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Inflation, is there any?

Old 10-20-2020, 11:57 AM
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Default Inflation, is there any?

I keep hearing the Federal reserve talk about no inflation at this time but everywhere I look prices are increasing. I see commodities like lumber way up. food is out of control housing boat prices. But still the Fed say no inflation. What has to change for there to be more inflation?
Old 10-20-2020, 11:57 AM
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In before Bilge.
Old 10-20-2020, 11:58 AM
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Fuel is usually a good indicator.
Old 10-20-2020, 12:04 PM
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real inflation to me (decreased purchasing power) seems to be in the 7-10% range right now based on lumber, food, entertainment prices. Gas is cheap but that's about it.
  • Meat prices up 15% or so.
  • Lumber up over 20% for a deck that I quoted out against a BOM in April but never got around to building yet (for campground).
  • Restaurant prices adjusted higher about 10-15% (capacity restrictions). This is for the few in our area that we go to regularly.
  • Beer prices up almost 10% for 30 packs from our local grocery store. Singles up 20% in the local C-stores near both house and work.
  • Boat slip up 11%. Questioned this and they stated they are still the cheapest on the lake and their increase was 5% less than the other marinas.
  • Seasonal campsite up the standard 3.5%.
  • Used trucks and used boats up 7500%
Old 10-20-2020, 12:16 PM
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What is typically quoted is core inflation--which doesn't include food and energy sectors.

As a country, inflation will completely bankrupt us, because we keep our lifestyle alive by debt spending. If inflation goes up, so will the amount of the debt. If inflation rises, so will the amount of money it will take to service the debt.
Old 10-20-2020, 12:19 PM
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I think we are seeing inflation to some degree. The pricing differences are being blamed on COVID supply interruptions, etc. However, does anyone believe pricing is going to revert back to what it was pre-COVID? I don't think so. I do believe pricing will adjust downward in a lot of cases, although it will be a slow movement downward AND pricing won't get back to what it used to be. Therefore, we have inflation. (which is long overdue)

So - buy property and get loans! lol
Old 10-20-2020, 12:47 PM
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The primary indicator of inflation is wages and unemployment. Our unemployment rate is 8% and therefore wages are down. Iím seeing wage retraction across many sectors.

demand for cars, RVís, ATVís, boats, and other toys are a result of people redeploying cash that was used for other activities such as travel, eating out, going to bars, etc.

interesting times for sure.
Old 10-20-2020, 01:33 PM
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FYI - Lumber prices are falling.
Old 10-20-2020, 02:22 PM
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Just checked my homeowners insurance renewal.... they think theirs inflation
Old 10-20-2020, 02:40 PM
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Bond market says no
Old 10-20-2020, 02:40 PM
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What you don't see is the 7oz of potato chips in the same size bag that once had 10oz, among other things.
Old 10-20-2020, 02:40 PM
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The inflation Iím seeing in the grocery store in not so much an increase in price but in the portion size.
sugar in 4lb bags not 5
soup cans are a couple ounces smaller
Deli salads potato and macaroni packaged in smaller containers. etc etc
weíre getting less for the same cost if not a little more.
Old 10-20-2020, 02:45 PM
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If you didn't live and pay bills from around 1972 or so into the early 1980's then you don't know much about inflation.
Old 10-20-2020, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by SeaCat22 View Post
Fuel is usually a good indicator.
Not really... too dependent on exogenous factors, particularly the value of the USD.

Inflation overall is low. Click "show table" at the bottom to see CPI by category and overall. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-...line-chart.htm
Old 10-20-2020, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by SeaJay View Post
If you didn't live and pay bills from around 1972 or so into the early 1980's then you don't know much about inflation.
Amen!
Old 10-20-2020, 04:24 PM
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When $15 an hr min wage passes you will see what inflation looks like.
Old 10-20-2020, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by VTXrider View Post
Just checked my homeowners insurance renewal.... they think theirs inflation
Precisely why Warren Buffet likes insurance company stocks. They just raise rates when returns are down.
Old 10-20-2020, 04:48 PM
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
What is typically quoted is core inflation--which doesn't include food and energy sectors.

As a country, inflation will completely bankrupt us, because we keep our lifestyle alive by debt spending. If inflation goes up, so will the amount of the debt. If inflation rises, so will the amount of money it will take to service the debt.
Sucks if youíre in the commodities sector though.

Farms
Energy
Mining
Timber
Raw materials

Sux for seniors that want to put their savings in interest bearing vehicles tied to US Treasuries too.

Some day I fear the pendulum will reverse course and really drown us.

I believe however that we are going to be more like Japan......stuck in a rut of little to no inflation and zero to near zero interest rates
Old 10-20-2020, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by nicecast View Post
Not really... too dependent on exogenous factors, particularly the value of the USD.

Inflation overall is low. Click "show table" at the bottom to see CPI by category and overall. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-...line-chart.htm

Hey, don't be using big dirty exogenous words around here. Lol
Old 10-20-2020, 04:56 PM
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Originally Posted by PolishFly_Maine View Post
real inflation to me (decreased purchasing power) seems to be in the 7-10% range right now based on lumber, food, entertainment prices. Gas is cheap but that's about it.
  • Meat prices up 15% or so.
  • Lumber up over 20% for a deck that I quoted out against a BOM in April but never got around to building yet (for campground).
  • Restaurant prices adjusted higher about 10-15% (capacity restrictions). This is for the few in our area that we go to regularly.
  • Beer prices up almost 10% for 30 packs from our local grocery store. Singles up 20% in the local C-stores near both house and work.
  • Boat slip up 11%. Questioned this and they stated they are still the cheapest on the lake and their increase was 5% less than the other marinas.
  • Seasonal campsite up the standard 3.5%.
  • Used trucks and used boats up 7500%
Interesting that youíre seeing so many items rise in price so dramatically, but thatís just those items in your area. Where I am Iíve seen the increase in building materials but I havenít seen much movement in food prices, and some things are slightly cheaper. The US consumer price index that is widely recognized as *the* source of inflation numbers is nationwide of course and takes into account huge numbers of goods (and services?) across many markets. How they collect their data I have no idea but this is worth a read on a night when you have insomnia:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

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