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Old 11-11-2007, 05:46 AM
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Default Stock Market

It seems that when the market is up there are alot of opinions on what to buy and where it's going, but when it's not doing so good market threads seem to be quiet. With the market setting new records this year it's got to come down some, as you know the past few days it took a good hit. What do you guys think it will do from here? With the economy slowing and the fed finally admitting it could be a problem do you think it will continue to drop, hold in the area it's at or bounce back? OR... Is the current drop the BIG money guys taking a nice profit and trying to scare the little guy into selling so they can buy low again? Opinions please?
I recently spoke to my uncle(went through the depression and WWII vet) and his opinion is that the cycle is coming aroud again, hold every penny you can. I personally agree with him and think we are in for some really tough times ahead.
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:54 AM
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My father in law was also one of those always warning of another comming depression - still waiting

Bernake's comments this weekend have to have everyone a bit scared - but hey tough times are when the best (buying) opportunities present themselves!!!
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Old 11-11-2007, 09:30 AM
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Buy, buy, buy, but only if you understand the risk and are willing to bet the outcome of that risk will be hugely profitable.

For example: Apple stock is down to a place where those who were passed by before can buy into the profit side of the fastest growing, most profitable company ever.

I personally am buying more Apple stock the lower it goes and if it goes lower (before again resuming the climb higher) I will buy more and more stock.

Let's face it. Apple is no less a fantastically growing company because of the whole market falling.

As to the "big money guys" manipulating the market or Apple stock in particular, this just cannot happen in today's market, and if somehow the "big money guys did manipulate Apple stock, it would play right into my (and other smart investors) hands by giving me/us the opportunity to load up and profit from the stock's eventual rise again.

I'm convinced Apple is a great and growing company regardless of the stock price, including the effects of a recession (a mild one I expect). This Xmas season will see huge profits for Apple and the stock will rise to new highs because of those huge sales.

To answer the comment that investors only post when the stock is up, we're too busy hustling money to buy more stock at the lower price to spend time posting, (he says with a grin). Actually the truth is that profitable times are happy times and more fun to share our success, sort of a "I told ya so" success.

Apple is not the only stock the above applies to. There are a lot of great companies and profit opportunities for investors in todays stock market.



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Old 11-11-2007, 04:35 PM
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Myself,I think the market will drop below 13000 and even may see 12000.The last two months was a very easy months to make money in day trading.For longs start looking at some of the banks,but do your own research.They will tank somemore,but they will always come back.Tech stocks,I got burnt in 1999-2000 by a so called pro and I don't play them short or long.

Small oil companies are doing good.Take a look a TXCO and look for a drop in the $9.50-$10.00 range to buy.Do your own research.Of course gold companies are making it good.My pick is GG,but it is a little high now,look for a pull back in oil/gold prices.If the feds drop rates again,gold will hit close to $1,000 an oz and the dollar will fall even lower which will tell the world that the USA is in a big "R">If and when that happens,I think the dow will drop below 9500 which will be within the next year!So,to sum it up,I wouldn't hold anything long unless the stock pays div's!
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:19 PM
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CSCO didn't help the tech sector when it mentioned on it's earning conference call that they are seeing a trickle down effect of the consumer spending/housing market/ etc. The momentum stocks got hit but the fundamentals haven't changed yet. I still like GOOG, AAPL and RIMM. Hoping BIDU comes back for my own portfolio!

--JK
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:54 PM
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I gotta go with MO and MCD and KO for my recession stocks. Maybe PetroChina. APPL is a buy-more for me.
Tech fundamentals haven't changed. I am going to stay with it. I am following EK. It may be ready to get off the ground soon.
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Old 11-11-2007, 05:59 PM
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Seems like 1999 to me in many ways. AAPL also reminds me of AOL in 99 and 2000 along with CSCO. I am usually very optimistic about the market, but I cashed out of BRK, BAC and ABFS in which I missed some large gains. BRK worked out very well over the last few years, but I am not going to get too greedy.

I may be very wrong but I am going to sit on a larger cash postion until I see a fundamental reason to do otherwise. Still have a lot in stocks, but some more cash at this point may not be so bad.
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Old 11-11-2007, 06:44 PM
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I do think a big difference when comparing to the tech bubble of the 2000's to now is the companies mentioned above, like RIMM, AAPL, GOOG and CSCO (and a handful of others) have fantastic products, are best of breed and continue to meet and beat the estimates and have solid balance sheets. Back in the tech 1999 days companys where trading crazy when they had poor balance sheets, no plans for the future and sometimes no products. I don't think GOOG or AAPL is going anywhere and will still grow. RIMM and the blackberry seem to be in every professionals hand and is looking to expand into the china market. ISRG, although not tech, performs surgery via a less invasive way and ultimately provides less hospital time for recovery. What I am saying is I believe in these companies and although the market and especially the tech sector got sold off last week I do believe in these companies for the long term. Are we at the bottom yet? I doubt it.

