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View Poll Results: What will the Post COVID-19 Economy look like?
Roar back to its former glory this year
116
35.91%
Take months or possibly years to recover
201
62.23%
No opinion
6
1.86%
Voters: 323. You may not vote on this poll

The US Economy Post COVID-19

Old 03-26-2020, 06:06 AM
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Default The US Economy Post COVID-19

Lots of diverse discussions/opinions across the web about what will happen with the economy once the dust settles. What I love about THT is the amazing diversity here, so I'd be interested to hear your input. Will the economy roar back as some anticipate, or will the long term ramifications of COVID-19 put a damper on the economy for a protracted period of time, starting with a cautious consumer?

Interestingly, the majority seem to believe that the relief bill is a shot of starter fluid sprayed in the carb of an engine with more serious issues.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:12 AM
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The heat of the summer is coming. With that a lot of business, for a lot of people. I believe we'll get going good again around May 1, but it will take 2-3 months to get going real good.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:16 AM
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I think business will be booming after this is all over.. People are couped up now scared to spend money, but once its over they'll be getting out and spending in a hurry.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Commocean View Post
the relief bill is a shot of starter fluid sprayed in the carb of an engine with more serious issues.
That's putting it mildly... IMHO. No government money is free... it comes from taxpayers somewhere down the line.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:34 AM
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The ramifications of sending millions of workers home and the subsequent job loss associated will be felt for years to come. This will thrust millions who live paycheck to paycheck into financial disaster. Maybe people will wake up and realize that they would be better off if they saved that $1000 and didn't buy that new 75" flatscreeen, Iphone, ect. Maybe they don't need that shiny new truck with a $600+/payment. Maybe they would be better off saving that money for a rainy day or investing it for the future.

Ahh what the heck am I talking about that is crazy talk! Go ahead and finance that TV, new furniture, new appliances, new car, buy that cell phone this is 'Merica!!
Old 03-26-2020, 06:38 AM
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Yolo

Originally Posted by lurker25 View Post
the ramifications of sending millions of workers home and the subsequent job loss associated will be felt for years to come. This will thrust millions who live paycheck to paycheck into financial disaster. Maybe people will wake up and realize that they would be better off if they saved that $1000 and didn't buy that new 75" flatscreeen, iphone, ect. Maybe they don't need that shiny new truck with a $600+/payment. Maybe they would be better off saving that money for a rainy day or investing it for the future.

Ahh what the heck am i talking about that is crazy talk! Go ahead and finance that tv, new furniture, new appliances, new car, buy that cell phone this is 'merica!!
Old 03-26-2020, 06:38 AM
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Originally Posted by amofgreenville View Post
I think business will be booming after this is all over.. People are couped up now scared to spend money, but once its over they'll be getting out and spending in a hurry.
Whike I’d like to have your optimism if 5-10million people loose their jobs in the next 6 months they will have no money to spend. Every two weeks we extend this shutdown causes even greater long term damage. I thing the biggest fear is having no idea how long this will last.

If it goes a month and things return to “normal” and we only need to quarantine the hot spots like NYC by year end things will recover somewhat. If this shutdown last until June it’s hoing to be years before we recover.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:39 AM
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While I think the correction will take some time, we should see a big initial drop in unemployment just as soon as employers can open their doors and begin operating again eg. Hotels, restaurants, retailers airlines etc.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:50 AM
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When the gov't says stay indoors, don't travel, and forces businesses to close.... Everyone that works services and can remote in to do office work, they won't have customers to serve if they are all closed pretty quickly.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:56 AM
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It's been rocking for the last 3 days.
Old 03-26-2020, 06:56 AM
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It will be a combination of roaring back and taking months/years.
Old 03-26-2020, 07:01 AM
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I think it all depends on how long we stay in our current situation. I think if Trump really follows through with opening back up by Easter we will be fine.
Old 03-26-2020, 07:10 AM
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Originally Posted by weems View Post
I think if Trump really follows through with opening back up by Easter we will be fine.
I don't look for that to happen but his narrative is that of a business man and the market is responding. Just what we need right now to gain some momentum. He's typically a few steps ahead on things it seems.
Old 03-26-2020, 07:13 AM
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Personal/professional opinion. All real estate marketing (not the market, but the marketing) is effing panicking. I am seeing previously abided by laws in real estate marketing in my area broken in every other email.

My gut tells me primary markets will be ok. People who bought based off of their 'new wealth' from the last year or two in the bear market will default. Other than that people should be ok.

Secondary market is likely screwed as people will be re-evaluating their needs for a second home and will be a sell-off.

Before this we were seeing aside from new construction 50-60 new listings a day. That is a number that should go up as a normal season approaches. It has back tracked to 10-15.
Old 03-26-2020, 07:19 AM
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Originally Posted by lurker25 View Post
The ramifications of sending millions of workers home and the subsequent job loss associated will be felt for years to come. This will thrust millions who live paycheck to paycheck into financial disaster. Maybe people will wake up and realize that they would be better off if they saved that $1000 and didn't buy that new 75" flatscreeen, Iphone, ect. Maybe they don't need that shiny new truck with a $600+/payment. Maybe they would be better off saving that money for a rainy day or investing it for the future.

Ahh what the heck am I talking about that is crazy talk! Go ahead and finance that TV, new furniture, new appliances, new car, buy that cell phone this is 'Merica!!
At this point, I'm thinking many of these millions are people who will quickly go back to work when restaurants, theaters, salons, barbers, etc open back up. I don't think it'll roar back, but will take a few months (not years) to come back to life. At this point I'm thinking the people displaced will be back in the workforce fairly quick. Also remember, being furloughed allows you to collect unemployment. So many of thees furloughed employees will be back at work.
Old 03-26-2020, 08:57 AM
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I don't expect a complete return to where we were before this started. Laid off a number of people earlier this week......hope to recover and re-hire some of them but don't expect we'll need all of them back ever. Part of our issue is industry driven BEFORE COVID-19 showed up but the virus has sped up the process.
Old 03-26-2020, 09:36 AM
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People are going to spend money like rich pirates that just got off the black pearl.

Hopefully they have money to spend.....
Old 03-26-2020, 09:43 AM
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Hundreds of thousands of businesses will never reopen. Some of you guys are delusional.
Old 03-26-2020, 09:45 AM
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Poll answers make no sense. Roar back to its former glory this year and Take months or possibly years to recover.

Second option should be Years to recover, Months is this year, there are 9 left.

The economy doesn't care about a certain number of businesses closing. Witness the crash in 07/08. Here in Michigan, many street corners had 3 of 4 corners with vacant storefronts. Today, some of those corners still have a vacant storefront, yet the economy came back.

With unemployment so low prior to this, many businesses couldn't hire to full employment. After this, if they are still around, they'll be able to hire who they want.

I predict the stock market will return to the high 20s before the end of the year, and pass its former highs after the installation of the next president.
Old 03-26-2020, 09:55 AM
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QEternity coupled with people realizing we need to bring manufacturing, etc back to our shores and things will appear to be awesome...in the really long term, this virus may have been the best thing to happen to us.

Also, we are much closer to the end of the virus than the media is saying...


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