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Boat sales are actually down year over year

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Boat sales are actually down year over year

Old 09-09-2020, 08:01 PM
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Default Boat sales are actually down year over year

After reading the 500th post or so recently about people claiming that “so many boats were sold this year, the bubble will burst, fire sale next year.......” I decided to look up the numbers and my hunch was confirmed:

Boat sales are actually DOWN in 2020 vs 2019.

https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/colum...ent-over-april

People are going to say “but the boat lots are empty, sold out!”

Yup, that’s what happens when they shut down manufacturing for 4 months, you run out of inventory.


“Overall, the industry was down 1.5 percent year-over-year and 11 percent year-to-date...”

Now it wasn’t true everywhere. Florida actually saw an increase year over year, but the country as a whole? Less boats sold.


More from the source:
Monthly reports on sales of new, used and brokerage boats provide the industry with the information to understand its market and follow consumer trends and buying patterns
https://www.tradeonlytoday.com/colum...by-the-numbers





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Old 09-09-2020, 08:40 PM
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Inbelieve that was also the case in 2018 vs 2019, overall boat sales nationwide if I recall were down a bit when we looked at new boat registrations when researching into building a new boat brand. Yes regionally it had spikes, but overall were down.
Old 09-09-2020, 08:46 PM
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new boat sales

i believe the used market is hot hot hot
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Old 09-09-2020, 08:50 PM
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Doesn't surprise me. Joe 6-Pack is getting priced out of boating.

Bigger profit margins in larger and more expensive boats, so manufacturers continue to lean that way. Top tier builders are going bigger and bigger, with larger profit margins from larger boats, less and less manufacturers focusing on middle and upper-middle class boaters/budgets as the profits are thinner in those markets.

Less boats sold, but same or higher profits for manufacturers.

Time was, every mid-tier boat brand had sub 20 foot options for the entry market, and had somewhat "affordable" 20-something foot offerings. Now we have markets full of 100k 28 foot "bay" boats. Not actually "affordable" for the average annual household income in America of 62k. Doesn't stop some people from taking 20 year notes and making payments, but that certainly doesn't make the purchase "affordable" or a remotely good idea.
Old 09-09-2020, 10:39 PM
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I guess it depends on what web site you look at. This one says sales are up.
https://boatingindustry.com/news/202...ew-boat-sales/
Old 09-09-2020, 11:14 PM
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Originally Posted by halfwaythere View Post
I guess it depends on what web site you look at. This one says sales are up.
https://boatingindustry.com/news/202...ew-boat-sales/
THAT is only addressing ONE month (May)... being up one month over May of last year. Hardly an over-all trend.
Old 09-10-2020, 12:19 AM
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Someone better tell the MarineMax investor relations department (and the institutional investors who've driven their shares up 60% YTD) because in August they reported:
  • Same-store sales growth of 37% year-over-year in the June quarter
  • Gross margin up 0.1% year-over-year in June
  • Low inventory due to strong sales and manufacturers closing due to Covid
Meanwhile, every surveyor and mechanic I spoke with in Annapolis, MD, and San Francisco said they've never seen anything like the current market.
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Old 09-10-2020, 01:50 AM
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This year has been very odd (best selling car in the UK in April? Tesla!!) and I think you need to wait till the end of 2021 to look at trends - BUT if there were a few months of not selling anything and its now only 1.5% behind, that tells you that things must have been on fire to catch up.
Old 09-10-2020, 03:04 AM
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Those figures are only through May. Most dealers say things started to go crazy in June. Let's wait to see the full year report.
Old 09-10-2020, 03:13 AM
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Figures are only through May and don’t account for the used market, sure the shutdown tightened supply but the boat market has been en fuego.
Old 09-10-2020, 03:18 AM
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Well it must vary by location then. I know several ,dealers and brokers here in Central Jersey. They have already completely blown away any previous year in sheer numbers of boats sold. This goes for new and clean used boats as well. They are only slowing down now because of a lack of inventory. Oh and if you want to see for yourself. Take a ride out on the bay over the weekend. The traffic is just stupid.
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Old 09-10-2020, 04:04 AM
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New York dealer told me he sold 3x the boats this year versus last year, and significantly more than any year in their 50 year history. Wake boats lead the way in increased sales.
Local dealer by me has zero inventory available, every boat sold and most arriving are pre-sold before the truck arrives.
Old 09-10-2020, 05:28 AM
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Originally Posted by mystery View Post
new boat sales

i believe the used market is hot hot hot
Yes, partially because the new boat manufacturers shut down and if you wanted a boat now, gotta buy used.