--JK
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Old 11-11-2007, 08:38 PM
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timebandit - 11/11/2007 5:54 PM

I gotta go with MO and MCD and KO for my recession stocks. Maybe PetroChina. APPL is a buy-more for me.
Tech fundamentals haven't changed. I am going to stay with it. I am following EK. It may be ready to get off the ground soon.
Petrochina is down 5.7% as I write this.All far east markets are down 2% or more.
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Old 11-12-2007, 03:31 AM
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The commercial paper market is still locked up after 12 weeks, the big banks and the small banks are in big trouble with assets mark to model that will soon be required to be mark to market. with 21 trillion dollars of these special performance contacts floating around that are related to credit default swaps.

I think there is big trouble brewing
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Old 11-12-2007, 05:17 AM
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nat - 11/12/2007 7:31 PM

The commercial paper market is still locked up after 12 weeks, the big banks and the small banks are in big trouble with assets mark to model that will soon be required to be mark to market. with 21 trillion dollars of these special performance contacts floating around that are related to credit default swaps.

I think there is big trouble brewing

That there is what we would call an understatement.

I don't think 'now' is the time to be making any major purchases. I suggest taking a seat and putting on your seatbelt.






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Old 11-12-2007, 02:39 PM
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Anyone that uses an online broker may want to check the financial news today and then ask yourself this simple question?

if my online brokerage intity gets in financial trouble from thier banking business, Is my account safe?


Take a real hard look at this.....real hard...


http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...26847720071112
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Old 11-12-2007, 03:06 PM
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Very hard to stomach. I bought more of the positions I like today. I figure if they already reported this quarter, and there is no new news, then take advantage within reason.
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Old 11-12-2007, 03:19 PM
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etfc
had some nice balances sheets a couple months ago.

they been beating the quartes for almost 3 year,

I got suck in on that one.

thankfull I had made nice profits on it that offset the loss.

So far
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Old 11-12-2007, 04:01 PM
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nat - 11/13/2007 6:39 AM

Take a real hard look at this.....real hard...


http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...26847720071112





If you read international financial news reporting you get a clear picture that western banks, in general, are in trouble and already starting to implode.




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Old 11-12-2007, 04:23 PM
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Its not just western but world banks too.Now didn't I stated that the Dow was going down below 13000?next stop will be around 12700 and then more drop after that.Lord help tech stocks.If you didn't sell by now to take any profit,you better do it in the next day or two.
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Old 11-12-2007, 04:45 PM
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Wudda been nice to sell high... but I have two charts for you. First the VIX. This is the CBOE volatility index, and it basically is an indicator of complacency and fear. When the index is low (ie 10), it means everyone is happy, there is little fear, and everyone is pretty bullish (contraindicator to someone like me). When it is high, the market is under pressure. There is fear. Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven. It is a good predictor of short term bottoms. It is high now. Just as it was in August, when that low was put in in the market, and we had a nice rally off of that. I think we are retesting now, and people should think about buying here and not selling.



My next chart tells a similar story: It measures the number of issues in the s&p that are oversold. When this number is above 50%, it also is a good predictor of a short term bottom. We are almost there. Notice how the market rallies when we reach that point, pretty consistently.


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Old 11-12-2007, 07:47 PM
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But those charts does not put the amount of subprime lost dollars which still nobody knows how much it will be in the future.Banks are tighting up credit big time.More and more people are getting wise as thats all what the news people are reporting.And then throw in $3.50 fuel oil prices,a gallon of milk up .50 in the last three weeks and on top of that gas prices jumped .55 in two weeks.Now throw in Christmas and alot of people had used there credit cards in the pass that will not be able this year,so they will have to use what little extra cash they have on hand.But wait,they don't have it becouse they need it to pay for extra cost of food and fuel.That will slow down everything and the BIG "R" will be on us.

I stand by my thoughts that we will hit the Dow down to 12000 or even lower by mid Jan,2008.Yes,there will be a few days it will go up(sucker betting),but nothing to hold it up and stocks reports will show a faster slow down then what they are expecting now.

If I stand right,I will save myself anywere from 10 to as much as 20% and if I am wrong,I loose only a 5 to 10 % profit for the next three months.So I am betting and giving the markets a 2/3 chance to crash.

Forgot,let the feds drop rates and the dollar will drop even lower which will push oil and gold prices higher.Then if the feds DON"T drop rates,the markets will see that as a point of the big "R" coming into play.Its a loose- loose play.
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Old 11-13-2007, 03:10 AM
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You may be right or wrong. Charts never take into account fundamentals. They don't take into account possible positive outcomes in earnings either.

The market is nothing more or less than a collection of rational and irrational participants. It therfore is most similar to a mob, and mob psychology is probably the best way to understand how it works. That is why charts often work, and why history most often repeats itself.
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Old 11-13-2007, 03:19 AM
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Yep. The housing industry is only about 1% of GDP, but I wonder what the tally of the cost of financing all those homes is. I think that this in not a reset in the market, but tremors of the coming big one. In the end people will see that housing is much much more than previously thought.
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