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Old 05-12-2013, 05:56 PM   #1
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Default Bluefin Tuna 2013 Drop in Prices - Yen vs Dollar

The conversion rate of the Japanese Yen to the U.S. dollar right now is roughly 25% below what it was a year ago. This means, unless the gap closes, U.S. commercial bluefin tuna fisherman will be taking a 25% pay cut in 2013.

The highest quality U.S. caught bluefin tuna are shipped to Japan for top dollar returns to the fishing boats. Once in Japan the fish are bid on at auction. The fish are bid on using the Japanese Yen and then converted to the the currency from which country the fish was imported. For instance, a southern bluefin tuna caught off Australia and sold in Japan is converted to the Australian dollar at the going exchange rate at the time of sale.

So this means fish exported from the U.S. are converted from the Yen back to the U.S. dollar. Since the conversion rate is 25% below 2012 levels it means 25% less U.S. dollars back to the fishing boats.

What does this mean to commercial bluefin fisherman in 2013 if the currency gap does not close:

- A $20lb fish in 2012 back to a U.S. boat is now worth $15lb. Same fish, same quality purely just a currency conversion rate change from the year prior.
- A $15lb fish in 2012 back to a U.S. boat is now worth $11.25lb back to boat.
- A $10lb fish in 2012 back to a U.S. boat is now worth $7.50lb back to the boat.
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Old 05-12-2013, 07:15 PM   #2
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Dude your full of it, don't you watch wicked tuna?
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Old 05-12-2013, 07:20 PM   #3
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Just asked to be paid in yen, then bury the yen in a coffee can in the backyard. In 5 years, when the USD is in the toilet, bam!, you can by a pack of gum (with inflation, of course).
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:01 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by CMEBoston View Post
Dude your full of it, don't you watch wicked tuna?
I know you're joking around but unfortunately even the fake prices on the show were from 2012 before the conversion ratio tanked on the U.S. dollar. Hopefully it gets better but it doesn't sound too good.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:21 AM   #5
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I know you're joking around but unfortunately even the fake prices on the show were from 2012 before the conversion ratio tanked on the U.S. dollar. Hopefully it gets better but it doesn't sound too good.
Im sure you've noticed I try to Joke about most stuff, I dont plan on making it out of this world alive so I may as well make it out happy.. and yes the conversion will suck, but I doubt its gonna stop anyone from fishing, aint gonna stop me......
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:23 AM   #6
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Pinwheel wins

we need a Sh!t stirring emoticon....
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:26 AM   #7
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And the prices paid by the domestic market won't change......
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:28 AM   #8
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And the prices paid by the domestic market won't change......
true, we need to launch a trendy sushi eating campaign and get the rich hipster kids parents' money....... up that domestic price.....
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:31 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by CMEBoston View Post
true, we need to launch a trendy sushi eating campaign and get the rich hipster kids parents' money....... up that domestic price.....
That happened already....head over to Mac's in the summer to see it in full force...
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:34 AM   #10
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I found this chart (Yen vs. US dollar) http://www.indexmundi.com/xrates/gra...=USD&days=5475
Looks damn scary for our fisherman.
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Old 05-13-2013, 09:40 AM   #11
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That happened already....head over to Mac's in the summer to see it in full force...
......
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Old 05-13-2013, 11:52 AM   #12
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Domestic mkt will be flooded with good fish and the price from Japan will drop even lower. Greeeaaaat...

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Old 05-13-2013, 12:56 PM   #13
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Low BFT prices are the least of our economic worries. Something similar to the great depression will be here in the next 3-5 years Im betting. Runaway inflation and runaway unemployment on the horizon
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Old 05-13-2013, 01:15 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by enzoforza View Post
Low BFT prices are the least of our economic worries. Something similar to the great depression will be here in the next 3-5 years Im betting. Runaway inflation and runaway unemployment on the horizon
Well, for the comm BFT fisherman, wouldn't those circumstances make the low prices even more important?
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:07 PM   #15
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If you are exporting something - you are holding Yen in the form of Fish, if you think the dollar will get stronger against the Yen, and the value of your fish will drop. short the yen to make up the difference.

http://www.proshares.com/funds/ycs.h...Fccw4AodMi0AFw
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:34 PM   #16
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with what money am i going to short the yen with?
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Old 05-13-2013, 02:43 PM   #17
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with what money am i going to short the yen with?
Montel Williams will loan you cash
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Old 05-13-2013, 04:47 PM   #18
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Old 05-13-2013, 05:32 PM   #19
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That's the beuty of a short sale. You are selling something you tourself don't own on the promise that you will buy (or catch) another and return it to the lender at a later time.

So if you short sell a tuna, somebody is actually giving you one of theirs. You are promising to return that tuna to them at a later date, with some interest. If the price of tuna falls, you win because the tuna you return to them will be less valuable than the one you sold. If it goes up, you are screwed, but you have hedged against that by catching a new tuna.

Amazing the games adults play.
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Old 05-14-2013, 06:13 AM   #20
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and yes the conversion will suck, but I doubt its gonna stop anyone from fishing, aint gonna stop me......
No it won't stop anyone from fishing. That's why it's called tuna fever not cash fever.

Was just trying to give a little insight on how the change in the yen conversion from last year will affect prices.

Biggest guys hit with a 20-25% drop in returns will probably be the Georges boats. Bringing back 3 fish worth $2-4lb less than the year prior adds up quick. Probably means the price of fuel for the trip.

Conversion rate all part of the game. Ebbs & flows.
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