And yes, while this was updated August 1, the data seems to take a couple months to compile so it’s only through May. So will have to wait until March to see what the whole year brings.

But either way, Boat supply is DOWN for 2020, which seems to go against the theories that we will have a ton of used boats around next year.

Will there be more around than 2020? Maybe since the lots are empty right now. But enough to lower prices? Doubtful.
Old 09-10-2020, 05:30 AM
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God i cant wait for these market is hot, the market is getting soft, people are going to be dumping threads to be over.
Old 09-10-2020, 05:37 AM
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Have a friend that is a dealer in NC.
Sells G/W and has been doing this for 20 + years.
Went thru the lean years wondering if he was going to be able to keep the doors open.
Said this is the best year he has ever seen.
Old 09-10-2020, 05:39 AM
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Makes sense. Supply constricted in anticipation of demand falling and COVID shutdowns, demand didn't fall as drastically.

Old 09-10-2020, 05:41 AM
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if the supply had kept up with demand who knows what might have happened?
shop around for used boats, used trucks, houses- the market is incredible right now
Old 09-10-2020, 05:46 AM
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Originally Posted by 69Mach390 View Post
Yes, partially because the new boat manufacturers shut down and if you wanted a boat now, gotta buy used.

And yes, while this was updated August 1, the data seems to take a couple months to compile so it’s only through May. So will have to wait until March to see what the whole year brings.

But either way, Boat supply is DOWN for 2020, which seems to go against the theories that we will have a ton of used boats around next year.

Will there be more around than 2020? Maybe since the lots are empty right now. But enough to lower prices? Doubtful.

Agreed and it’s going to take forever to catch up, tons of boats on order (Already sold) so dealer stock will be limited through Spring. I mean my dealer can’t scrap boats together to do a boat show, and pretty much everything they have in order is already sold aNd they aren’t a small operation, at some point this will obviously level, doesn’t mean it’ll fall off a cliff....everybody always looks at these situations like they are all or nothing...they look at the stock market like we are either soaring or headed to the Great Depression, reality sits in the more moderate middle of the 2 scenarios more often then not.
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Old 09-10-2020, 05:47 AM
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Originally Posted by mr_mbuna View Post
Someone better tell the MarineMax investor relations department (and the institutional investors who've driven their shares up 60% YTD) because in August they reported:
  • Same-store sales growth of 37% year-over-year in the June quarter
  • Gross margin up 0.1% year-over-year in June
  • Low inventory due to strong sales and manufacturers closing due to Covid
Meanwhile, every surveyor and mechanic I spoke with in Annapolis, MD, and San Francisco said they've never seen anything like the current market.
One company vs the whole country.
One quarter vs the whole year.

Sure things look fantastic when you cherry pick data (just like the other person who posted data for one month).

Again, we will have to wait and see what the whole year brings, but unless manufacturers build more boats or build them faster, supply will be down.

Itll be interesting to see how MarineMax and other dealers do while the lots are empty. Can’t sell what you don’t have. Not only are less new boats available, but that means less trade ins. Also with how easy it is to sell private party, I bet less are just selling to dealers.
Old 09-10-2020, 05:56 AM
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Originally Posted by 69Mach390 View Post
One company vs the whole country.
One quarter vs the whole year.

Sure things look fantastic when you cherry pick data (just like the other person who posted data for one month).

Again, we will have to wait and see what the whole year brings, but unless manufacturers build more boats or build them faster, supply will be down.
Respectfully, I think you're as guilty as the rest in cherry picking data. It's September. The last 4 months have been nutso.

I have a friend who has been new boat shopping and of three different 23' models he was interested in, couldn't find a dealer within a 2 hour drive with one on the lot to look at. He finally placed an order when one dealer called him and said the model he liked just rolled in for service, so he had a 24 hour window to see one. Wait time on his order? 3 months.

The article you linked even says "However, early sales data show new-boat sales strongly rebounded in May, up 59 percent compared to April and up 9 percent from prepandemic levels on a seasonally adjusted basis"

I'll be shocked if 2020 doesn't have at least a 10% rise over 2019 boat sales, if not more than that. The only reason it wouldn't would be if manufacturers just couldn't keep up with demand. March was a huge slowdown for everything.

Last edited by Flot; 09-10-2020 at 06:03 AM.

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