Notices

Stocks below 7000

Old 03-02-2009, 08:15 AM
  #1  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Cullowhee,NC,USA
Posts: 1,189
Default Stocks below 7000

The Market does not seem to like the AIG news. Go figure. Lowest in 12 years.
oneill469 is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 08:27 AM
  #2  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Not in Texas
Posts: 10,213
Default

But AIG stock bumped up on the news of injection of $30-Billion, up about 16%.

Last edited by Eyeball; 03-02-2009 at 08:35 AM.
Eyeball is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 08:40 AM
  #3  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Central Florida
Posts: 8,245
Default

The only "slightly" positive issue is that the volume has been relatively low at these levels. It's a bit of a stretch, but the selling has not been widespread.
Sprockets is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 09:42 AM
  #4  
CMP
Admirals ClubCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: None of yer friggin' bidness, but since you asked nicely, S. NH, E. Orleans,Islamorada, Nashville
Posts: 10,928
Default

5500 is on the way-called it months ago and I wish like hell I was wrong...

CMP
CMP is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 09:48 AM
  #5  
Admirals ClubCaptains Club Member Admiral's Club Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 7,111
Default

I know nothing about stocks... but wasn't 10.000 the debacle point??? how low could it go, and what happen when it gets there...

Sorry for the questions but I would like to understand a little bit better...
emudryj is online now  
Old 03-02-2009, 09:48 AM
  #6  
SIM
Senior MemberVendorCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Washington Island,Wi USA
Posts: 13,904
Default

If you guys had 10k that you were to invest right now, besides leaving it under a pillow, what/where would put it? Long term.

Serious question.

Andy
SIM is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 10:31 AM
  #7  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Central Florida
Posts: 8,245
Default

I'd keep it in an insured account for now. I don't think we've seen the worst of this yet. I know this isn't the answer you were looking for, but unless you are willing to take a risk I'd sit out for now. One could make a lot of arguments for buying at these low levels, it just comes with a lot of risk.
Sprockets is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 12:28 PM
  #8  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Long Island Sound
Posts: 2,298
Default

Originally Posted by Sprockets View Post
I'd keep it in an insured account for now. I don't think we've seen the worst of this yet. I know this isn't the answer you were looking for, but unless you are willing to take a risk I'd sit out for now. One could make a lot of arguments for buying at these low levels, it just comes with a lot of risk.
No, i disagree. The "comes with a lot of risk" was when the Dow was at 14,000 and everybody was saying to buy stocks.

I would go with a mutual fund, and dollar cost average. Start putting in a certain amount every month or quarter spread out over the next 2 years. I am sure there are strong companies that have been beaten down along with the bad ones, but I am not going to go into that here.
Take a look at some low cost funds that are moderate growth or value oriented. And be prepared to accept that we may or may not be at the bottom. And everything isn't going to shoot up in 4 months.
Soundbounder is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 12:41 PM
  #9  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Not in Texas
Posts: 10,213
Default

Originally Posted by Sprockets View Post
I'd keep it in an insured account for now.
I think I know what you're thinking, but wondering where the end is to the money the fed govt can borrow or print. I'm ok with FDCI, for now, in the short tern -- but not in the long haul. And T-bills are a bubble that needs to be 'corrected'.

Precious metals mining stocks, Japanese govt bonds, real estate in US and abroad. Any cash is going to lose its value when the hyper-inflation takes hold. And we need to being hoping and praying for hyper-inflation because the alternative is the the US dollar totally collapses.
Eyeball is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 12:56 PM
  #10  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: illinois
Posts: 333
Default

I'm not a fan of dollar cost averaging. If it's a bargain then why wait? If it's not, why put money in? If you think it's going to be a good deal in a few months then wait. The only reason for dollar cost averaging is to keep the brokers pockets lined. The same goes for staying in a declining market, they tell you it's a good time to buy, and it is, a good time for them to have you buy. Better to do your homework, pick the stocks you think are worthwhile to gamble on, and wait for the conditions you think stand a good chance. And remember, it is gambling, not investing.
mattie is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 01:16 PM
  #11  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: On the beach
Posts: 2,444
Default

"Change you can count on."

Imagine all of the retired people who have lost half of their 401 K.

We're not going to bottom until we're around 5K. I think CMP is correct.

Then I'm willing to bet it's going to take many years before we get back up to 14K.

Hang on folks as obama stated it's going to get worse before it gets better. Man was that an understatement.
glassman is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 01:44 PM
  #12  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Central Florida
Posts: 8,245
Default

This is not meant to offend Andy in any way, but when someone says "where would you invest $10,000, I have to assume this would be a material amount. The real question that needs to be answered is whether this is $10k of new money in a $500k portfolio, $1 million portfolio or a $50k portfolio. You don't hear people say "I've got $2 million sitting in cash - what should I invest in long term?

