Notices

Stock Market Turn Around?

Old 02-04-2009, 06:10 PM
  #1  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Murfreesboro,AR
Posts: 925
Default Stock Market Turn Around?

I am eligible to retire in two years, and had fully planned to do so - two years ago - not so sure today. A year ago last October, I moved from stocks to Annuities guaranteeing 5%, but still had some money in some mutual funds that have taken a beating, but I have not suffered as much a loss as some folks - maybe a little over 10% altogether. This downturn came at a time when I have very little time to recover. Even though I have not lost that much money, I have lost interest I was counting on. At any rate, I am really relying on the stock market to recover somewhat, or at least start showing some life before I even think about buying another boat. All of the current earnings reports are compared to the previous quarter, or the past year. I am hoping that the past year contained most of the losses. A lot of companies have downsized and tightened their belts. I feel that as we move away from the past year, earnings reports may begin to look better, comparitively speaking - that is, when earnings reports for the first quarter of this calendar year are compared to the last quarter of 2008, they might not look so bad - when earnings reports from the fourth qtr of 2009 are compared to 2008, they may actually look good. Earnings reports in most of the economy ravaged year of 2008 were compared to earnings in the boom year of 2007. Do you guys think the stock market might turn positive when they start comparing lackluster or flat performance of 2009, with deteriorating performance of 2008, instead of the boom years of 2007?
cudacat is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 06:19 PM
  #2  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Out west
Posts: 3,293
Default RE: Stock Market Turn Around?

No stock market turnaround expected for some time. If there's a rise it will be a dead cat bounce.
dssmith is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 06:29 PM
  #3  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 6,194
Default RE: Stock Market Turn Around?

cudacat - 2/4/2009 9:10 PM

I am eligible to retire in two years, and had fully planned to do so - two years ago - not so sure today. A year ago last October, I moved from stocks to Annuities guaranteeing 5%, but still had some money in some mutual funds that have taken a beating, but I have not suffered as much a loss as some folks - maybe a little over 10% altogether. This downturn came at a time when I have very little time to recover. Even though I have not lost that much money, I have lost interest I was counting on. At any rate, I am really relying on the stock market to recover somewhat, or at least start showing some life before I even think about buying another boat. All of the current earnings reports are compared to the previous quarter, or the past year. I am hoping that the past year contained most of the losses. A lot of companies have downsized and tightened their belts. I feel that as we move away from the past year, earnings reports may begin to look better, comparitively speaking - that is, when earnings reports for the first quarter of this calendar year are compared to the last quarter of 2008, they might not look so bad - when earnings reports from the fourth qtr of 2009 are compared to 2008, they may actually look good. Earnings reports in most of the economy ravaged year of 2008 were compared to earnings in the boom year of 2007. Do you guys think the stock market might turn positive when they start comparing lackluster or flat performance of 2009, with deteriorating performance of 2008, instead of the boom years of 2007?
The market is smarter than that. The market will not only look to performance QvQ, but also factor in the overall industry and any growth catalysts looking forward. For example, lets take Lumber Liquidators (LL). Looking at earnings is only a small piece of the pie. The street will look at the housing business, both new starts and renovation data. The street will look at same store sales growth, new stores completed, and committed new stores going forward. The street is also heavily favoring balance sheet analysis in this market, with a sharp focus on debt majorities and minimum commitments going forward. Liquidity is key in these times as well as crisp working capital management.

As Q4 data comes in, we should see a run of bad news. My guess is that company's rammed and jammed as many write downs and write offs as possible into calendar Q4'08 because the economy is the perfect scape goat.

I could go on, but in my opinion, you will not see a market rebound until late Q1, early Q2 2010.
RI Builder is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 07:15 PM
  #4  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Cullowhee,NC,USA
Posts: 1,189
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

I think your time horizon is too short to think about stocks. JMHO.
oneill469 is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 07:23 PM
  #5  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Not in Texas
Posts: 10,213
Default RE: Stock Market Turn Around?

