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Anyone considering moving money out of stock and in to cash?

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Anyone considering moving money out of stock and in to cash?

Old 10-24-2020, 11:04 PM
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Default Anyone considering moving money out of stock and in to cash?

Before the election Im debating if I want to pull all of my money out of stocks and move to cash, or pull out maybe half and see what happens.
Old 10-24-2020, 11:09 PM
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Originally Posted by RussH View Post
Before the election Im debating if I want to pull all of my money out of stocks and move to cash, or pull out maybe half and see what happens.
Timing markets is a fools game. 1 in 1000 can do it, but the other 999 miss out on moves.
Only hold cash after you have sold something at a profit, or have dumped it from your portfolio. Then reinvest it into existing holdings, or something you feel will give gains over a number of years.
Don't let the media sway you about the upcoming election.
Old 10-25-2020, 12:41 AM
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Only fools would think about doing so. If the election has you spooked you should not be in the markets .Get the money in gold and move to Idaho.
Old 10-25-2020, 05:32 AM
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Depends on your age . If close to retirement you need to be cautious of non economy related adjustments either +-. If you are nowhere near retirement the market is a long game. My hunch is the snowflake gets elected and not much happens .
Old 10-25-2020, 05:33 AM
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All the time, but I never pull the trigger since my horizon is pretty far away.
Old 10-25-2020, 05:33 AM
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Russ, it's all about time in the market, not market timing. From what I've read, it doesn't matter who gets in.
Old 10-25-2020, 05:46 AM
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Here's the problem. Knowing when to reinvest.

I got lucy back in January when I predicted the market was about to tank. It did. Ok, so I moved a large percentage of my investments to cash prior to the crash. I thought I was a genius. Well guess who was still in cash when all that lovely market recovery occurred very shortly thereafter. Stupid me, that's who. I went from genius to jackass. No worse off than I was in January. But no better off either.

I have reinvested some in very stable types of funds, still have some cash on the ready. I'm not altering my investments due to the upcoming election though. I'm not doing any trading right now though. Trading not to be confused with investing.
Old 10-25-2020, 05:55 AM
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I agree you cannot time the market exactly, but you should have a feel for when the market is abnormally high and it is time to exit. What is the risk here you get out now and the market goes up another 10% in the next 10 months you will miss the 10% gain. You can always jump back in 6 to 10 months once there is a clear direction. The real risk is that you stay in and the market drops 50% like it has in the last few true corrections.

The best indicator I have politics aside, is that anyone and everyone is entering into the market and making huge gains right now. My 20 year old son who knows nothing about stocks has a 20% return on his investment. There is a least five other folks I know that never invested in stocks and have recently entered the market with no experience and making large gains. Haven't we seen this same phenomenon occur several times before the large market corrections in the past. I will not get the years exact but this same thing happened in 1987, 2000 and 2006.

If you are young and have 20 plus years to retire ride it out and don't worry about timing the market. If you have five to ten years before you retire, you should reevaluate your risk tolerance.
Old 10-25-2020, 06:13 AM
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dj vu...

Moved stocks into cash until after the election.

And...


Last edited by aubv; 10-25-2020 at 06:22 AM.
Old 10-25-2020, 06:28 AM
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Originally Posted by onokai View Post
Only fools would think about doing so. If the election has you spooked you should not be in the markets .Get the money in gold and move to Idaho.

.
Old 10-25-2020, 06:47 AM
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There will be another round of raining money for Rona relief that has to go somewhere, although the possibility of the capital gain tax rate going up will certainly trigger profit taking prior to the rate increase.
Old 10-25-2020, 06:51 AM
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Originally Posted by coastboater View Post
There will be another round of raining money for Rona relief that has to go somewhere, although the possibility of the capital gain tax rate going up will certainly trigger profit taking prior to the rate increase.
And if you understand tax policies, a capital gains rate increase will be bad for state and federal budgets...

I guess buy and hold will be all the rage, again..
Old 10-25-2020, 06:53 AM
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Nope
Old 10-25-2020, 06:58 AM
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Exclusive of the election I think it may be prudent to evaluate where your investments are and perhaps rebalance but I wouldn’t move everything to cash personally. Nasdaq 100 is overpriced. Your retirement horizon matters. I am having to start to think about this.

i am 12% cash right now.

What will screw up the markets short term is if the election is not called quickly or comes under challenge by either party. Market doesn’t like unknowns.

Old 10-25-2020, 07:05 AM
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Originally Posted by BACKTOTHESEA View Post
Exclusive of the election I think it may be prudent to evaluate where your investments are and perhaps rebalance but I wouldnt move everything to cash personally. Nasdaq 100 is overpriced. Your retirement horizon matters. I am having to start to think about this.

i am 12% cash right now.

What will screw up the markets short term is if the election is not called quickly or comes under challenge by either party. Market doesnt like unknowns.
and if you know how to manage investment dollars, down markets are an opportunity.
Old 10-25-2020, 07:08 AM
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Originally Posted by RussH View Post
Before the election I’m debating if I want to pull all of my money out of stocks and move to cash, or pull out maybe half and see what happens.
Good luck trying to figure out what scores of professional money managers are not able to do with any confidence. As others have noted, if you have a very long time horizon, it is probably wiser to remain invested and ride through the short term volatility even though that might be measured in years, not weeks.

The challenge nowadays is that the markets are completely dominated by political risks rather than fundamental business earnings or growth prospects. We have massively expansionary super low rate policy at the Federal Reserve, unprecedented fiscal stimulus from trillions of dollars in deficit spending, and regulatory interventions to stop foreclosures that mask credit problems to name a few big factors. If someone could tell me if all of these political factors will remain unchanged, I might be willing to make a guess on the direction of markets over the next year.

We are living through the biggest economic policy experiment in US or indeed global history and no one really has a clue as to how it turns out. It's so big and so broad across all asset types that there is no real way to protect yourself from it. Even having 100% cash doesn't necessarily help because one possibility is a return to high inflation that will reduce the value of that cash.

I am probably a bit more qualified than most THT members having been the portfolio manager of $10 billion of private equity funds until retiring earlier this year. Notwithstanding my decades of experience, I would say my opinion is not much more valuable than anyone else including my three year old granddaughter!
Old 10-25-2020, 07:16 AM
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Originally Posted by dssmith View Post
Timing markets is a fools game. 1 in 1000 can do it, but the other 999 miss out on moves.
Only hold cash after you have sold something at a profit, or have dumped it from your portfolio. Then reinvest it into existing holdings, or something you feel will give gains over a number of years.
Don't let the media sway you about the upcoming election.
I’ve always heard this, but since I’m smarter than everybody, I decided to test it earlier this year - twice. Let me confirm, timing markets is a fools game. Rebalance if you’re losing sleep.
Old 10-25-2020, 07:19 AM
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Yeah put it all on red
Old 10-25-2020, 07:30 AM
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I'm waiting for the results. That crash won't be that bad on the first day if "The Big Guy" wins. Then I will move it to more secure funds like bond holding etc. If "He who shall not be named let it be sent to the bilge" wins, I will let it ride.
Old 10-25-2020, 08:00 AM
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FWIW... My 401K is being moved to stable harbors tomorrow.

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