NCSUboater

I'm telling yall, we are just BARELY scratching the surface of the fallout from the shutdowns. Small businesses felt it immediately. Large businesses are JUST NOW starting to see how bad it is. Due to order backlog and fancy accounting, the numbers didn't budge very much during the start of it, but it's catching up to us now.

Just getting off some update calls and the situation is grim. They had forecasted it to be bad, but results have come back SHOCKINGLY worse than predicted.

As of now the plan - as adjusted based on Wuhan - had to be completely ripped up and feels like they are just saying "F if we know. We're screwed"

So as of now if I can make it through the year with two weeks to a month unpaid, I'll be thrilled. I expect much worse, just judging by the tone.

These are the ramifications of what was done. We're going to feel this through the rest of the year and into next year, and like I said...it's just getting started.

Side note...I have 6 weeks of vacation I have to use in addition that I haven't taken at all yet. Woop woop.

bakerjw

We were in Lowes a few weeks back and the deck lumber was gone. Like all of it. I talked to a friend of mine in Montana who works for Weyerhauser and he expects to be working overtime for the foreseeable future to replenish stocks that have been wiped out by stay at home projects.
Our local Lowes is also backordered on washers/dryers/etc... by the hundreds.
There will be some anguish, that is for sure, but things are ready to start rolling IMHO. At least unless the civil unrest spreads.

NCSUboater

Depends on the market. I would expect things directly related to consumer spending to pick up very quickly. But B2B type markets that rely on large contracts and the timing of those...it's a shit mess right now.

olyveoil

Depends on the business.
What industry you in?

t500hps

I run a large "small business" (100 people now down to 75). You are pointing out what I already have seen and realized. Around late April I told my team to plan for a return to "normal" in the fall and at around 80% of what we were doing pre-Covid. So far that is looking accurate.....and it sucks.

I've stated often that more people will go bankrupt from Covid-19 that will die from it.

NCSUboater

Industrial power. Contracts are just getting pushed to the right. Or cancelled.

Yep we had estimated by summer but that's out the window.

airbrush

Make America Great Again! Buy American. No politics. Just support American business.

NCSUboater

I wish that would help but it won't, at least not before more layoffs occur.

xlr8ngn

I'm in industrial sales too. Forecasting 20% off but will likely be more, 10% salary cut, 4 day week for production.

NCSUboater

Yep, similar. Already started letting go of production folks.

lazyboi1212

Most of the problem (and what started this whole thing) is over-reactions by the number crunchers. They don't know what to think so they just go worst case scenario. They are exacerbating an already bad situation.
The business principles are sound, there's plenty of liquidity in the markets. Everything will come back in time - probably sooner than later.

Economists and forecasters are the only people I know that can be wrong 80% of the time but people still listen to them.

olyveoil

Medical devices....we are hiring and adding capacity.

However, macro-economically these unemployment numbers are awful and will take a long time to recover in many businesses.

olyveoil

Industrial power is cyclical anyway isnt it?

xlr8ngn

And the bad thing is when business returns, and it will, they will be begging for qualified workers but they will be long gone and backlog will go through the roof.

olyveoil

Add journalists to your list

NCSUboater

Kind of. Orders can swing drastically from year to year as companies buy equipment, use it, build more facilities, need more equipment etc.

Unfortunately last year was a down year, so this is just poop mayonnaise on a shit sandwich. IE - should be an up cycle but now it's down even worse.

Yep.

WPBTH

we are extremely busy at work. we just hired 2 people. Small company (20-ish) people. We have already surpassed 2019 sales numbers. Biggest problem is getting product out of china. US suppliers are giving me massive price increases (3x 4x) and 6 month lead times on items that had 3 week lead time in December.. Its forcing my hand to go to china. They are increasing capacity and they gave me a price discount on my largest sellers lol

NCSUboater

Yep! I want to smack these scientists upside the head and say way to go, jackasses.

This isn't a long term thing I don't think, but it's long enough and there's enough uncertainty to make it really bad for a while.

yakmatt

Gun stores are selling out stock. Wife bought a new car she said there were plenty of buyers and the window tinting place had a 5 day waiting list. People (essential ) worked and sat on paychecks for months. Now they are on a buying spree.

smith202073

Definitely, the market hasn't seen this...(yet)