NOAA is going to get someone killed!!!! - The Hull Truth

pugnacious3333 · 07-04-2009, 02:47 PM

Yesterday afternoon, the forecast was calling for 10-15s for today. This morning, it dropped down to 5-10s.

Tons of boats out today, mostly small ones. I just checked the Ship Island bouy and the winds have been blowing 15-20s since 11 am. Hope everyone was safe on the way in..........glad I made the call to come in early. Helluva fun ride back on the waverunners though, if not a tad bit moist.

People are doing the right thing to check the forecast before going out, but lately it seems like tossing a coin is just about as good. Anyone know anything about how these forecasts and how they are figured? Computer models? Maybe someone from NOAA can chime in.

Back-in-Black · 07-04-2009, 11:33 PM

From the same scientists that are predicting global warming.

spineyman · 07-05-2009, 03:42 PM

The Govt can't do anything including predict weather. Don't look at NOAA any longer. Go to Florida-Offshore and read the reefcast. Best weather I have found yet.

pugnacious3333 · 07-05-2009, 04:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by spineyman

The Govt can't do anything including predict weather. Don't look at NOAA any longer. Go to Florida-Offshore and read the reefcast. Best weather I have found yet.

Yep, I just got turned onto that site. Looks good so far.

REDWEISER · 07-05-2009, 04:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Back-in-Black

From the same scientists that are predicting global warming.

I don't know about global but record highs are being set in the gulf south almost every day for the last two weeks ... it's warm.

jplvr · 07-05-2009, 07:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REDWEISER

I don't know about global but record highs are being set in the gulf south almost every day for the last two weeks ... it's warm.

Just as small instances of cool weather mean nothing, small abormally hot periods mean nothing as well.

Man made global warming is a farce, at least in the armageddon sense many portray. One day everyone will be in agreement on this, but I just hope it's before the damage is too deep.

pugnacious3333 · 07-05-2009, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jplvr

Just as small instances of cool weather mean nothing, small abormally hot periods mean nothing as well.

Man made global warming is a farce, at least in the armageddon sense many portray. One day everyone will be in agreement on this, but I just hope it's before the damage is too deep.

Yep. Areas of the north are experiencing record cold. As far as the damage being too deep, it is already too late.

Pier#r · 07-06-2009, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pugnacious3333

Yesterday afternoon, the forecast was calling for 10-15s for today. This morning, it dropped down to 5-10s.

Tons of boats out today, mostly small ones. I just checked the Ship Island bouy and the winds have been blowing 15-20s since 11 am. Hope everyone was safe on the way in..........glad I made the call to come in early. Helluva fun ride back on the waverunners though, if not a tad bit moist.

People are doing the right thing to check the forecast before going out, but lately it seems like tossing a coin is just about as good. Anyone know anything about how these forecasts and how they are figured? Computer models? Maybe someone from NOAA can chime in.

I feel for the folks who got

been there many times myself

New forecasts are generated every 6 hours but as conditions often change more quickly in our currently tropical-like atmosphere the forecasts at times lag behind.
The computer models that generate the forecasts are only as good as the data fed into them.

There is a way we as citizens can contribute to the accuracy of the data that goes into making (and ultimately updating) these forecasts.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/voluntary.htm

Quote:

The MAROB Program is an experimental voluntary marine observation program of the National Weather Service in the early stages of development. It seeks the participation of all mariners, both commercial and recreational, which are not part of the more in-depth VOS program. It is the goal of the program to collect as many marine observations as practicable, to improve the accuracy of coastal, offshore and high seas forecasts, by taking advantage of technological advancements in digital marine communications.

National Weather Service Phone Numbers to Report Marine Observations and Severe Marine Weather (MAREPs)
Key West, FL 305-295-1316 Ext 3San Juan, PR 787-253-4589Tampa, FL 800-282-1228Tallahassee, FL 850-942-8833Mobile, AL NoneNew Orleans, LA504-522-7730Lake Charles, LA 337-477-5285Houston/Galveston, TX NoneCorpus Christi, TXNoneBrownsville, TXNone

Hope this helps!

scottnaq · 07-06-2009, 02:28 PM

Like stated above, they predict it of off current data and that is what they make the extended prediction on. Thats why it is totally different everytime a new report is posted, because the conditions change all the time. Accuracy is pretty bad as you all know. I've seen the seas go up and down in a matter of an hour or less. I think its to complex for a computer or anyone to predict. The only thing thats a given is if there are any major systems in the gulf and it doesn't take a scientist to figure out the conditions related to that. My motto is "good report, expect the worse" but you have to give it a shot anyway.