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Florida Housing market ?????

Old 02-26-2021, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by DarienJim View Post
Cannot compare 2007 housing bubble to this bubble.

2007 was fueled by stupid people and fraud and borrowing money and leveraging and buying multiple houses. I cannot tell you how many people I have meet that owned 20-30 homes/condos due to stupid lending practices in 2007.

2020/2021 bubble is actually be fueled by legit population movement due to COVID and Taxes. That will not stop for at least another year IMHO. The dam was been busted open.
I respect your thoughts on the above. And I will admit, in 2008, the house next to me sold for $450,000 to a handful of kids that couldn't have made more than $50k between them - I assume one of them volunteered his SSN for a sweetheart deal on "rent."

However, most of the houses that I personally saw foreclosed on in 2010-2011 were owned by real people who simply didn't think through the implications of the loans they were given, and decided that they didn't want to make payments on a house that was underwater. There were a lot of HELOCs in that crowd.
Old 02-26-2021, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by triplenet View Post
Things will be fine until inflation and interest rates spike. Then we will hit a brick wall.

that’s what my crystal ball says and I am sticking with it 👍
That's what gives me pause about buying a residential investment property right now. Wife is on my ass about buying a property and I'm gunshy to do it with everything around here going for thousands over asking price and over appraisal.
Old 02-26-2021, 12:57 PM
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Originally Posted by On the Half Shell View Post
That's what gives me pause about buying a residential investment property right now. Wife is on my ass about buying a property and I'm gunshy to do it with everything around here going for thousands over asking price and over appraisal.
Same situation. People are buying sight unseen. These won't end well.
Old 02-26-2021, 01:13 PM
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Originally Posted by On the Half Shell View Post
That's what gives me pause about buying a residential investment property right now. Wife is on my ass about buying a property and I'm gunshy to do it with everything around here going for thousands over asking price and over appraisal.

If inflation hits, and rates spike, you’ll never afford it. Prices will increase due to devaluation of the dollar and rates will increase trying to combat it. Those currently in their homes at these rates, even though they are high, should have a pretty safe asset. Not so much for that cash sitting in the bank. They say inflation isn’t here, because over 25% of the figure is based on “rent” not home prices. Real estate is one of the best protections from inflation, even better than gold, I believe in part this could be a contributing factor to the run up.


.
Old 02-26-2021, 01:23 PM
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One of hte biggest issues in 07 was they allowed stated income with no verification. People could say they made a million a year and it was accepted. I do not think that is the case now. FL got hit hard then, it will be interesting to see what happens when the bubble does burst.

Biggest thing IMHO is the forbearance and moratorium on foreclosures. People are living in houses and not paying for it. Biden has extended this until the end of June for foreclosures. Once the banks start trying to collect again there will be people pushed out and this will bring prices back down as well as add inventory. Another thing is those that would typically be moving to retirement villages are not due to the pandemic. I personally would expect to start seeing this Q4 depending on if any further extensions are put in place.
Old 02-26-2021, 04:10 PM
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The NY market is crazy as well. Mine went live today, 29 showings and offers are coming in now. It’s almost laughable how insane it is.
Old 02-26-2021, 05:04 PM
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The real estate market is being driven by low interest rates. Although prices are historically high, higher than inflation. Mortgage payments are equal or in some cases cheaper than they were 10-20-30 years ago adjusted for inflation. Buyers aren't spending more on a month to month basis just carrying more debt.
Old 02-26-2021, 06:22 PM
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Thanks everyone for the opinions, insight, and exceedingly thoughtful responses, once again I've learned something.

"teqmod"....I never thought about the forbearance market, but I think your on to something. It makes perfect sense to me and one of the reasons given that has persuaded me to place our home on the market this spring. ( Full disclosure, not ours entirely, joint ownership ) I was thinking about May 1st, but now I may dial that back to April 20th or so.

Old 02-26-2021, 07:49 PM
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Originally Posted by On the Half Shell View Post
I can you tell right now that my realtor wife has 3 buyers that can't find houses in south FL because everything they're interested has 2-5 cash offers well over the asking price within 24-48 hours of hitting the market. Yesterday, they found a house with 8 contingent offers behind the accepted offer. Another offered $25,000 over the asking price and lost out to another buyer.
I'm no realtor but it sounds like she should dump those lookers and find some buyers!
Old 02-26-2021, 10:32 PM
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Florida has always been a boom and bust state and it will continue to be
Old 02-27-2021, 04:00 AM
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I am building a house that won’t be done for about 12 months but with the market booming I decided to get my money while I can, two things that will affect this market are higher interest rate (been rising) and controlling COVID and things getting back to normal (light can be seen).

