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When will we stop driving?

Old 06-14-2019, 06:05 AM
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Default When will we stop driving?

How far off is the affordable, reliable, self-driving car? ...or when will that become the norm; and manual driving the exception?
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:08 AM
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Never in my lifetime.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:09 AM
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I don't want to stop driving. I actually enjoy it most of the time.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:20 AM
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I know it's a concept, but it's got to happen someday right?

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Old 06-14-2019, 06:20 AM
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a BJ in a self driving car would not be nearly as challenging!
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:24 AM
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10-20 years for the first of them IMO, they have them now in trial runs and there doing great. I like driving and being in control, having the option to turn on a side street if I see a light change in front of me, but if it's self driving you can nap on the way into work.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:24 AM
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Originally Posted by DFreedom View Post
I don't want to stop driving. I actually enjoy it most of the time.
Not me.... really wish I did, but I'm just too ADD to sit still for a period of time.

Not that I'm going to make any decisions based on speculation, but it got me thinking... We are going to be building a house in the next year; and I'd be willing to live much further from work if I didn't have to be engaged while commuting.

Double edged sword, but wouldn't it be convenient at times to put your kids in the car and send it to school and back?
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Kenny Powers View Post
Not me.... really wish I did, but I'm just too ADD to sit still for a period of time.

Not that I'm going to make any decisions based on speculation, but it got me thinking... We are going to be building a house in the next year; and I'd be willing to live much further from work if I didn't have to be engaged while commuting.

Double edged sword, but wouldn't it be convenient at times to put your kids in the car and send it to school and back?
You'll be retired before self-driving cars are a practical solution for your daily commute. I work in machine vision/AI applications, dealing with both the software and hardware elements (though my concentration is not on self-driving cars, the technology has a lot of overlap). We still need to see a large increase in hardware capability, and also detailed mapping of streets (IMO) before we see true driver-less cars. Would likely require special lanes as well, so a lot of infrastructure in areas that don't already have 4-lane highways.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:28 AM
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For the safety of all drivers hopeful very soon for my wife.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Rolandt03 View Post
a BJ in a self driving car would not be nearly as challenging!
Maybe you should think about rewording that. Sounds like you switched teams.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Kenny Powers View Post
Not me.... really wish I did, but I'm just too ADD to sit still for a period of time.

Not that I'm going to make any decisions based on speculation, but it got me thinking... We are going to be building a house in the next year; and I'd be willing to live much further from work if I didn't have to be engaged while commuting.

Double edged sword, but wouldn't it be convenient at times to put your kids in the car and send it to school and back?
Can you imagine being a passenger in a blacked out car that you can't see all the other idiot drivers, all while watching a movie. I can see arriving home with normal blood pressure. I am in.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:40 AM
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Fully autonomous is a long, long ways off. However, you will see more advanced driving over the next several years but it will be limited to highways which can be much more predictable in terms of what the vehicle has to deal with. It will be like a very advanced cruise control that will allow you to totally turn control over to the car on certain sections. Some cars are pretty close now, like the Cadillac Super Cruise and the TESLA Autopilot. You will also see some limited urban slow speed driving vehicles too, which can travel in very specific routes that are pre-learned, so it takes some effort off the vehicle.

However, once these get deployed there's going to be some significant legal challenges when the first few fatalities occur that will delay the wide-spread implementation of autonomous cars. Lots of the smaller players will disappear due to the liabilities and risks involved and the bigger ones will get some type of legislative protection to continue as long as they meet certain testing standards.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:44 AM
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Its coming sooner than you think.Audi is close to selling Level 3 A8's in Europe. I think it will be accepted by the public much sooner than is expected. I have had auto braking and lane keeping in VW's and Audis and liked it.


https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/a...oubling-speed/

"Audi has higher-speed ambitions for the Level 3 self-driving system in its forthcoming 2019 A8, but first, the company has some work to do.

The automaker introduced its flagship sedan in July, but the company still has a long, country-by-country journey to win approval for its Traffic Jam Pilot semiautonomous hardware if it wants to bring this tech to consumers. This being the first such production system ever to be submitted for government approval anywhere, it's uncharted waters for the auto industry, and it's unclear when -- or even if -- the German carmaker will gain legal approval in major countries such as Germany and the US.

