Thread: Microsoft...
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Old 04-05-2013, 07:54 AM
  #11  
jobowker
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Originally Posted by Joe View Post
Actually..OSX is a Unix based operating system.

And just about everything you stated was for personal use, not for a business, enterprise class environment. Even if every business that uses Windows (in any flavor) wanted to get rid of it tomorow (and many would love to get rid of the licensing fees), they simply couldn;t move that fast. I'd bet there is still a >30% share of Windows 2003 Server in use in businesses..and thats an 11 year old OS. Windows 2008 really didn't start taking off as a platform until about 2009-2010. Windows Server 2012, with its many changes, may take 2-3 more years to grab market share. But it will continue to increase.

And thats where the money is made. Microsoft has to sell a ton of $80 Windows home / personal use licenses to equal a years worth of just one mid size companies licensing fees for desktops, Office, SQL, CRM, Exchange and a ton of other business apps used everyday.

VMware has said for years that they were working towards having an OS free virtual environment; where the application uses an open source language and directly speaks to the hypervisor, eliminating the need for an OS (ANY OS) altogether. I heard that at least 2 years ago; It hasn't made a ding in any market yet.

So yeah..I agree..that article is crap.
You're right, OS X is a unix based posix compliant OS. I should have said linux, android, OS X, and unix all come from the same family. The point is that they are all related, and all non-microsoft.

Yes, I think enterprises will move far slower. Many companies still have quite a few XP boxes, maybe half XP and half win7, having skipped Vista altogether. Lots still have people running around with Blackberries. But even if they are moving slower, if they are still moving in the same direction, then Microsoft will start to become less relevant.

Right now, Microsoft is a leader in desktops, and a still a player in smartphones & tablets. They also dominate in the server market. Now if they fail to remain viable in the consumer smartphone market, and fail to compete in the tablet market, that alone makes them less relevant. Smaller relevance doesn't mean they are going to go away, it just means they lose market share, revenue, and influence, even if they stay strong for the enterprise.

Increased adoption of windows 2008r2 servers doesn't mean much by itself. If I had Windows 2003, and I upgraded to 2008R2, MS didn't gain or lose market. They got paid, but they didn't gain or lose any market share. A better metric would be any changes in the percentage of non-microsoft servers, which right now is very very low.

Changes in the consumer market can change the enterprise landscape over time. Back in the day, the internet ran on unix boxes, but then windows servers started creeping in and unix servers became less relevant. So the same thing that helped Microsoft back in the day can hurt them later on.

Additionally, as Linux distributions gain popularity in the consumer space, this too can affect enterprises as companies slowly adopt linux based servers. Remember that the enterprise was the last big bastion for Blackberries, but once RIM lost the consumer market and failed to make crucial corrections, their days as a major player were numbered. It still took quite a while because the enterprise market moves slower, and RIM was only into smartphones and not as diversified as MS.

I don't think Microsoft is going to go bankrupt, but I do see them playing a much smaller role going forward unless they take corrective action. They are diversified enough that it won't happen overnight, but that doesn't mean it's not happening.

Ipads took off - what if some of those Ipad users work for a small company and bring in an Apple server for a pet project? Many more people today (still mostly geeks) dual boot their laptops with Ubuntu - what happens when they start spending more time botted up with Linux? What about when small companies decide they want to save money by using OpenOffice?

Microsoft is trying to get us to move to Office 365 to provide a constant recurring revenue stream. It's a fantastic business model for them as it brings in steady monthly recurring revenue. Enterprises will be the last to change, and Microsoft will continue to make money for a long time, but even a large company dying a little at a time is still dying. It just takes a lot longer.

If year over year your market share goes 99%,94%,87%,79%,70% and finally 60%, I'd argue you are losing influence. (These numbers are made up.) You may still be the biggest player, and you may still be making a billion dollars in the enterprise space, but you still need to start looking at the tea leaves.

I bet in 10 years Microsoft will still be raking in money hand over fist, but it will be other companies profiting from smartphones, tablets, small netbooks, computer systems in cars, and startup companies.
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