I also don't buy into the total doomsday theories, although the economy and financial markets are not exactly cheery either. Long term can also mean different things to different people. What may look good now might not in 5 or 10 years, so it is difficult to make any recommendations.

Anything you invest in has risks. As Eyeball stated above, long term Treasuries may be safe from a credit quality standpoint, but if rates go up which is likely, the Treasuries you buy today will be worth less in the future.

Here is my take - When/if the economy improves, the next up cycle will last several years. In my opinion, unless you are a trader or really comfortable jumping in here, you can afford to miss the very beginning of the next cycle. You may not participate in the entire stock market turnaround, but you will not be taking the same level of risk. You could set a goal of not investing until there are 2 quarters of positive GDP growth or the unemployment rate falls. It may be a while before this happens. I know you will miss out on the first stages of a rally, but a truly improving economy should propel the stock market for several years giving you time to participate.
Sprockets is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 02:05 PM
  #13  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Not in Texas
Posts: 10,213
Default

Originally Posted by Sprockets View Post
...When/if the economy improves, the next up cycle will last several years.
I think so, too. But be careful, watch for the dead cat bounce. I think there was three bounces before hitting the bottom in the last great depression.
Eyeball is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 02:13 PM
  #14  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: North East
Posts: 5,938
Default

Don't worry the messiah will save us all.
Andy I would move it to a credit union not connected in any way to the mortgage industry. They have private insurance like FDIC.

Me? I threw more money at the market today at 3:43pm. Ytd has been stellar.
FireFly is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 02:33 PM
  #15  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Central Florida
Posts: 8,245
Default

Originally Posted by FireFly View Post
Ytd has been stellar.

Unless you've been short!
Sprockets is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 05:48 PM
  #16  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: south mississippi
Posts: 715
Default

Any of you guys ever sell short? I shorted Exxon this morning @ 66.10. It closed at 64.91. Some oil service companies I watch are up big in after hours trading, so I may not have made a good move.
I remember talking to an owner of a small town private bank last fall & he was telling me what a good buy GE would be after it fell under 20.00. It was about 19.00 at the time. This is a man I have a lot of respect for as a businessman & a person. I was thinking to myself the whole time he was talking that I wouldn't touch it with a 10 ft. pole. It closed today at 7.60.
I remember last year all the talk of Warren Buffet investing heavily in GS GE China ect. This market has kicked a lot of smart people upside the head. I'm no guru myself, down big in a few positions. I don't see anything positive on the horizon at this time. Good Luck in this market.
Bayslayer is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 07:02 PM
  #17  
tka
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location:
Posts: 734
Default

I had been comfortable shorting the market until the end of last week.I think you have to be careful now because we are in a range that I believe could produce a short term bounce.The trend is still down but the market is oversold at this point in my opinion.I normally don't hold any positions overnight because you never know whether the govt will announce a sticksave or something blows up overseas.I wouldn't be surprised to see GE around 5.00 in the future.
tka is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 07:09 PM
  #18  
Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 34
Default

What to invest 10k in now? Thats easy.

take 5000 and buy small denomination gold/silver coins then take the rest and buy a few quality hand guns, then stock up on everything that has barter value...Bullets, batteries, propane, flashlights, storable food, etc. Because if and when the shit hits the fan and the dollar isn't worth the paper its printed on you can at least have items which have a tangible use for yourself or for others willing to trade other goods you may need.

Man, I can't beleive I just wrote that but its a sign of the times. Happend in Japan, then more recently in Argentina.
longbow5920 is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 07:21 PM
  #19  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: NJ
Posts: 807
Default

If I had the spare change and wanted to get in for the long term (5 years), I would be buying in good companies like GE, Coke, Pepsi, Dupont, Cat, etc. even if they go down more eventually they are going to come back big. This is America, we will eventually come out of this, and still be the greatest nation on earth. Buffet made a mistake of buying too early, but eventually those stocks are going to come back and he likes to get in for the long haul 5-10 years. He will not make as much money as some one who bought at the bottem or near it, but he will make money.

I think that commodities maybe something to look at, with the government printing all this money, and not raising interest rates, inflation is bound to happen.
Disclaimer: I am not a wallstreet guy, this is just my opinion and thoughts
35donzi is offline  
Old 03-02-2009, 07:40 PM
  #20  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North Carolina
Posts: 1,603
Default

Be careful shorting at these historic levels. This from Schwab's Market Commentary,
"The market is unlikely to make a short term bottom until fear
reaches an extreme or the government gives it a shot in the arm by coming out
with a bold move such as reinstating the up tick rule or suspending
mark-to-market."

Either of the government moves could produce a 4-5% rally which would have everyone covering their short positions causing stocks to go up even more.
tarnold is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread