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Coronavirus Antibody Study - 10% of NC already had it

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Coronavirus Antibody Study - 10% of NC already had it

Old 06-20-2020, 06:09 AM
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Default Coronavirus Antibody Study - 10% of NC already had it

There was some news about starting these back in April. Initial antibody tests were not very accurate, but I believe that has been resolved. The NC legislature funded a study run by wake forest university to enroll a representative demographic of the state population and test for antibodies. They have enrolled thousands of people and determined that somewhere between 8-10% test positive for antibodies. NC has a population of approx 10M, so that means 800,000 -1,000,000 have been exposed to it, maybe had some minor symptoms, and developed antibodies. We only have 50,000 identified coronavirus cases in NC. There have been approx 1,100 deaths in the state from it, so if the study is accurate then 800k-1M have already been exposed, the death rate would be around .1%

I wonder what similar tests show in places like NJ or NY? NC is still seeing an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases, compared to NJ, which is seeing only 300-400 new cases every day and the number is steadily declining. My guess is that the population there has reached herd immunity meaning 30-40% have antibodies to it, and the virus has basically burned itself out.

A state-funded study at Wake Forest Baptist Health shows nearly 10 percent of people tested in North Carolina have antibodies to the coronavirus.

The presence of antibodies means the people were likely previously infected, said Dr. John Walton Sanders, the chief of infectious disease for the Winston-Salem hospital, who is leading the study.

"We are getting very good evidence that most people who get infected are asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic," Sanders said. "Some of these people are feeling it a little bit – a scratchy throat, a little cough – but most of the people in our study had very few symptoms."
News Article
https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/ant...show/19150903/

Link To Study results
https://www.wakehealth.edu/Coronavir...dates-and-Data

Last edited by dell30rb; 06-20-2020 at 06:18 AM.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:21 AM
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I'm surprised WRAL even published that article.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:23 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
I'm surprised WRAL even published that article.
They quickly buried it, it was a footnote for a day or two on the front page then it dropped off... I had to search for it
Old 06-20-2020, 06:28 AM
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Originally Posted by dell30rb View Post
They quickly buried it, it was a footnote for a day or two on the front page then it dropped off... I had to search for it
Doesn't surprise me. I check every day just to see what's new...mostly to read Tar Heel Traveler and Bill Leslie's stuff. That headline would have jumped out.

Can't stand to read the news hardly anymore. Thanks for posting.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:34 AM
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When the dust settles we will see how bad the numbers were and how fudged they were. It does not surprise me. This entire fiasco has been nothing more than a country wide event in virtue signaling.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Lorne Greene View Post
When the dust settles we will see how bad the numbers were and how fudged they were. It does not surprise me. This entire fiasco has been nothing more than a country wide event in virtue signaling.
Bingo.

Masks...today's livestrong bracelet.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:42 AM
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I read the three links posted. I don't see where they say who they tested. Was it a truly random population or did they only test people who were in contact with confirmed cases or was there some other criteria?
Old 06-20-2020, 06:45 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
Bingo.

Masks...today's livestrong bracelet.
Succinct, I’m stealing that.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:45 AM
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[QUOTE=dell30rb;13774001]
I wonder what similar tests show in places like NJ or NY? NC is still seeing an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases, compared to NJ, which is seeing only 300-400 new cases every day and the number is steadily declining. My guess is that the population there has reached herd immunity meaning 30-40% have antibodies to it, and the virus has basically burned itself out.


/QUOTE]

Antibody Testing

New York State is conducting an antibody testing survey to develop a baseline infection rate. The preliminary results of phase two show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.

I can't find it now but I read that NYC was at like 40%.
Old 06-20-2020, 06:58 AM
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Originally Posted by maintenanceguy View Post
I read the three links posted. I don't see where they say who they tested. Was it a truly random population or did they only test people who were in contact with confirmed cases or was there some other criteria?

"Our goal is to enroll more than 500,000 participants in the COVID-19 Community Partnership Research study over the next few months, with particular interest in enrolling a representative demographic including the elderly (age 65 and older), youth (age 17 and younger) and racial/ethnic minority groups. "

Its an antibody surveillance study commissioned by the NC legislature, they are trying to get a sample of the population as a whole.

Last edited by dell30rb; 06-20-2020 at 07:28 AM.
Old 06-20-2020, 07:14 AM
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[QUOTE=joe.giuliano;13774101]
Originally Posted by dell30rb View Post
I wonder what similar tests show in places like NJ or NY? NC is still seeing an increase in the number of new coronavirus cases, compared to NJ, which is seeing only 300-400 new cases every day and the number is steadily declining. My guess is that the population there has reached herd immunity meaning 30-40% have antibodies to it, and the virus has basically burned itself out.


/QUOTE]

Antibody Testing

New York State is conducting an antibody testing survey to develop a baseline infection rate. The preliminary results of phase two show 14.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies. The preliminary results of phase one of the state's antibody testing survey released on April 23rd showed 13.9 percent of the population have COVID-19 antibodies.

I can't find it now but I read that NYC was at like 40%.
its probably way higher than 14% now, that was from april 23!
Old 06-20-2020, 07:25 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
Bingo.

Masks...today's livestrong bracelet.
I’m going to use that.
Old 06-20-2020, 07:30 AM
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Y'all can believe whatever you want, but that won't change the actual facts. But when it comes to testing I can probably find a study to support whatever point of view you wish to support. The problem is that the testing is not all that accurate and none of the tests utilized have gone through the entire gauntlet of testing necessary to satisfy the FDA's usual certifying process. Only a few actually got an Emergency Utilization Authorization designation from the FDA.
With antibody testing false positive results are an issue - the SARS- CoV -2 virus is a coronavirus. Most "common colds" are also caused by coronaviruses. So almost the entire population has had a coronavirus infection and have antibodies to a coronavirus. Not all of the antibodies detected by Covid antibody tests are unique to SAR-CoV-2. If only 2 - 3% of a general population has had an infectious disease the antibody test for that causative agent would have to have a specificity rate (no fans positives) of 99.7%. As the prevalence of a disease rises lower specificity rates are needed for the test to be useful.
Old 06-20-2020, 07:41 AM
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I would like for them to publish which antibody test they performed.

Some are very inaccurate and a couple are good but not perfect.
Old 06-20-2020, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by HeadHunt View Post
I would like for them to publish which antibody test they performed.

Some are very inaccurate and a couple are good but not perfect.
I had to dig for it but it appears LabCorp is processing them. Not 100% sure.
Old 06-20-2020, 08:55 AM
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True Story...........some friends of ours in SC have been very vocal about Covid 19 and wearing mask on Facebook. On and on about how over blown the virus was and even called out people who were wearing mask. They let their recent high school graduate son go to Florida with 2 chaperones and 11 other boys. Well, man has their tone changed. 8 of the boys have tested positive and 1 is in the hospital. Sounds like she has it now and one of the chaperones has it. She says over and over about how contagious this stuff is. Now she is a poster child for wearing a mask, washing your hands and social distancing!

Moral of the story............unless you have a situation hit close to home, you are just not going see it!
Old 06-20-2020, 09:04 AM
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Such nonsense...


Old 06-20-2020, 09:04 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
Bingo.

Masks...today's livestrong bracelet.
Ive been saying the masks are a wearable paper straw, but I like the live strong bracelets analogy. Perfect
Old 06-20-2020, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by freebooter View Post

Moral of the story............unless you have a situation hit close to home, you are just not going see it!
Ive posted this before but two different neighbors each spent 10+ days in the hospital including time in the ICU with it. 39 and 46 both healthy. 98% of people will be fine but if you are one of the unlucky ones this is no joke.

Found out this past week a woman who works in my wife’s OR six weeks ago tested positive after three days of severe vomiting. Also tested positive for the antibody the other week. End of January my daughter had the same 3 day vomiting caught from
a girl in her kindergarten, I got sick right after and our nanny ended up getting sick. Three days later we flew to Park City and the nanny flew to Paris for a week.

Our nanny is getting the antibody test this week. Should be interesting to see if she comes back positive. If so this thing has been in the US for a long time



Old 06-20-2020, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by bjm9818 View Post
Ive posted this before but two different neighbors each spent 10+ days in the hospital including time in the ICU with it. 39 and 46 both healthy. 98% of people will be fine but if you are one of the unlucky ones this is no joke.

Found out this past week a woman who works in my wife’s OR six weeks ago tested positive after three days of severe vomiting. Also tested positive for the antibody the other week. End of January my daughter had the same 3 day vomiting caught from
a girl in her kindergarten, I got sick right after and our nanny ended up getting sick. Three days later we flew to Park City and the nanny flew to Paris for a week.

Our nanny is getting the antibody test this week. Should be interesting to see if she comes back positive. If so this thing has been in the US for a long time
three days of vomiting is the stomach bug - Norovirus. And what you explained is exactly how it spreads.

Covid may cause an upset stomach, may, but it’s a lung infection, not an intestinal disease.




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