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U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

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U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

Old 02-13-2007, 01:52 PM
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Default U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

"3 million manufacturing jobs have been lost since Bush took office with about one-third of those losses attributed to the rising deficit in manufactured goods."

"The new trade report showed that the deficit with China shot up 15.4 percent last year to total $232.5 billion, the largest imbalance ever recorded with any country."

Anyone paying attention out there? Damn scary future for those of us in this sector. I'm 42 with a baby on the way and there's not a day that goes by that I don't wonder what this sector will be like 5-10 years down the road...




Old 02-13-2007, 04:40 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

I'll bet you have a huge trade deficit with your mortgage company.

You should sell your house and rectify that problem.
Old 02-13-2007, 04:55 PM
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Default RE: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

to the bilge
Old 02-13-2007, 05:03 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

232.5 billion, ok fine, so what's China owe United States?
Old 02-13-2007, 07:32 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

percentages please, otherwise it is a useless number.

Old 02-13-2007, 07:41 PM
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Default RE: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years



Old 02-13-2007, 07:53 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

Yeah, it's Dubya's fault that American companies profit so much that we have a deficit. We really ought to go back to child labor oh wait, better yet.. Let the Dems raise those minimum wages an absurd amount for those people at Mickey D's and Wally World who can't even figure out basic change when you give $5.04 and your bill is $4.04...

Yep, Dubya's fault.. I may not agree with everything with this administration, but I sure don't walk around like an ass and blame them for everything. Business, especially large American Businesses have their own agenda and have to follow some pretty stupid guidelines that make it more profitable for a company ship 500 tons of wood to china so they can make a bunch of coffee tables for pennies on the dollar that get shipped back here and sold for $500..

Yeah, it's Dubya's fault..

TO THE BILGE - TALLY HO!
Old 02-14-2007, 12:19 AM
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Default RE: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

They closed a furniture manufacturing plant in Mississippi where my daughter lives. All the guys also lost their jobs and pensions.

Now OK all you THTrs, so OK thats business these days, right..might makes right and all that...(darn we now can "rationalize" anyhting and everything) and hey - screw them working slobs that actually MAKE things and supply services

No political comment so far but here is an observation taht to me is is really almost unbelieveable. The company is still in business under a different name and opertaions have moved to China. BUT get this - they STILL use the Mississipppi and other US lumber and ship it to China - it gets made and then they ship it back for sale in the US!!! Hard for me a recreational boater and an engineer with some feel for the processess involved that the economics these days are such that this is cheaper. BTY, the workers were pretty much near minimum wage ..... yikes!!!!

And can't resist one political comment - can we really continue to thrive as a country where we produce nothing except managers and entertainment and selling each other pieces of paper with no "intrinsic" value? Can we create wealth this way indefinitely. What are we really producing? Ok I am "speculating" here..... And what happens if (God forbid) these other countries stop making or supplying us the products (foods mfgd goods, hi tech products, software, etc.)and now even services for our National defense whatever reason in the event of a war or attack or whatever - can we turn the old economy back on fast enough???

Maybe some day dot com types and stock brokers, and lawyers and professional athletes and entertainers and beaurocrats and bankers and CEO's will be the left outs and producers like electricians, masons, soldiers, carpenters, automechanics, etc will be the in crowd again ?????????? Could that happen in the US???? ;? ;?
Old 02-14-2007, 06:39 AM
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Default RE: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

LI Sound Grunt, good post.

LI Sound Grunt - 2/13/2007 11:19 PM . . . And can't resist one political comment - can we really continue to thrive as a country where we produce nothing except managers and entertainment and selling each other pieces of paper with no "intrinsic" value? Can we create wealth this way indefinitely. What are we really producing?
I've wondered the same thing. Do we just become a country of Professional athletes and restaurant workers?

LI Sound Grunt - 2/13/2007 11:19 PM . . . Maybe some day dot com types and stock brokers, and lawyers and professional athletes and entertainers and beaurocrats and bankers and CEO's will be the left outs and producers like electricians, masons, soldiers, carpenters, automechanics, etc will be the in crowd again ?????????? Could that happen in the US???? ;? ;?
Would be nice. But probably not in our lifetime. I keep thinking I should encourage my kids to become plumbers. Plumbing work is something that I don't see being eliminated by technological means (at least not for a long time), and you can't offshore outsource it.

I don't think you can put the blameONLY on the Bush administration for jobsleaving this country. I think it started happening long before he took office. Not that I see him doing anything about it though.

Who's to blame? I don't know. What is the answer? I don't know that either.

But it seems obvious to me (and I think LI Sound Grunt feels the same way), we seem to be headed in the wrong direction. Something's gotta change. But what and how?
Old 02-14-2007, 07:02 AM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

This is not ALL Bush's fault - both political parties could have done something about it but they didn't feel it was a priority. What happens when the Chinese get tired of us managing all their money for them? I know it sounds isolationist, but i can't see how its in the long term best interest of this country to outsource all of our manufacturing capability. Are we supposed to buy our aircraft carriers and tanks from the Chinese too?

Old 02-14-2007, 09:13 AM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

still no percentages.
Old 02-14-2007, 10:31 AM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

Red - China accounts for 31% of our total trade deficit.

Grunt - I'm surprised the furniture factory made it this long. What's most concerning now is the transition of highly technical trade jobs overseas.

The wrecking ball of the trickle down effect is in full motion; the job shops that supply component parts for manufacturers to use in their products are flat out folding up right under our noses. My concern is that there will be no need for the tradesmen, engineers, quality techs and other production personnel that form the core of manufacturing. The result will be in the coming generations an over-abundance of lawyers, stockbrokers, and other professional SERVICE providers.







Old 02-14-2007, 11:12 AM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

phoeker - 2/14/2007 9:31 AM

Red - China accounts for 31% of our total trade deficit.

Sorry, let me clarify.

The total trade imbalance as a percentage to total GDP.

Old 02-14-2007, 11:22 AM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

redneck joe - 2/14/2007 10:12 AM

phoeker - 2/14/2007 9:31 AM

Red - China accounts for 31% of our total trade deficit.

Sorry, let me clarify.

The total trade imbalance as a percentage to total GDP.






this is all that really matters!





The Big Mac indexFeb 1st 2007
From Economist.com

The Economist's Big Mac index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), according to which exchange rates should adjust to equalise the price of a basket of goods and services around the world. Our basket is a burger: a McDonald’s Big Mac.

The table below shows by how much, in Big Mac PPP terms, selected currencies were over- or undervalued at the end of January. Broadly, the pattern is such as it was last spring, the previous time this table was compiled (see article). The most overvalued currency is the Icelandic krona: the exchange rate that would equalise the price of an Icelandic Big Mac with an American one is 158 kronur to the dollar; the actual rate is 68.4, making the krona 131% too dear. The most undervalued currency is the Chinese yuan, at 56% below its PPP rate; several other Asian currencies also appear to be 40-50% undervalued.

The index is supposed to give a guide to the direction in which currencies should, in theory, head in the long run. It is only a rough guide, because its price reflects non-tradable elements—such as rent and labour. For that reason, it is probably least rough when comparing countries at roughly the same stage of development. Perhaps the most telling numbers in this table are therefore those for the Japanese yen, which is 28% undervalued against the dollar, and the euro, which is 19% overvalued. Hence European finance ministers’ beef with the low level of the yen.
Old 02-14-2007, 01:14 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years



Nat says...................please read this



Magambo Guru says this

click to read

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Writer.../MG021207.html








sample


George Cocalis of the Brewer Futures Group, writing at FinancialSense.com, writes that, in China, "the average personal income wage has risen 24% in the last three years, most rapidly for the younger class. The annual salary on average is $10,000, which is the equivalent of $40,000 in the [United States]. It is estimated that about 30% of the Chinese population is experiencing this rapid salary growth, but remember that less than 25% of all the Chinese is still more than the entire population of the United States



Old 02-14-2007, 01:36 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

The Triple Deficit Paralyzes Policy Vision
David Malpass 01.29.07, 12:00 AM ET

The U.S. has a powerful, growing economy, yet we pro-ject the "wrong path" image of an aging society drowning in debt and burdening the world with risk. This gloomy fiction distorts our domestic and international economic policymaking. We should reject it and launch a more energetic vision of global prosperity built on economic freedom and dynamism.

The U.S. is the world's biggest producer, exporter, seller, saver and innovator. On average it adds 30% more to global GDP each year than does all of Asia (45% more in 2006), with one-tenth the population. U.S. employment, wages and profits are at record levels. We're the biggest source of foreign aid and the only major source of its most effective component: private donations.

Despite dire fiscal predictions the federal budget is on a trend that could bring it into balance at the end of the decade, with a debt-to-GDP ratio well below the Clinton Administration's average. Talk of our recklessly low "savings rate" circles the globe yet arbitrarily excludes the economy's trillions of dollars of compound gains. Calculated properly, U.S. households have more financial savings--and in most years add more--than the rest of the world combined.

