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Florida Housing market ?????

Old 02-26-2021, 08:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Flot View Post
I will say this. In 2007, everyone said "Florida prices are high but that's okay because there is so much demand, and just look at California - we're nowhere near their prices."
Cannot compare 2007 housing bubble to this bubble.

2007 was fueled by stupid people and fraud and borrowing money and leveraging and buying multiple houses. I cannot tell you how many people I have meet that owned 20-30 homes/condos due to stupid lending practices in 2007.

2020/2021 bubble is actually be fueled by legit population movement due to COVID and Taxes. That will not stop for at least another year IMHO. The dam was been busted open.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:06 AM
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Things will be fine until inflation and interest rates spike. Then we will hit a brick wall.

that’s what my crystal ball says and I am sticking with it 👍
Old 02-26-2021, 08:09 AM
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Originally Posted by DarienJim View Post
Cannot compare 2007 housing bubble to this bubble.

2007 was fueled by stupid people and fraud and borrowing money and leveraging and buying multiple houses. I cannot tell you how many people I have meet that owned 20-30 homes/condos due to stupid lending practices in 2007.

2020/2021 bubble is actually be fueled by legit population movement due to COVID and Taxes. That will not stop for at least another year IMHO. The dam was been busted open.
I hate to tell you but non-conforming loans are back. My agent in MD sold a $3m home and the buyer had to get 3 loans.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by WolpackVO View Post
There is 50% less inventory available right now compared to last year......Most listings are sold before you can even put a sign in the yard....as soon as it hits the mls its gone!
Yep. A bayfront Sally house, as is, hit Zillo at 8 pm on a Monday night. We looked at it the next day at 1. Made a full offer on the spot which was accepted. Moved in last Friday after repairs. 4/3 with dock and lift, gated and will have less than $850k in it. Agent said she was slammed with calls on it and if we changed our minds no big deal.

Sold our north Alabama home for $200 more than it was worth a couple of years before using an an agent. Closed yesterday on our Orange Beach, AL condo. Sold by word of mouth after letting the other owners know. No agent. Had over 10 inquires after I cut a deal with first guy to look at it. Gave a price and he said okay.

Crazy market.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by DarienJim View Post
Cannot compare 2007 housing bubble to this bubble.

2007 was fueled by stupid people and fraud and borrowing money and leveraging and buying multiple houses. I cannot tell you how many people I have meet that owned 20-30 homes/condos due to stupid lending practices in 2007.

2020/2021 bubble is actually be fueled by legit population movement due to COVID and Taxes. That will not stop for at least another year IMHO. The dam was been busted open.
Those stupid lending practices still happen with regularity. I see it with lenders all the time behind the scenes in facebook groups etc... Seeing people with credit scores of 500 get approved for jumbos. Competitions to see who can get the worst candidate the highest loan amount. The general public never asking "what can I afford" only "what can I be approved for".
Old 02-26-2021, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by t84a View Post
I hate to tell you but non-conforming loans are back. My agent in MD sold a $3m home and the buyer had to get 3 loans.
As a person whom used to trade and sell them on Wall Street, non-confirming loans are not the issue.

Non-conforming means they do not qualify for sale into FHLMC/FNMA, usually due the mortgage principal size. Jumbos are non-confirming for example as are Super Jumbos. This has nothing to do with quality of the loan and in fact most jumbo loans are have high FICO borrowers.

The issue with 2007 was a small sector of the mortgage market which is sub-prime (i.e., low FICO scored borrowers), and specifically those adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that were called 2/28 ARMs. Those had a very low teaser rate for the fixed rate initial two years allowing the borrower in a sense to over qualify for the loan. That is, since the rate was well below the 30 year fixed rate, they were able to borrow more than should have. Then you coupled many lenders doing 100% LTV loans so no down payments. In a sense you had infinite leverage.

Problem with 2/28 sub-prime ARMs back then was what we called the periodic cap was uncapped--so since interest rates were going up in 2006 and 2007 and these were mostly floating off LIBOR which was increasing and there was not cap at the end of the 2 year fixed rate period, they new rate floated up very high...in some case tripling (rates going from 4% to 12%). Crazy structure and crazy my colleagues created these things. Actually a ticking time bomb and it did in fact they blew up. People simplify could not pay the new rate in year 3 and then the refinancing market dried up. Of course, these people thought they would all flip the houses and condos before the 2 year anniversary date hit and got caught holding the bag. One prices peaked and started to decline, the market unwound as did the financing.

So we are not creating these types of mortgages any more...there is not securitization model funding them. So really 20006-2008 is nothing like now.

Old 02-26-2021, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by TorFed View Post
Those stupid lending practices still happen with regularity. I see it with lenders all the time behind the scenes in facebook groups etc... Seeing people with credit scores of 500 get approved for jumbos. Competitions to see who can get the worst candidate the highest loan amount. The general public never asking "what can I afford" only "what can I be approved for".
I know it is hard to believe but a lot of the excessive lending programs of the 2006-2007 period no longer exist.

