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Ford Stock... Is the threat real?

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Ford Stock... Is the threat real?

Old 08-15-2019, 01:49 PM
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Question Ford Stock... Is the threat real?

I was reading something - which I now can't find... that said all the hammer that Ford has had revolves around Tesla.

Apparently, everyone in the room knows that without Ford's F150, Ford is, essentially, worthless. And as the number truck sold, Tesla's truck will, if successful, take market share from Ford.

People like to argue that it's because of the voting structure of the Ford family's shares, etc. I tend to call BS on that since the stock has done FAR better and the structure has stayed the same.

Is there validity in the Tesla/Ford argument. Do you agree that without the F150, Ford is almost worthless?

Do you think that Ford can really bring an electric F150 to market that could rival Tesla?
Old 08-15-2019, 01:52 PM
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No, Ford is more than just the F-150 (don't have numbers to back that up though).

I'd think Ford could bury any Tesla competition with an electric F-150.
Old 08-15-2019, 01:53 PM
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Just asked in the stock thread about holding F. Taking a beating on that one.
Old 08-15-2019, 01:54 PM
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they have a very strong HD truck market as well. Superdutys and then of course heavy haul trucks.

I agree if folks had a choice between elec F150 and a Tesla most would take the Ford
Old 08-15-2019, 02:05 PM
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I'm happy to hear the views on this... and I hope you're right. I, too, am taking a beating on F. I am still up as I have enjoyed the dividends -- but still, I'd like to see better results on my cap.
IF they can continue to pay out the div, I don't think I care about the price and I would consider buying more as I have been in the same place (it's a roller coaster LOL).

Carry on!
Old 08-15-2019, 02:07 PM
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Tesla is a dead company. They are no threat to Ford at all.

Google or YouTube Tesla's used market. They have no service, no ability to resell a used vehicle.

Don't get me wrong - they have some really cool tech - but as an auto manufacturer - they will never survive.
Old 08-15-2019, 02:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Brass Monkey View Post
Tesla is a dead company. They are no threat to Ford at all.

Google or YouTube Tesla's used market. They have no service, no ability to resell a used vehicle.

Don't get me wrong - they have some really cool tech - but as an auto manufacturer - they will never survive.
You don't think so? I don't know about that... Personally I like the no-dealer model.
What do you mean by "no ability to resell a used vehicle??" I'm 100% certain that I can list a Tesla on Autotrader and find a buyer.

Don't get me wrong. I'll be happy if they aren't a threat. I'm heavy in F and have no Tesla... but I'm not so certain.

Old 08-15-2019, 02:18 PM
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Originally Posted by OldPete View Post
I was reading something - which I now can't find... that said all the hammer that Ford has had revolves around Tesla.

Apparently, everyone in the room knows that without Ford's F150, Ford is, essentially, worthless. And as the number truck sold, Tesla's truck will, if successful, take market share from Ford.

People like to argue that it's because of the voting structure of the Ford family's shares, etc. I tend to call BS on that since the stock has done FAR better and the structure has stayed the same.

Is there validity in the Tesla/Ford argument. Do you agree that without the F150, Ford is almost worthless?

Do you think that Ford can really bring an electric F150 to market that could rival Tesla?
All trucks are roughly 43% of total unit sales while the f series alone is roughly 35% of total unit sales. Of course the real key indicator is profitability.

While Tesla is a threat. They are a distant threat. Musk has never met any deadline with regards to production. Tesla is at a minimum 3 years out from the first production pickup being on the road.

Yes Ford could make an electric 150, but why? I don’t think the demand is there for an electric pickup.

December-2017-Sales.pdf
Old 08-15-2019, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by OldPete View Post
You don't think so? I don't know about that... Personally I like the no-dealer model.
What do you mean by "no ability to resell a used vehicle??" I'm 100% certain that I can list a Tesla on Autotrader and find a buyer.

Don't get me wrong. I'll be happy if they aren't a threat. I'm heavy in F and have no Tesla... but I'm not so certain.


This will prevent Tesla from ever catching on beyond the new car buyers.

They do not let anyone work on the cars themselves & if they find out your car was damaged they disable the serial number, refuse to sell you parts & turn off the charging stations.
Old 08-15-2019, 02:27 PM
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The problem is a bunch of truck guys is not going to switch over to a brand that has a California yuppie vibe to it. Also, Ford has a huge portfolio, Explorers are becoming the new police car I see everywhere, civilan Explorers are everywhere, they have a tone of rental and fleet sales, the super duty lineup, box trucks, vans in the EU. Ford is not going anywhere, they have a successful product line and are smart enough to be researching and investing in the future.