RI Builder - 2/5/2009 10:29 AM

I could go on, but in my opinion, you will not see a market rebound until late Q1, early Q2 2010.
I think that is overly optimistic. Doesn't hurt to hope but won't plan any investments on it.

I'm thinking the turnaround, when it comes, will come from the bottom up; e.g. raw materials followed by manf, followed by retail... The problem is global and right now the globe is shut down/shutting down.

Eyeball is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 07:25 PM
  #6  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Clearwater, FL
Posts: 529
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

The market will recover - in time. How long will it be before you need to tap into the money you have invested in stocks ? Could your annuity carry your fixed and necessary expenses ? If yes then you can probably still retire but you may have to give up some luxuries. It really depends on priorities. If you were looking to retire so you could do alot more fishing / boating then wait. If you were looking to retire so that you could stop "reporting to the man" and would be happy on whatever budget your annuities could afford you you might be able to go for it !
LittleMrs is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 07:26 PM
  #7  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Murfreesboro,AR
Posts: 925
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

That is what concerns me is the short time horizon - I still have some money in some stock based mutual funds, and can't really decide if I need to leave it there or pull it and invest in something making one or two percent for the next couple of years. What would you guys do if you had two or three years until retirement with $200K in stock based mutual funds (spending it on fishing, hunting, beer and women does not count - I am already doing that). My two houses, farms, 1 car, etc are paid off - I owe on one car - no other debt.
cudacat is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 07:58 PM
  #8  
CMP
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: None of yer friggin' bidness, but since you asked nicely, S. NH, E. Orleans,Islamorada, Nashville
Posts: 10,900
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

The last 7 months and the next 12 are a day traders wet dream. I've made more as a half-assed, occasional day trader in the last 7 months than I have in "normal" stock transactions in the last 3 years. In the short term, the wild, seemingly (to the uninitiated and to those who refuse to research such things) random market swings will continue. 6-8 months is my time estimate and, frankly, this is all you have to make as mush hay as you can.

Cuda, I feel for you man, but you have some time. Sit tight, otherwise, you're locking in losses that you shouldn't even consider...

CMP

CMP
CMP is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 09:31 PM
  #9  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: orlando madbeach, fl
Posts: 8,537
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

Your thinking is a bit fogged by the bad economic news (rightfully so). Now and in the next year or so you will be ale to buy that dream boat for a fraction of what it's market value was even a year ago. 50%- 80% off is not unheard of now, imagine a few more months of doom and gloom.

Cut back on the uneeded things in your life, get rid of the credit card debt and run lean. But don't count the boat out that you have been dreaming of and working your life for. You have reached the time in your life to live it like YOU want to.

The search for a new boat is half the fun start now and enjoy life TODAY and don't worry about Q1 of 2010!
signmansez is offline  
Old 02-04-2009, 09:40 PM
  #10  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Not in Texas
Posts: 10,213
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

signmansez - 2/5/2009 1:31 PM

Your thinking is a bit fogged by the bad economic news (rightfully so). Now and in the next year or so you will be ale to buy that dream boat for a fraction of what it's market value was even a year ago. 50%- 80% off is not unheard of now, imagine a few more months of doom and gloom.

Cut back on the unneeded things in your life, get rid of the credit card debt and run lean. But don't count the boat out that you have been dreaming of and working your life for. You have reached the time in your life to live it like YOU want to.

The search for a new boat is half the fun start now and enjoy life TODAY and don't worry about Q1 of 2010!
I 100% agree with you -- except for that last part where you say looking for a new boat 1/2 of the fun.

Eyeball is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 12:46 AM
  #11  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Sharon Springs, NY
Posts: 4,515
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

Hmmm, could be Q1 '10, maybe Q2 '09, Or possibly Q3 2020!! I would suggest that if a bunch of clowns like us on a boating message board could predict the stock market or the economic times of right now, we would all be cashing in on tomorrow's horse racing..