Do not confused what was occurring then with now with sub-prime lending. For example, some one with say a 400 FICO score could get a junk auto loan, but will be paying say 18-24% interest rate.

Back in 2006-2007 people were getting stupidly low rates due to what I wrote above.

They are not apple to apples comparisons.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:30 AM
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Originally Posted by triplenet View Post
Things will be fine until inflation and interest rates spike. Then we will hit a brick wall.
Actually real estate is one of he few asset classes that holds up well in inflation. Not stock and certainly not bonds.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:31 AM
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Subprime mortgages still exist.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by t84a View Post
Subprime mortgages still exist.
Of course they do...you did not read my post fully. They do not exist in 100% LTV with 2/28 teased ARMs with no periodic cap at reset. That was my point.
Old 02-26-2021, 08:45 AM
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Just remember if you sell at the peak of the market, you also have to buy something else at the peak of the market. So unless you’re downsizing significantly, or planning to move to a more affordable location, trying to time the real estate market isn’t always in your best interest. You can always rent for awhile, but in my area rents are going up faster than home values and with the low interest rates it doesn’t make sense to rent.

Old 02-26-2021, 09:02 AM
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sell your self save a ton.........use real estate attorney and settlement company.

its really a no brainer. get people pre qualified.

the only problem is the number of real estate agents who will call

the property and location speak for themselves
Old 02-26-2021, 09:05 AM
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I was in the same industry as Jim during that time. His explanation is 100% my experience.

If you sell, you may have to compete with buyers paying cash from Northern states or Western states. Think pensioners who sell their home in other places for multiples of what they paid many years ago. They have cash and want to move warmer.

You will also compete with 2 earners who got rid of their place in Brooklyn to buy a place in Florida and WFH. They kept their place in Brooklyn for a while and lived in FL last year. Now they have decided to buy in FL.

If you are selling just for selling sake, I think that is a mistake. If you are selling for some kind of political concern, I think that is a mistake. If you want to sell and move to somewhere with a lower priced housing market - not sure where that would be right now - then go for it.
Old 02-26-2021, 09:05 AM
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Like someone mentioned, its not just FL where the market is hot, seems like everywhere is the same. Had my eye on getting a lake home up north(WI area), for about 2 years, all prices were inline with my price point then BAMMM soared with the rest of the country last year. Holding out until the market stabilizes or better yet, crashes.


Last edited by king_me; 02-26-2021 at 04:42 PM.
Old 02-26-2021, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by Fish Haid View Post
The number of brand new houses and apartments going up in the Gainesville area is staggering. I can't imagine where all these new residents are going to come from.

Traffic there is bad enough already. Can't imagine any more apartments.

.
Old 02-26-2021, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by t84a View Post
What follows euphoria?
Is it more euphoria?
Old 02-26-2021, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by superjag View Post
Is it more euphoria?
Sometimes...with a cigarette in between.

Old 02-26-2021, 09:22 AM
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Sellers market right now for sure. We're appraising about 20-25% up in 2 years WITHOUT considering our remodeling. Tampa Bay area.

With that said, I wouldn't plan on selling unless you're trying to go somewhere else. You wont find what you're looking for unless you want to pay a premium.

My in-laws have been looking for a 51/49 house to rent and live in, split time between here and their wine country retirement home. Use each half time as income while they stay in the other. Homes that they were looking at in the 1-1.2mm price range are now 1.5+.
Old 02-26-2021, 09:40 AM
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Originally Posted by DarienJim View Post
I know it is hard to believe but a lot of the excessive lending programs of the 2006-2007 period no longer exist.

Do not confused what was occurring then with now with sub-prime lending. For example, some one with say a 400 FICO score could get a junk auto loan, but will be paying say 18-24% interest rate.

Back in 2006-2007 people were getting stupidly low rates due to what I wrote above.

They are not apple to apples comparisons.
The same programs no longer exist, but I see behind the curtain the mortgage brokers all gambling on who they can get with the lowest scores into the biggest loans. These are not identical scenarios, but the bag is gonna be held the next time the economy drops. It is basically mortgage brokers taking advantage of the financially illiterate.
Old 02-26-2021, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Supergumby5000 View Post
Sellers market right now for sure. We're appraising about 20-25% up in 2 years WITHOUT considering our remodeling. Tampa Bay area.

With that said, I wouldn't plan on selling unless you're trying to go somewhere else. You wont find what you're looking for unless you want to pay a premium.

My in-laws have been looking for a 51/49 house to rent and live in, split time between here and their wine country retirement home. Use each half time as income while they stay in the other. Homes that they were looking at in the 1-1.2mm price range are now 1.5+.
If you are moving one primary home to another, it often evens out. The price of the places you were looking at 2 years ago is inflated by 20% but there is a good chance your property now is worth 20% more as well etc... That's what I'm struggling with personally with moving in the next year or two and it's a tough pill.

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