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2021 Boat Market

Old 06-11-2021, 08:06 AM
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I'm just biding my time. I have several years to watch and wait for the next boat. Ideal boat will be a ~2019 25' with twin 150's. Small enough to tow; big enough to get around comfortably with a head for the wifey. Purchase some time around 2025 when I'm thinking the 2020 buyers will have completed their remorse and absorbed >65% depreciation on the $120,000 spend.

Until then, the little Whaler is just fine, and if I can re-power between now and whenever; I will. Life's good.
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Old 06-11-2021, 08:10 AM
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It's called INFLATION. Just go to the grocery store for a reality check. Sure, there are other factors at work, like shipping, covid, resin, etc., etc. But the economy has been juiced and then some. There will be something of a correction (minor), but get used to the new normal.
The good old days are right now!
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Old 06-11-2021, 08:14 AM
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Hi, I am an aware boat owner on the South Shore of Long Island NY. I go past the largest fish boat dealer here on LI on a daily basis. They normally have 40 to 50 boats in their inventory and today i can count their new boats available on one hand. They stock all sizes, Invincible/Jupitor/Yellowfin/Everglades/Parker, all of their inventory is gone. it is an obvious supply issue as there are always 30s, 38s, and 40+ footers on their lot. I am sure that availability will get better but these dealers sure are having their way with consumers at this time.
Old 06-11-2021, 08:22 AM
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Originally Posted by jobowker View Post
Your real estate agent is sorely misinformed. The housing market is still crazy up here, with lots of places selling above asking. The inventory of houses for sale has plummeted. As soon as something comes on the market, it's sold quickly.

If anything, overpriced suburban homes in the northeast are even more overpriced than they were a year ago. A quick look on Zillow showed only one property for sale anywhere near me, a 9,700 sq ft lot, no house, for $100,000.
Maybe they are selling to buy an 18' center console.
Heard from a real estate agent on Wednesday. In my town there are only 16 single family houses listed. Only 6 of those are under $1 million and last time I checked I saw 3 of them around 800k. I bet those remaining 3 "affordable" houses are already flush with offers.
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Old 06-11-2021, 08:26 AM
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Originally Posted by El Comandante View Post
You haven’t been to dealers on the west coast Florida then. Boats everywhere on their lots both new and used.

Don’t judge a market by what’s on CL or ‘trader.

Anyone remember the economy in 2008? Indicators today....gas prices, food prices, inflation, all those newbies that purchased at or above MSRP and inflated used prices are gonna hear that great big sucking sound soon.
Pretty sure it’s you who hasn’t been to the dealers on the west coast of florida
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Old 06-11-2021, 09:28 AM
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People have the time now. You have more time working from home. People are moving to recreational areas and working from there. I've met countless amount of people on ski lifts at Lake Tahoe, Breckenridge, copper who are doing this. Wake up, ride first tracks until 11am and then head back home to work. I don't think prices are going back to normal for as long as companies let employees work from home. I believe this is the new norm for now. It sucks for me because I recently sold my company and was looking forward to upgrading my boat and spending some time enjoying life. I've been faced with increased prices and delays in everything. At this rate I might as well find a job working from home too.

I'm sure we have members here who work at dealerships or in the accounting/finance sector. Are people financing upside down more than before? What are the differences from pre covid?
Old 06-11-2021, 10:00 AM
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I see several things on the horizon:

1. In the next 2 years, we're going to see record numbers of upside down loans on everything when asset values crash.
2. There's going to be a reckoning after manufacturers have driven up pricing up into this buying frenzy. These price levels will never hold.
3. The spending recklessness is going to hit a brick wall, as wage growth simply doesn't support it. Wait until the reality of 20 years of big payments sinks in.
4. There's going to be a glut of inventory as stocks build, and demand wanes. Wait until the used inventory flood begins.
5. A major correction in the stock market will pull the "paper wealth" rug out from under millions who have spent this newfound wealth.