I heard predictions of where we are now, by some less than valuable sources, yep they were right, but they predict this mess every quarter since 1982. Had to be right at some time! The only guy who got this right that I have contact with also predicts when the steelhead are going to hit based on the strawberry's ripening on the vine and the Coho's are prime when a finch lands on your downrigger.

He's got no power, telephone, internet...etc... Yep, he was right but I really can't tell you how many times he is wrong.

Predictions??? I'll wait until the horse wins, then I'll predict the race..
Mike Boehler is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 05:01 AM
  #12  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 6,194
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

CMP - 2/4/2009 10:58 PM

The last 7 months and the next 12 are a day traders wet dream. I've made more as a half-assed, occasional day trader in the last 7 months than I have in "normal" stock transactions in the last 3 years. In the short term, the wild, seemingly (to the uninitiated and to those who refuse to research such things) random market swings will continue. 6-8 months is my time estimate and, frankly, this is all you have to make as mush hay as you can.

Cuda, I feel for you man, but you have some time. Sit tight, otherwise, you're locking in losses that you shouldn't even consider...

CMP

CMP
I actually love the volatility in these markets right now for that very reason.
RI Builder is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 05:03 AM
  #13  
Senior MemberCaptains Club MemberPLEDGER
 
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 6,194
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

cudacat - 2/4/2009 10:26 PM

That is what concerns me is the short time horizon - I still have some money in some stock based mutual funds, and can't really decide if I need to leave it there or pull it and invest in something making one or two percent for the next couple of years. What would you guys do if you had two or three years until retirement with $200K in stock based mutual funds (spending it on fishing, hunting, beer and women does not count - I am already doing that). My two houses, farms, 1 car, etc are paid off - I owe on one car - no other debt.
Can not really answer that without knowing the balance of your overall investment portfolio. That 200K represents what % of your investment portfolio?
RI Builder is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 05:05 AM
  #14  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Long Island Sound, CT
Posts: 24,448
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

What sector is going to lead?
fichtion is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 06:29 AM
  #15  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Central Florida
Posts: 8,216
Default RE: Stock Market Turn Around?

cudacat - 2/4/2009 9:10 PM

I am eligible to retire in two years, and had fully planned to do so - two years ago - not so sure today. A year ago last October, I moved from stocks to Annuities guaranteeing 5%, but still had some money in some mutual funds that have taken a beating, but I have not suffered as much a loss as some folks - maybe a little over 10% altogether. This downturn came at a time when I have very little time to recover. Even though I have not lost that much money, I have lost interest I was counting on. At any rate, I am really relying on the stock market to recover somewhat, or at least start showing some life before I even think about buying another boat. All of the current earnings reports are compared to the previous quarter, or the past year. I am hoping that the past year contained most of the losses. A lot of companies have downsized and tightened their belts. I feel that as we move away from the past year, earnings reports may begin to look better, comparitively speaking - that is, when earnings reports for the first quarter of this calendar year are compared to the last quarter of 2008, they might not look so bad - when earnings reports from the fourth qtr of 2009 are compared to 2008, they may actually look good. Earnings reports in most of the economy ravaged year of 2008 were compared to earnings in the boom year of 2007. Do you guys think the stock market might turn positive when they start comparing lackluster or flat performance of 2009, with deteriorating performance of 2008, instead of the boom years of 2007?
Based on the issues you have, it might make sense to discuss your situation with a fee-only investment advisor. You mentioned a 5% guaranteed annuity, but you didn't mention what loopholes you may have to jump through to get that return. I am always concerned when a product guarantees a percentage return that is above the then current market rates for other guaranteed products. There is always a catch and it is important that you understand exactly how the product works.

Regarding your time horizon, you should not concentrate on having 2 years to retire. Your time horizon should be based on your life expectency. As someone else mentioned above, the proper advice will take into account many issues including the total value of your assets, cash flow needs, risk tolerance, health issues you might have, age of your spouse, etc.

