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Is it time for interest rates to go up?

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Is it time for interest rates to go up?

Old 03-21-2021, 06:58 PM
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Default Is it time for interest rates to go up?

The real estate market is unbelievable in my location right now. Houses selling in mere hours. Little inventory to be had. A lot of that is probably related to the pandemic...not as many people selling.

This has all led to a massive increase in home prices. My home has probably increased in value by 30-35% in the past 6 months. Talking with a realtor buddy of mine, he says people are leveraging their 401k’s to buy and mentioned a lot of low down payment loans going out too. This seems like a major recipe for disaster, no? Seems like we need to cool this off a bit. What say you?
Old 03-21-2021, 07:04 PM
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I say we are fkd so live it up while you can
Old 03-21-2021, 07:09 PM
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what is the current refinance interest rate?
Old 03-21-2021, 07:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Bizzi View Post
what is the current refinance interest rate?
Looks to be around 3.4%
Old 03-21-2021, 07:25 PM
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Rates haven’t changed significantly in almost a decade. 2.875 vs 3.5 is a lot % wise but my first place I purchased back in 2000 it was 8%.

The rate of US treasury borrowing money most likely we will see negative rates before they go up significantly.
Old 03-21-2021, 07:26 PM
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Originally Posted by c_m_25 View Post
Looks to be around 3.4%
you mean its been above thst in last 12 yrs?

If they could raise rates they would have.

Eventually all this printing blows up....it always has.

​​​​​​The morons running the asylum are the dumbest imagineable , and have no idea what they are doing or the implications . God help us all.
Old 03-21-2021, 07:27 PM
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Thank you c_m_25,
I would love to see the economy stay strong forever, but... To me it feels like we are closer to another drop than further. I can't give a detailed break down of why I feel that, except maybe how gas prices are going up, the recent free money, and how many are buying houses(hopefully they can afford). I am just keeping my debts down.
Old 03-21-2021, 07:33 PM
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Cheaper to buy then try and build, anyone check lumber prices lately?
Old 03-21-2021, 07:42 PM
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My attorney says about 60 percent of all closing he handles are cash so that blows the interest theory out the window. Additionally rates have increased about 50 basis points in the last month. You have a number of things pushing this real estate boom, people leaving closed states (CA, Illinois, NY, etc), people have a lot cash on hand with the market increasing and having few places to spend it, work from home so people can live wherever they want. It will stop but not sure when as there is little to no inventory.
Old 03-21-2021, 07:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Saltydawg15 View Post
My attorney says about 60 percent of all closing he handles are cash so that blows the interest theory out the window. Additionally rates have increased about 50 basis points in the last month. You have a number of things pushing this real estate boom, people leaving closed states (CA, Illinois, NY, etc), people have a lot cash on hand with the market increasing and having few places to spend it, work from home so people can live wherever they want. It will stop but not sure when as there is little to no inventory.
Curious what the census shows. I keep hearing about this exodus from California, but I wonder how true that is.
Old 03-21-2021, 07:56 PM
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Well said
Old 03-21-2021, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mbb View Post
you mean its been above thst in last 12 yrs?

If they could raise rates they would have.

Eventually all this printing blows up....it always has.

​​​​​​The morons running the asylum are the dumbest imagineable , and have no idea what they are doing or the implications . God help us all.
I meant to include this quote when I replied in the previous thread
Old 03-21-2021, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by c_m_25 View Post
Curious what the census shows. I keep hearing about this exodus from California, but I wonder how true that is.
lots of people in California are leaving but it doesn’t seem to be affecting prices in our county.
Almost every week, one of my patients tell me they have bought out of state.
Just got a call on this last Thursday from an electrician buddy of mine who has bought in South Carolina.
Sold a run down track home in Oxnard CA for $650,000 with no contingency’s. Paid $210,000 for his new house on an acre.
The people moving always say the same thing; Politics and cost of living are what are driving them out.
I wonder how long real estate will stay inflated with the exodus of all the worker bees?
Old 03-21-2021, 10:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Stix1 View Post
Cheaper to buy then try and build, anyone check lumber prices lately?
How about the price of copper or PVC?!
Old 03-22-2021, 02:48 AM
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Originally Posted by westbootie View Post
lots of people in California are leaving but it doesn’t seem to be affecting prices in our county.
Almost every week, one of my patients tell me they have bought out of state.
Just got a call on this last Thursday from an electrician buddy of mine who has bought in South Carolina.
Sold a run down track home in Oxnard CA for $650,000 with no contingency’s. Paid $210,000 for his new house on an acre.
The people moving always say the same thing; Politics and cost of living are what are driving them out.
I wonder how long real estate will stay inflated with the exodus of all the worker bees?

I had two contracts on my house in south Florida and both were from California and the second one that I will be closing on in about a week is all cash for 7 figures.
Old 03-22-2021, 03:23 AM
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I’m in central NJ. A nice community on salt water lagoons with direct access to the bay and then the ocean. In my community there are usually 6-8 homes listed at once. Now just 1-2. When they do get listed there are lines to get in to see them. My neighbor two doors down just had an open house. He had over 150 buyers and three offers over asking on day one and the home sold.

The last I checked, NJ was as blue a state as can be. I don’t know what if fueling this boom around here but it is nuts.
Old 03-22-2021, 05:54 AM
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Seems to be a lot of people moving from areas of high population density, high taxes and overzealous controls to areas that don't have those issues. And yes I've noticed a lot of all cash deals but the 60% number seems high. A lot of these may be the result of multiple offers with the sellers picking all cash quick close offers over those with conventional financing.

On top of the big city exodus is the issue of people retiring a little sooner rather than deal with the madness and moving to warmer coastal areas.
Old 03-22-2021, 05:56 AM
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Originally Posted by 1976K204x4 View Post
I say we are fkd so live it up while you can
Exactly.

Anyone buying cash right now ain’t too bright. You would be silly to pay cash and turn down a loan at 2.5-2.75

We are building a new lake home and although I could pay cash, we are closing tomorrow on a 30 yr fixed construction to perm at 2.75. The bank went through finances with a fine tooth comb, lots of strict requirements on jumbos right now.


.

Last edited by OffshoreApparel.com; 03-22-2021 at 03:15 PM.
Old 03-22-2021, 06:15 AM
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Rates already have gone up. They jumped just last week.

In December you could refi a non-conforming for 2.875 on a 30. Same
loan is 3.25+ today.
Old 03-22-2021, 06:20 AM
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Would love to see a nice fat market correction before they make a big jump.

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