The loudest hue and cry is over our trade deficit, which is blamed for dragging down our economy, as well as everyone else's. Yet the view that our trade deficit costs jobs and adds to global financial risk can't be reconciled with our 4.5% unemployment rate and the eager flow of long-term, low-cost foreign capital into U.S. investments.

Misreading the U.S. Economy

Fear of fiscal, trade and savings deficits has crippled domestic policymaking. We are in desperate need of tax reform yet believe we "can't afford" it. Both political parties should aggressively lay out their tax visions and invite debate. To have a coherent vision they will first have to reject Washington's stifling assumption that tax reform--no matter how well constructed--doesn't add to economic growth or asset values.

Entitlement reform is also distorted by this mistaken image of U.S. financial collapse. An increase in the Social Security tax burden proposed by austerity advocates would slow the economy without adding one iota of the external funding needed to protect retirees and add to their rate of return. Let's shelve this "reform," which is a disguised tax increase, and instead expand tax-preferred savings vehicles.

As gasoline prices soared in 2005 and 2006, the world held its breath, thinking the U.S. might collapse under the weight of its debt and dependency. Even though the economy survived easily, we are paralyzed by Iran's encroachment into the Strait of Hormuz. We should break this choke hold by offsetting any declines in gasoline prices with an incremental gasoline tax. Naysayers will claim consumers can't afford it, but they already have.

Selling our economy short may be causing even more damage to our international economic policy. In one of the ironies of economics the U.S. apologizes profusely for the global trade imbalance. We accept blame for growing our economy and population faster than our trading partners (which draws in imports) and providing more attractive investments (which brings in foreign capital). Rather, the primary burden should be on the trade-surplus, capital-outflow countries to enhance their economic climes, not on us to diminish ours.

Cowed by trade-deficit phobia, we require minutely negotiated trade agreements. These are a far cry from the sweeping liberalization that would bring the most benefits to the U.S., the biggest trading nation by far. Trade-policy paralysis insists on agribusiness subsidies and blocks even small reductions in our stiff quotas and duties on the importation of sugar, peanuts, orange juice and ethanol, even though these policies damage the environment and impede growth in developing countries.

The world has huge economic problems. Europe's low birth-rate, high unemployment and exodus of human capital are of bigger consequence to the world than the U.S.' deficits, but the latter dominate the G-7's agenda and world headlines. Japan and South Korea are still relying on corporatism instead of economic flexibility, a global liability as their workforces shrink. The U.S. provides heavy subsidies for large homes and expensive health procedures but lets its infrastructure petrify. Russia's bleak hope is to create energy monopolies fast enough to prevent the Islamic world and China from overrunning its sparsely populated borders. Much of Latin America and Africa are decapitalizing, running IMF-mandated fiscal and trade surpluses (capital outflows) that have contributed to their multidecade stagnation in per capita income.

Despite the rich global environment for economic progress, the U.S.--low on self-esteem--has focused on China's yuan as the 21st century's economic scourge. U.S. exports (and global growth) would get a much bigger boost if more countries joined China in growth-promoting currency stability than if China joins them in currency instability. Pleading with China to add to the yuan's value at the dollar's expense parades our weak image and enhances China's strength. At the same time, Latin America seems to have decided the U.S. is one of the weak links in the global economy. It is reaching out to Europe and China for investment and free-trade agreements, with the view that those are the economic relationships of the future. This global misreading of the U.S.' deficits is weakening our friendships and blocking our economic vision, even as our economy enjoys its third decade of robust expansion.
Old 02-14-2007, 02:07 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

TraderVic - 2/14/2007 1:36 PM

The Triple Deficit Paralyzes Policy Vision
David Malpass 01.29.07, 12:00 AM ET

The U.S. has a powerful, growing economy, yet we pro-ject the "wrong path" image of an aging society drowning in debt and burdening the world with risk. This gloomy fiction distorts our domestic and international economic policymaking. We should reject it and launch a more energetic vision of global prosperity built on economic freedom and dynamism.

The U.S. is the world's biggest producer, exporter, seller, saver and innovator. On average it adds 30% more to global GDP each year than does all of Asia (45% more in 2006), with one-tenth the population. U.S. employment, wages and profits are at record levels. We're the biggest source of foreign aid and the only major source of its most effective component: private donations.

Despite dire fiscal predictions the federal budget is on a trend that could bring it into balance at the end of the decade, with a debt-to-GDP ratio well below the Clinton Administration's average. Talk of our recklessly low "savings rate" circles the globe yet arbitrarily excludes the economy's trillions of dollars of compound gains. Calculated properly, U.S. households have more financial savings--and in most years add more--than the rest of the world combined.