Someone mentioned earlier about assets appreciating that never/rarely have before in history. Don't be surprised on the other side of the equation if this new era of bubble pricing won't correct significantly at some point. These are uncharted waters. Looking to the future, who on earth can afford a $150K+ 23' boat, a $70K+ truck, or $1MM+ house? I sure hope the boat manufacturers are saving for a rainy day.
Old 06-11-2021, 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by Hifirush View Post
I am no financial expert, nor can I predict any future, but history along with what I feel is common sense teaches me some things.

My first thought is where are people getting this money for boats, or a new house, or whatever? They are all up in price considerably, which is what we are complaining and talking about. A select few have the ability to purchase these outright, with cash. Many, I suspect, are buying with credit or pulling money out of things they should leave alone (401k, house equity, etc.).

Here in Texas, where oil was/is king, the ebb and flow of good times and bad has been documented. When times are good, guys are out buying boats, trucks, RV's, guns, you name it. The moment we fall on bad times, these things are up for sale, and usually at much reduced prices, since there is usually a glut of them. Or, you'll see people who financed default on the loans. Thats bad news for the banks, the economy, but great for snagging deals.

At the rate the government is printing money we are seeing inflation, and it may perhaps turn to hyper inflation, I don't know. But, many people "feel" they are flush with money. So they are spending and are paying the inflated rates, whether they are the new norm or not. I feel, but cannot prove, that this will "bust". Without getting into details, I know the housing boom is poised for reset, in other words, the house bubble is going to burst. Banks, and other institutions are predicting this, although many are keeping these comments to themselves. They are planning for this. Its over due, from a historic standpoint. I feel many other big ticket items will also get caught up in this.

So, where am I going with all this? While the prices rarely come down for new items, I have never really seen this in my lifetime, "street prices" will. In other words, when all the supplies are available and orders are met, etc. then you'll see discounts and deals to be had. On the used market, we will see deals coming from many sources, dealers, people trying to get out before they ruin their credit or just try to make ends meet, etc. This is historically the way our economy works, bust and boom. Now we have certain "forces" at work on it, propping up by government (giving money away and going into a debt it cannot recover from) and a pandemic.

No one can predict the future, and that's what we are all speculating here. It's OK. I am speculating, but I'm trying to use my experience in life as well history. Just my 2 cents worth.
This is well-stated.

In my opinion there are a number of competing factors at play. These home prices cannot be sustained. It may take 6 months, or it may take 6 years. I don't know. But there's no way that these ever-inflating home prices can be sustained by incomes. There are obviously some regional differences, but there were before in previous crashes. Here in Florida, and other states, that are seeing an influx of transplants from high cost urban areas, there's a little more support for the rapid price increases. Those coming from high COL areas have no idea what should be a realistic price for the local market(s). They see a nice house with a little yard, which is more than what they ever saw "up north", and see that it's priced $350-500K below what it would cost where they're from, and they think it's a steal. And then they see that their property taxes are roughly half, or less. of what they were paying up north, and they think they've won the lottery (and to a certain extent, they have). Meanwhile, the locals are looking at that same property and saying there's no way that property is worth that. The reality is, they're both right to a certain extent. And the market can't continue to sustain itself when the locals continue to get priced out of a reasonably affordable housing market.

This market has most all of the signs of the 2006-2007 market, it's just that the driving factors are somewhat different. I distinctly remember that time. I knew prices wouldn't go up forever, but I never expected things to stop literally overnight. I didn't listen to my inner voice saying that these prices don't make any sense, and I got badly burned by the crash. But, in doing so, I learned some valuable lessons.