Now with that said out of the 2.5M units, ford moved in 2018 1.1M were F series so they definitely need to protect that product line.
Old 08-15-2019, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Brass Monkey View Post
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxSQuGeoug8

This will prevent Tesla from ever catching on beyond the new car buyers.

They do not let anyone work on the cars themselves & if they find out your car was damaged they disable the serial number, refuse to sell you parts & turn off the charging stations.
Yeah, this guy went through hell with his two Teslas. I watched most of the saga on Youtube. With that said the insurance on them is crazy due to Tesla not being completely operational and parts taking forever to get to body shops if at all. I know several people with Teslas and they know that a small accident can total out the car or create a long, long wait at the body shop.
Old 08-15-2019, 02:32 PM
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Keep in mind that Ford just invested 500 million in electric company Rival, I'm not too worried about Fords place in the car business.
Old 08-15-2019, 02:36 PM
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Look at the forest for the trees...and this isn't specific to Ford. Liquidity/Credit markets are locking up. That's what happened in 2007-2008.
Old 08-15-2019, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by schoolsout1 View Post
Look at the forest for the trees...and this isn't specific to Ford. Liquidity/Credit markets are locking up. That's what happened in 2007-2008.
Eventually, one of these days - you will be right. Just keep repeating it, over and over again.



Old 08-15-2019, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by YFMF View Post
Keep in mind that Ford just invested 500 million in electric company Rival, I'm not too worried about Fords place in the car business.
I don't generally put much stock in the whole, "We're spending $$$ on such-and-such." I look at results. Unfortunately, what I see isn't great.

For example. The whole, "We're getting out of the passenger car business because nobody wants them."

You know that's total bullshit right? The real reason they got out is because they couldn't build a decent passenger car to compete with Toyota, Honda, etc. They haven't had a decent selling car since the Taurus -- and that turned to crap too.
That tells me that they have crappy leadership. Granted, I was never a fan of Steelcase man. I think he was hired to be a puppet. He's NOTHING like the guy from Boeing. That was real leadership.

In the end, I think they'll get rid of Steelcase man and, in desperation, shift to a leader like previous. Heck... the guy before this one was better.

Lastly, look at their VW alignment. Crazy. They did it as a hedge with the passenger car (I think)... I love my VW (and the two I owned before it), but when it comes to perception of quality, they aren't at the top. LOL.

Make NO mistake. I am 100% with you guys and hope you are ALL correct!

I'm sticking with F -- and I may buy more -- but I'm not as certain as you guys are. And, unfortunately, the market sees it my way too.
Old 08-15-2019, 03:57 PM
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Originally Posted by mac7769 View Post
Eventually, one of these days - you will be right. Just keep repeating it, over and over again.

just sayin’...

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/13/au...ge-since-2010/
Old 08-15-2019, 04:31 PM
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Originally Posted by OldPete View Post
I don't generally put much stock in the whole, "We're spending $$$ on such-and-such." I look at results. Unfortunately, what I see isn't great.

For example. The whole, "We're getting out of the passenger car business because nobody wants them."

You know that's total bullshit right? The real reason they got out is because they couldn't build a decent passenger car to compete with Toyota, Honda, etc. They haven't had a decent selling car since the Taurus -- and that turned to crap too.
That tells me that they have crappy leadership. Granted, I was never a fan of Steelcase man. I think he was hired to be a puppet. He's NOTHING like the guy from Boeing. That was real leadership.

In the end, I think they'll get rid of Steelcase man and, in desperation, shift to a leader like previous. Heck... the guy before this one was better.

Lastly, look at their VW alignment. Crazy. They did it as a hedge with the passenger car (I think)... I love my VW (and the two I owned before it), but when it comes to perception of quality, they aren't at the top. LOL.

Make NO mistake. I am 100% with you guys and hope you are ALL correct!

I'm sticking with F -- and I may buy more -- but I'm not as certain as you guys are. And, unfortunately, the market sees it my way too.
Pete, is telling you to bail, then bail. Stocks are not an emotion buy/hold thing IMO. Use logic and logic only, but it is your money.
Old 08-15-2019, 05:23 PM
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My friend Tony who said he would never buy a new car again just bought a new Tesla S. He used to be Porsche/MB type of guy.
Old 08-15-2019, 05:34 PM
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Ford has a fair amount of overseas sales and factories in other countries
Old 08-15-2019, 05:44 PM
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Ive been waiting for Ford to hit rock bottom. Is it there? Fords cars were good. Iver owned four and 12 trucks. Just as good as Honda and VW. Why they didnt sell is the fault of marketing people.They need to take those cars and give them a cool new brand name. Like ? Then go crazy in the truck business. I still see Ford tractors on the farms every where I travel. Remember they didnt need or take any Obama money to survive when everybody else did.

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