The loudest hue and cry is over our trade deficit, which is blamed for dragging down our economy, as well as everyone else's. Yet the view that our trade deficit costs jobs and adds to global financial risk can't be reconciled with our 4.5% unemployment rate and the eager flow of long-term, low-cost foreign capital into U.S. investments.

Misreading the U.S. Economy

Fear of fiscal, trade and savings deficits has crippled domestic policymaking. We are in desperate need of tax reform yet believe we "can't afford" it. Both political parties should aggressively lay out their tax visions and invite debate. To have a coherent vision they will first have to reject Washington's stifling assumption that tax reform--no matter how well constructed--doesn't add to economic growth or asset values.

Entitlement reform is also distorted by this mistaken image of U.S. financial collapse. An increase in the Social Security tax burden proposed by austerity advocates would slow the economy without adding one iota of the external funding needed to protect retirees and add to their rate of return. Let's shelve this "reform," which is a disguised tax increase, and instead expand tax-preferred savings vehicles.

As gasoline prices soared in 2005 and 2006, the world held its breath, thinking the U.S. might collapse under the weight of its debt and dependency. Even though the economy survived easily, we are paralyzed by Iran's encroachment into the Strait of Hormuz. We should break this choke hold by offsetting any declines in gasoline prices with an incremental gasoline tax. Naysayers will claim consumers can't afford it, but they already have.

Selling our economy short may be causing even more damage to our international economic policy. In one of the ironies of economics the U.S. apologizes profusely for the global trade imbalance. We accept blame for growing our economy and population faster than our trading partners (which draws in imports) and providing more attractive investments (which brings in foreign capital). Rather, the primary burden should be on the trade-surplus, capital-outflow countries to enhance their economic climes, not on us to diminish ours.

Cowed by trade-deficit phobia, we require minutely negotiated trade agreements. These are a far cry from the sweeping liberalization that would bring the most benefits to the U.S., the biggest trading nation by far. Trade-policy paralysis insists on agribusiness subsidies and blocks even small reductions in our stiff quotas and duties on the importation of sugar, peanuts, orange juice and ethanol, even though these policies damage the environment and impede growth in developing countries.

The world has huge economic problems. Europe's low birth-rate, high unemployment and exodus of human capital are of bigger consequence to the world than the U.S.' deficits, but the latter dominate the G-7's agenda and world headlines. Japan and South Korea are still relying on corporatism instead of economic flexibility, a global liability as their workforces shrink. The U.S. provides heavy subsidies for large homes and expensive health procedures but lets its infrastructure petrify. Russia's bleak hope is to create energy monopolies fast enough to prevent the Islamic world and China from overrunning its sparsely populated borders. Much of Latin America and Africa are decapitalizing, running IMF-mandated fiscal and trade surpluses (capital outflows) that have contributed to their multidecade stagnation in per capita income.

Despite the rich global environment for economic progress, the U.S.--low on self-esteem--has focused on China's yuan as the 21st century's economic scourge. U.S. exports (and global growth) would get a much bigger boost if more countries joined China in growth-promoting currency stability than if China joins them in currency instability. Pleading with China to add to the yuan's value at the dollar's expense parades our weak image and enhances China's strength. At the same time, Latin America seems to have decided the U.S. is one of the weak links in the global economy. It is reaching out to Europe and China for investment and free-trade agreements, with the view that those are the economic relationships of the future. This global misreading of the U.S.' deficits is weakening our friendships and blocking our economic vision, even as our economy enjoys its third decade of robust expansion.

A little background of David

A short Google search reveals all. Not only is David Malpass not an academic, he doesn't hold an economics qualification of any kind (he has an undergraduate physics degree and an MBA), though this hasn't stopped him becoming chief economist at Bear Stearns


Malpass held a series of economic appointments during the Reagan and Bush administrations, including six years with Secretary James Baker at the Treasury and State Departments. He was also Republican Staff Director of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee and Senior Analyst for Taxes and Trade at the Senate Budget Committee
Old 02-14-2007, 05:08 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

could you check the qualifications of Mogambo Guru?

and have Trader go reread it and reread his post and tell us what david left out ???
Old 02-14-2007, 05:14 PM
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nat
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

Aw Shucks


www.jsmineset.com

Jim’s Formula:

First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.
Old 02-14-2007, 06:24 PM
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Default Re: U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Another Record - 5 straight years

Bigeye10 - 2/14/2007 2:07 PM
Not only is David Malpass not an academic, he doesn't hold an economics qualification of any kind
GASP!!!


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