Here's the reality of things. Prices, especially in real estate, NEVER keep just going up. Period. There's always a boom, bubble, bubble burst/crash, period of foundering, then a start of a slow recovery. That recovery slowly builds momentum over a period of years until you reach that point that you're rolling into another boom cycle. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Problem with this continued cycle is, you never know when the music is going to stop and you're going to be faced with the fact that many people refused to play and sat down in a chair quite a while ago. And then you get everyone else that's left panicking and trying to snag one of those last remaining chairs. Some get lucky and are successful, most are not. And when that happens, there's once again going to be a lot of negative pressure on our economy, and luxury items like boats, RVs, ATVs, etc. are going to be jettisoned in the panic effort by people to stabilize their finances.

Our economy is built on a house of cards. It's debatable when they started using a flimsy foundation, but there's no doubt that the foundation isn't anywhere near being solid now. It is my personal opinion that the prior administration was trying to backfill that foundation as properly and quickly as they could while still dealing with the myriad of other issues that they were faced with. Unfortunately, the pandemic totally sidelined those efforts for a number of reasons. The current administration has counteracted and/or moved away from just about all of those "stabilizing" efforts, and is moving full steam ahead with policies that were in place prior to the last administration. Whether one agrees with either or both of those last two statements is not the point of this post, and I don't want to turn this into a political argument. But there are a ton of competing issues pulling heavily on our economy. It's only a matter of time until one of those issues snaps one of the thin threads propping our economy up, and the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. Again, that could happen in 6 months or 6 years, nobody knows. And none of us will truly know which crack will cause the dam to finally break until it happens, but it's nothing more than gambling in the interim.

Those of us who learned our lessons in the 70s, or the market crash in the late 80s, or the RE crash in the 2000s, and didn't get stupid and forget what we learned, will be in pretty decent shape to take advantage of the bargains that will be around in different arenas. Of course, that's if things don't get so bad that none of us can afford bread, gas, meat, etc.

Just my humble opinion.
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Old 06-11-2021, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by El Comandante View Post
RE agent here in Florida told me all those damn Yankees can’t sell their overpriced homes up north. Nobody up there buying. Lots of contracts falling apart here. House inventory is gonna come all during summer.

Theyll prolly sell those Gucci cruisers soon too.
Not the Case, every home here is selling FAST, people are foregoing home inspections and paying over 10% asking in a lot of cases with no contingencies...
Old 06-11-2021, 10:27 AM
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Originally Posted by WavRidr359 View Post
Boy you are misinformed. Nobody buying in the Norhteast? Homes in my area are being listed on a Wednesday, having an open house on Saturday and are pending sale on Monday 15 to 20% over ask. People are offering with no contingencies for appraisal or inspection.
here in Maryland, homes do not last long at all. I have a friend who is looking… he must sign the contract sight unseen or the property is sold to someone else. It’s amazing really…
Old 06-11-2021, 10:35 AM
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I'm out. Cash the check. Decided to take my 500k chips off the table. It's been fun, but I'll be back during the next major down turn. It'll be 1929 style when it comes.

.
Old 06-11-2021, 10:37 AM
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Spacemaker made the argument I wish I was smart enough to type........
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Old 06-11-2021, 10:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Spacemaker View Post
I see several things on the horizon:

1. In the next 2 years, we're going to see record numbers of upside down loans on everything when asset values crash.
2. There's going to be a reckoning after manufacturers have driven up pricing up into this buying frenzy. These price levels will never hold.
3. The spending recklessness is going to hit a brick wall, as wage growth simply doesn't support it. Wait until the reality of 20 years of big payments sinks in.
4. There's going to be a glut of inventory as stocks build, and demand wanes. Wait until the used inventory flood begins.
5. A major correction in the stock market will pull the "paper wealth" rug out from under millions who have spent this newfound wealth.

