down.

Yeah, the worst is yet to come, will be here soon, will be really bad.

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