No one can predict how the market will do in the future. There have been bad economic times in the past, catastrophic events and irrational fears. While the situation seems bleak right now, is it much different from the S&L crisis? The Resolution Trust Corporation was formed in 1989 to close hundreds of insolvent S&L's. To put things into perspective, on the day the RTC was created (8/9/1989), the S&P 500 was at 346.94. On 2/4/2009, it closed at 832.23. That represents a gain of just under 140%. While 20 years is a long time, do you expect to live another 20 years? To add even greater long term perspective, some here remember the gas crisis back in the early 1970's. I picked a random date of 12/31/1973, and the S&P 500 closed at 97.55. These are the type of issues that are important in planning long term.

Given all this data, you have to make the decision as to how important this historical information is to your planning. Different people will interpret it differently. I could go on and on but not that I still would not predict what might happen in the future, but I guess we all lived thorugh the Cuban Missle Crisis too.
Sprockets is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 06:41 AM
  #16  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Murfreesboro,AR
Posts: 925
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

That $200K is a little less than 20 percent of my investments. I feel alright about the rest of my investments, but I am wondering if the only way to get back any of the losses on the mutual funds is to leave it there and catch the rise in the stock market when it occurs, or put it in something making 2 or 3 percent and be satisfied. This is money I do not want to lock all of it up in an annuity or land, or something else that is not very liquid. I consider this my reserve money that I can get to fairly quick if I need some cash and don't want to pay a penalty or interest. Everything is paid for (except the one car) with no credit card debt, one kid out of college and another has 1 yr to go, so I don't really have anything to pay off to save the interest. I probably will buy another piece of timberland in the near term as a future investment and may use some of the money for the purchase. I am one of those "low life" federal emplyees everyone bashes, so I will have a decent retirement income from that work, and I own my own small business that pays for my fishing, hunting, and land purchases. I was planning on retiring at the end of 2010, but now I am thinking 2012. If my business holds in there, I might be able to beat the 2012 date. I guess my question is leave the $200K in mutual funds or put it in something safe and forget about the potential for larger returns (or losses).
cudacat is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 07:13 AM
  #17  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location:
Posts: 545
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

I'm not a financial expert but it sounds like you're in good shape. The market will eventually rebound so if you want retire.

I wouldn't though ! lol My intentions when I get old are to keep working and keep busy. My current boss and my good friends boss (father) are both in their early 80's and they still come to work everyday...albeit they arive at 10 in stead of 0830 or 9, their lunch break includes a nap and they leave by 4, but nonetheless they keep busy. I kinda admire that.

Plus if you want a new boat...get it, nows the time. As someone else said before it might be a better use of your money (I dare not say investment) to buy a boat now at great price as opposed to buying one later down the road when they eventually increase in price/deals no longer around.
liwreckfisherman is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 07:23 AM
  #18  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Murfreesboro,AR
Posts: 925
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

My plan is not to retire and lay around. I still will run my own business, and I have a couple of pieces of property where I plant foodplots, spray brush, trap the beavers, stock the feeders, move the deer stands, thin out the hogs, plant trees, etc. Hopefully, I will still have time to fish!
cudacat is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 07:59 AM
  #19  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: North East
Posts: 5,938
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

At your age (no offense) I would not be investing in the stock market through mutual funds or stocks. What I would do is load up on the annuities or other guaranteed avenues and take $5k or $10k and play around with it in the market. Day trade with that money and build the kitty so you have money to play with if you do well. Just my strategy - not a financial advisor but I always produce better returns than the guys who do it for a living.
FireFly is offline  
Old 02-05-2009, 08:57 AM
  #20  
Senior MemberCaptains Club Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: sebastian FL
Posts: 2,039
Default Re: Stock Market Turn Around?

One overlooked fact is that throughout 09 many companies will have long term debt come due that they will be unable to refinance. Many companies will go Ch 7 or 11 due to this which will prolong the market downturn. I still think we will see mid to low 6000 on the DOW. I am staying 70% in cash and short term treasuries and nibbling at tips. Also playing the volatility with no more than 5% of my portfolio.
My Turn is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread