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Business outlook for the rest of the year - BAD

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Business outlook for the rest of the year - BAD

Old 06-04-2020, 08:10 AM
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Default Business outlook for the rest of the year - BAD

I'm telling yall, we are just BARELY scratching the surface of the fallout from the shutdowns. Small businesses felt it immediately. Large businesses are JUST NOW starting to see how bad it is. Due to order backlog and fancy accounting, the numbers didn't budge very much during the start of it, but it's catching up to us now.

Just getting off some update calls and the situation is grim. They had forecasted it to be bad, but results have come back SHOCKINGLY worse than predicted.

As of now the plan - as adjusted based on Wuhan - had to be completely ripped up and feels like they are just saying "F if we know. We're screwed"

So as of now if I can make it through the year with two weeks to a month unpaid, I'll be thrilled. I expect much worse, just judging by the tone.

These are the ramifications of what was done. We're going to feel this through the rest of the year and into next year, and like I said...it's just getting started.

Side note...I have 6 weeks of vacation I have to use in addition that I haven't taken at all yet. Woop woop.



Old 06-04-2020, 08:31 AM
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We were in Lowes a few weeks back and the deck lumber was gone. Like all of it. I talked to a friend of mine in Montana who works for Weyerhauser and he expects to be working overtime for the foreseeable future to replenish stocks that have been wiped out by stay at home projects.
Our local Lowes is also backordered on washers/dryers/etc... by the hundreds.
There will be some anguish, that is for sure, but things are ready to start rolling IMHO. At least unless the civil unrest spreads.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:33 AM
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Depends on the market. I would expect things directly related to consumer spending to pick up very quickly. But B2B type markets that rely on large contracts and the timing of those...it's a shit mess right now.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:33 AM
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Depends on the business.
What industry you in?
Old 06-04-2020, 08:36 AM
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I run a large "small business" (100 people now down to 75). You are pointing out what I already have seen and realized. Around late April I told my team to plan for a return to "normal" in the fall and at around 80% of what we were doing pre-Covid. So far that is looking accurate.....and it sucks.

I've stated often that more people will go bankrupt from Covid-19 that will die from it.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:40 AM
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Originally Posted by olyveoil View Post
Depends on the business.
What industry you in?
Industrial power. Contracts are just getting pushed to the right. Or cancelled.

Originally Posted by t500hps View Post
I run a large "small business" (100 people now down to 75). You are pointing out what I already have seen and realized. Around late April I told my team to plan for a return to "normal" in the fall and at around 80% of what we were doing pre-Covid. So far that is looking accurate.....and it sucks.

I've stated often that more people will go bankrupt from Covid-19 that will die from it.
Yep we had estimated by summer but that's out the window.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:46 AM
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Make America Great Again! Buy American. No politics. Just support American business.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:47 AM
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I wish that would help but it won't, at least not before more layoffs occur.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:47 AM
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I'm in industrial sales too. Forecasting 20% off but will likely be more, 10% salary cut, 4 day week for production.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:48 AM
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Originally Posted by xlr8ngn View Post
I'm in industrial sales too. Forecasting 20% off but will likely be more, 10% salary cut, 4 day week for production.
Yep, similar. Already started letting go of production folks.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:53 AM
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Most of the problem (and what started this whole thing) is over-reactions by the number crunchers. They don't know what to think so they just go worst case scenario. They are exacerbating an already bad situation.
The business principles are sound, there's plenty of liquidity in the markets. Everything will come back in time - probably sooner than later.

Economists and forecasters are the only people I know that can be wrong 80% of the time but people still listen to them.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:54 AM
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Medical devices....we are hiring and adding capacity.

However, macro-economically these unemployment numbers are awful and will take a long time to recover in many businesses.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:56 AM
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Industrial power is cyclical anyway isnt it?
Old 06-04-2020, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by NCSUboater View Post
Yep, similar. Already started letting go of production folks.
And the bad thing is when business returns, and it will, they will be begging for qualified workers but they will be long gone and backlog will go through the roof.
Old 06-04-2020, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by lazyboi1212 View Post
Most of the problem (and what started this whole thing) is over-reactions by the number crunchers. They don't know what to think so they just go worst case scenario. They are exacerbating an already bad situation.
The business principles are sound, there's plenty of liquidity in the markets. Everything will come back in time - probably sooner than later.

Economists and forecasters are the only people I know that can be wrong 80% of the time but people still listen to them.
Add journalists to your list
Old 06-04-2020, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by olyveoil View Post
Industrial power is cyclical anyway isnt it?
Kind of. Orders can swing drastically from year to year as companies buy equipment, use it, build more facilities, need more equipment etc.

Unfortunately last year was a down year, so this is just poop mayonnaise on a shit sandwich. IE - should be an up cycle but now it's down even worse.

Originally Posted by xlr8ngn View Post
And the bad thing is when business returns, and it will, they will be begging for qualified workers but they will be long gone and backlog will go through the roof.
Yep.
Old 06-04-2020, 09:27 AM
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we are extremely busy at work. we just hired 2 people. Small company (20-ish) people. We have already surpassed 2019 sales numbers. Biggest problem is getting product out of china. US suppliers are giving me massive price increases (3x 4x) and 6 month lead times on items that had 3 week lead time in December.. Its forcing my hand to go to china. They are increasing capacity and they gave me a price discount on my largest sellers lol
Old 06-04-2020, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by lazyboi1212 View Post
Most of the problem (and what started this whole thing) is over-reactions by the number crunchers. They don't know what to think so they just go worst case scenario. They are exacerbating an already bad situation.
The business principles are sound, there's plenty of liquidity in the markets. Everything will come back in time - probably sooner than later.
Economists and forecasters are the only people I know that can be wrong 80% of the time but people still listen to them.
Yep! I want to smack these scientists upside the head and say way to go, jackasses.

This isn't a long term thing I don't think, but it's long enough and there's enough uncertainty to make it really bad for a while.
Old 06-04-2020, 09:29 AM
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Gun stores are selling out stock. Wife bought a new car she said there were plenty of buyers and the window tinting place had a 5 day waiting list. People (essential ) worked and sat on paychecks for months. Now they are on a buying spree.
Old 06-04-2020, 09:34 AM
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Originally Posted by olyveoil View Post
Depends on the business.
Definitely, the market hasn't seen this...(yet)

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