All this being said I decided to list my house, realtor did not place it on the MLS as he felt he could sell it without doing so and more commission for him. In the first week he showed it 3 times and I had two offers and we had a contract for about $14k below list, the buyer at the 11th over backs out over a sea wall inspection that spooked him. My realtor said let’s raise the price $75K, again not on MLS. First showing at 9am and by noon we had a full price offer and we are going through inspection now.

if this closes at current price I will net a little over $200K than we were expecting a year ago when we got a target from our realtor.

could it go up sure but a bird in the hand.

You need to ask yourself, if the market tanks can you afford to wait 10 years for the next boom?
Old 02-27-2021, 04:40 AM
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Housing prices will be strong until there is a turn in the economy. If the economy turns Florida will be hardest hit along with other vacation spots like Cape Cod. I can't tell you the number of people I know buying really expensive homes that are planning to pay the mortgage through weekly rentals (VRBO). When the economy turns the first to go will be vacations and then without adequate cash flow the second homes.

Hopefully the economy will remain strong for years to come, I just don't see it happening.

Old 02-27-2021, 04:56 AM
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Phoenix area is absolutely chaotic. They aren’t really selling homes they are having auctions. Accepting multiple offers and taking the pick of the litter. All because of California...
Old 02-27-2021, 05:17 AM
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A buddy of mine made a full price cash offer on a house in Vero Beach within minutes of it hitting multiple listing. Within hours there were several additional offers. It looks like it will end up being a bidding war. I guess there aren't any rules restricting that. At any rate, I'm contemplating putting ours up for about 200-300K over what I think realistic is - and just wait to see what happens. Just a thought.
Old 02-27-2021, 05:30 AM
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Originally Posted by airbrush View Post
A buddy of mine made a full price cash offer on a house in Vero Beach within minutes of it hitting multiple listing. Within hours there were several additional offers. It looks like it will end up being a bidding war. I guess there aren't any rules restricting that. At any rate, I'm contemplating putting ours up for about 200-300K over what I think realistic is - and just wait to see what happens. Just a thought.
Spray and Airbrush:
Where ya gonna move? Sell high, buy high, you're not ahead. Homestead portability can help if you downsize. Packing/moving is a bitch though.

I'm selling my property on Merritt Island. Too much dam work. Plus, Airbrush and I are in safe conservative areas. Spray, not sure about Orange county area for you.

Anyone want 2 acres with Indian River access on Merritt Island?
Old 02-27-2021, 05:40 AM
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At least in Florida you can still get a decent house for $200-300k,in Toronto the average price is over a $1000000.00 and that’s just a semi or town house.
Old 02-27-2021, 06:05 AM
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So what areas in the U.S. have an EXCESS of inventory?
Old 02-27-2021, 06:08 AM
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Originally Posted by polarred21 View Post
So what areas in the U.S. have an EXCESS of inventory?
Higher end in major cities.
Old 02-27-2021, 06:18 AM
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Originally Posted by BBaychop View Post
Housing prices will be strong until there is a turn in the economy. If the economy turns Florida will be hardest hit along with other vacation spots like Cape Cod. I can't tell you the number of people I know buying really expensive homes that are planning to pay the mortgage through weekly rentals (VRBO). When the economy turns the first to go will be vacations and then without adequate cash flow the second homes.

Hopefully the economy will remain strong for years to come, I just don't see it happening.
I'm in Florida and disagree that this will be the case here. The housing crash in 08 was a different animal. This time, there is a huge influx of people moving here permanently, not just buying 2nd homes. As mentioned, 85% of the job applications I process are from people who have just moved here. The places they just sold for $750k in their current "utopia's" can be had for much less here, even now during this boom. There will come a point when the markets in their areas start dropping fast and will lead to panic selling so those areas will take a big hit. A large amount of those people and those dollars are headed this way..

The other interesting thing relating to the applicants I see is the ages of the people applying. Most of them are ancient in construction years. I look twice when I see they graduated school in 80's. Most are from the NE or Co. I got 3 old NY union carpenter applicants this week....
Old 02-27-2021, 06:21 AM
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Originally Posted by polarred21 View Post
So what areas in the U.S. have an EXCESS of inventory?
There are some SMOKING hot deals in Oakland County Michigan.




GREAT example of what happens when a city launches into wealth and collapses under the weight of public management by people unable to count to 10.

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