Someone mentioned earlier about assets appreciating that never/rarely have before in history. Don't be surprised on the other side of the equation if this new era of bubble pricing won't correct significantly at some point. These are uncharted waters. Looking to the future, who on earth can afford a $150K+ 23' boat, a $70K+ truck, or $1MM+ house? I sure hope the boat manufacturers are saving for a rainy day.
Very well stated. 2006-2008 was an ugly period that financially killed a ton of people. But back then, other ancillary markets weren't on such a massive bubble like RE was. All the other things just got caught up when the RE market crashed because people were devastated so bad, their total financial picture crashed and their vehicles and toys fell victim to it. Plus, many were using their homes and the "equity" like an ATM and buying things likes boats, RVs, and expensive cars. Then the crash hit and people realized that those toys weren't worth very much when they were losing their house but the "ATM" had pushed out too much money. Unfortunately there's a lot of people around that didn't really experience that, and still many others that forgot those lessons.

I don't know when the bubble is going to burst and the dam breaks, but when it does, it's going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions....and I honestly think that 2007-2009 will have been a minor blip in comparison. I just hope that it doesn't get so bad that those of us with stable finances get sucked down into the abyss with everyone else regardless of how well prepared and financially stable we are...
Old 06-11-2021, 11:18 AM
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I agree with everything that Blade said above. I got hit hard in 2008, and frankly may have deserved it. I did learn a heck of a lesson though.

What drives me crazy is watching people that got hurt bad in 08, repeating the exact same thing again, total amnesia.

This said I'm financially conservative, which is beyond out of style today.....
Old 06-11-2021, 11:23 AM
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Everyone is making good arguments that would be correct in many cases historically, but I don't think people see the real reason. COVID is playing a big part, but it is just accelerating what was going to happen anyways, and has been predicted for years.

The baby boomer generation, at its recent peak, controlled 70% of all disposable income in the country. So that is 7 out of every 10 dollars worth of disposable dollars in the country is controlled by 20% of population. And this 20% of the population are either aging and trying to spend it all before the die, or they are dying and their kids are getting massive windfalls of cash. Some of the boomers have pensions and stocks worth several million dollars, and they earned it working for UPS or a steel mill.

All of this money has been sitting on the sidelines for decades and is now being dumped into the economy at an insane rate. The economy was already stretched to meet the demand, but COVID came along and everything just went FUBAR.

Discuss
Old 06-11-2021, 11:24 AM
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Originally Posted by Gunner38 View Post
I agree with everything that Blade said above. I got hit hard in 2008, and frankly may have deserved it. I did learn a heck of a lesson though.

What drives me crazy is watching people that got hurt bad in 08, repeating the exact same thing again, total amnesia.

This said I'm financially conservative, which is beyond out of style today.....
Same.

And thanks.
Old 06-11-2021, 11:35 AM
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A year ago brent crude was selling at $38/bbl

yesterday it closed at 72.52/bbl That is a 76% increase in one years time.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...ype=brent&op=1