But that isn't stopping Peter Mertens, member of Audi's board of management for technical development, from thinking bigger -- and more importantly -- faster. Audi is presently working to legally certify the A8's system at speeds up to 37 mph (60 kph), which would be sufficient for the sort of low-speed bumper-to-bumper snarls that regularly mar commutes in cities such as Los Angeles and Boston. But in a media roundtable at the Frankfurt Motor Show this week, Mertens proclaimed that the A8's Level 3 system is capable of much greater velocities."
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:45 AM
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Originally Posted by dev View Post
You'll be retired before self-driving cars are a practical solution for your daily commute. I work in machine vision/AI applications, dealing with both the software and hardware elements (though my concentration is not on self-driving cars, the technology has a lot of overlap). We still need to see a large increase in hardware capability, and also detailed mapping of streets (IMO) before we see true driver-less cars. Would likely require special lanes as well, so a lot of infrastructure in areas that don't already have 4-lane highways.
I am into robotics, maybe not the same area you are in. But, the major thing about this is the infrastructure. We need road sensors and also communication between vehicles and road sensors. Also need more fail safes. Right now the stand alone car systems are nothing short of amazing, however without infrastructure and communications, it is a non-starter. The stand alone car systems are the start, once they have been perfected, and I think we are close, we will need to start pushing for the other things. I think we will be there in 5 years or so.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:49 AM
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Originally Posted by GravyBoat View Post
I am into robotics, maybe not the same area you are in. But, the major thing about this is the infrastructure. We need road sensors and also communication between vehicles and road sensors. Also need more fail safes. Right now the stand alone car systems are nothing short of amazing, however without infrastructure and communications, it is a non-starter. The stand alone car systems are the start, once they have been perfected, and I think we are close, we will need to start pushing for the other things. I think we will be there in 5 years or so.
So why is infrastructure needed? What's the aspect of driving that a stand alone system can't do? I always figured with AI getting more and more advanced we wouldn't need infrastructure for this, but I'm pretty ignorant on this stuff.
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Old 06-14-2019, 06:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Kenny Powers View Post
So why is infrastructure needed? What's the aspect of driving that a stand alone system can't do? I always figured with AI getting more and more advanced we wouldn't need infrastructure for this, but I'm pretty ignorant on this stuff.
Well, think about how well the systems would work, if roads could sense cars, cars communicated. Braking systems would alert the car behind you before they started to brake. Also think about hills and corners, traffic, and anything out of FOV. Also, think of infrastructure as redundant systems or back ups to the systems in your car. If a road sense that cars or people are in your way, but your car does not sense them, you fail safe. I just think relying on everything to be internal to the car you are in is never going to be a 100% solution. Maybe 80%.
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Old 06-14-2019, 07:02 AM
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There may be a place for it but I dont see how it can totally turn to auto driving. For instance, I hunt in remote places on remote roads, many not marked very well. If I have to drive there I just dont see it working in that situation. Perhaps a vehicle can be set up to auto-drive on major roadways then be turned off for other areas. Sure it would be great to get up early, get dressed, get in the truck and go back to sleep to awaken at my hunting spot or at the boat ramp but I dont know. I mean if I have to monitor the vehicle while its driving I might as well be driving it. Will it be able to autodrive while towing a trailer or boat or camper? If not then alot of vehicles will still be controlled by a driver, how well will those interact with autodriving vehicles. Just get off your damn phone and drive, quit being so lazy
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Old 06-14-2019, 07:06 AM
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Originally Posted by GravyBoat View Post
Well, think about how well the systems would work, if roads could sense cars, cars communicated. Braking systems would alert the car behind you before they started to brake. Also think about hills and corners, traffic, and anything out of FOV. Also, think of infrastructure as redundant systems or back ups to the systems in your car. If a road sense that cars or people are in your way, but your car does not sense them, you fail safe. I just think relying on everything to be internal to the car you are in is never going to be a 100% solution. Maybe 80%.
I definitely agree a fully integrated system is the best method, but is it feasible? What happens to classic cars? Is it possible to cover ALL roads including the dirt roads out in BFE? I would just think you could get to a 99% solution without the astronomical effort of creating national or worldwide infrastructure.

I feel like the human in the loop today is only about a 90% solution.
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Old 06-14-2019, 07:07 AM
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Uber is the next step in the evolution of modern transportation. Affordable transportation without the ownership of car, maintenance, insurance, storage space sounds like a win win win for half the population that doesn’t actually use their vehicle for hauling/towing. I suppose hauling and towing might be the next frontier for Uber? To early to tell but I love the whole Uber thing. It’s so easy to order, ride and pay. Just staying out of the taxi and being able to pick my drive is a plus.
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Old 06-14-2019, 07:09 AM
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Originally Posted by Rolandt03 View Post
a BJ in a self driving car would not be nearly as challenging!
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