when brent crude hits over $100/bbl again that is going to put a fork in this crazy market. Couple that with the previous discussions on the long term stuff and I would agree with others that we are in for a bloodbath of biblical proportions. Hope as well those of us that are financially prepared are not going to get sucked into the black hole.
Old 06-11-2021, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Hifirush View Post
I am no financial expert, nor can I predict any future, but history along with what I feel is common sense teaches me some things.
My first thought is where are people getting this money for boats, or a new house, or whatever? They are all up in price considerably, which is what we are complaining and talking about. A select few have the ability to purchase these outright, with cash. Many, I suspect, are buying with credit or pulling money out of things they should leave alone (401k, house equity, etc.).
Here in Texas, where oil was/is king, the ebb and flow of good times and bad has been documented. When times are good, guys are out buying boats, trucks, RV's, guns, you name it. The moment we fall on bad times, these things are up for sale, and usually at much reduced prices, since there is usually a glut of them. Or, you'll see people who financed default on the loans. Thats bad news for the banks, the economy, but great for snagging deals.
At the rate the government is printing money we are seeing inflation, and it may perhaps turn to hyper inflation, I don't know. But, many people "feel" they are flush with money. So they are spending and are paying the inflated rates, whether they are the new norm or not. I feel, but cannot prove, that this will "bust". Without getting into details, I know the housing boom is poised for reset, in other words, the house bubble is going to burst. Banks, and other institutions are predicting this, although many are keeping these comments to themselves. They are planning for this. Its over due, from a historic standpoint. I feel many other big ticket items will also get caught up in this.
So, where am I going with all this? While the prices rarely come down for new items, I have never really seen this in my lifetime, "street prices" will. In other words, when all the supplies are available and orders are met, etc. then you'll see discounts and deals to be had. On the used market, we will see deals coming from many sources, dealers, people trying to get out before they ruin their credit or just try to make ends meet, etc. This is historically the way our economy works, bust and boom. Now we have certain "forces" at work on it, propping up by government (giving money away and going into a debt it cannot recover from) and a pandemic.
No one can predict the future, and that's what we are all speculating here. It's OK. I am speculating, but I'm trying to use my experience in life as well history. Just my 2 cents worth.
Although I was a small child in the mid to late 1970's, I have studied economics extensively as part of my MBA program.
The current average personal savings rate is 15%, double what is was 2 years ago and pretty close to an all time high; while the amount of money (due to the strong economy of the last 4 years) people have amassed is unprecedented. People now fear inflation is going to late 1970's levels and are spending that cash to avoid it being devalued. They may be right and are partially to blame - that is what spirals up or down are all about.
Early on the the late 70's, many people held cash back expecting a bubble and prices to fall - home prices in many areas, including the Northeast tripled from 1977 to 1985, and never went back down - after Reagan whipped inflation, prices stabilized at those levels for over a dozen years before starting back up in the very late 90's. Those people who didn't buy in before prices doubled lost a lot of money.
The one number most people who see a crash and burn aren't talking about is most of what is being bought, whether it is houses, cars or boats aren't because of easy credit and loans to everyone - they are to the more well-off buyers with an excess of cash on hand.
Old 06-11-2021, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Phins360 View Post
A year ago brent crude was selling at $38/bbl

yesterday it closed at 72.52/bbl That is a 76% increase in one years time.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...ype=brent&op=1

when brent crude hits over $100/bbl again that is going to put a fork in this crazy market. Couple that with the previous discussions on the long term stuff and I would agree with others that we are in for a bloodbath of biblical proportions. Hope as well those of us that are financially prepared are not going to get sucked into the black hole.
And one other thing, there's going to be absolutely no immediate warning (other than the obvious warning signs that many of us are mentioning now), it's just going to happen, and happen fast. It'll be very similar to 2008...when the music stops, it's just going to stop, like a light switch being turned off. At that point, there's no saving yourself or anyone else. You have to depend on whatever preparations you either made or didn't make ahead of time. Then all you can do is hold on for the ride for the next several years.
Old 06-11-2021, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by LI32 View Post
Although I was a small child in the mid to late 1970's, I have studied economics extensively as part of my MBA program.
The current average personal savings rate is 15%, double what is was 2 years ago and pretty close to an all time high; while the amount of money (due to the strong economy of the last 4 years) people have amassed is unprecedented. People now fear inflation is going to late 1970's levels and are spending that cash to avoid it being devalued. They may be right and are partially to blame - that is what spirals up or down are all about.
Early on the the late 70's, many people held cash back expecting a bubble and prices to fall - home prices in many areas, including the Northeast tripled from 1977 to 1985, and never went back down - after Reagan whipped inflation, prices stabilized at those levels for over a dozen years before starting back up in the very late 90's. Those people who didn't buy in before prices doubled lost a lot of money.
The one number most people who see a crash and burn aren't talking about is most of what is being bought, whether it is houses, cars or boats aren't because of easy credit and loans to everyone - they are to the more well-off buyers with an excess of cash on hand.
This ^^^. Most of the excess cash is from retired boomers or their children. The amount of money at their disposal makes COVID stimulus look like a nickel.

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