Red Snapper numbers according to SEDAR 15 ???
1/30/10
To: South Atlantic Council/Scientific Review Panel for Red Snapper According to SEDAR 15 the rebuilding target for the red snapper biomass is approximately 36 million pounds (18 million pounds of mature females or SSB). According to the SSC at this level the red snapper population would be able to create enough offspring to sustain a level of fishing that was similar to what we had before the closure. To understand how we reached the 3% of historical biomass that we are at now according to SEDAR we need to look at a 20 year period from 1946 to 1966. According to SEDAR 15 in 1946 the red snapper stock was near 61 million pounds (30.5 million SSB) well above what is needed to sustain today’s fishing levels. During the two decades after WW II, fishing pressure was very small by today’s standards. The average annual catch for commercial and recreational fishermen combined was less than 830,000 pounds per year according to SEDAR 15. This represents a maximum of 2.7% of SSB each year starting in 1946. This was with no size limits or full retention (almost zero discards) At that level of fishing the stock was not overfished and actually was underutilized as far as MSY is concerned. That means that the stock was large enough to replenish what was being taken out of it each year and then some. During those two decades fishermen had very little affect on the size of the red snapper stock according to SEDAR 15 catch data. This is not the case at all in SEDAR 15 historic biomass computer model. 1946 28 million pounds of mature female red snapper (SSB) 1966 6.8 million pounds of mature female red snapper (SSB) Difference 21.2 million pounds of mature female red snapper (SSB) This is a 75% decline in the red snapper spawning biomass in those two decades with 2.7% fishing mortality from the original spawning biomass. That means that approximately forty-two million pounds are missing from the computer model for the years 1966 to 2006 that should have been included minus natural mortality. SEDAR 15 ESTIMATED BIOMASS SEDAR 15- Total Catch 1946-1966 Percent 1946- 61 million pounds 1946 – 369,000 pounds .6%(1.2% of SSB) 1966- 16 million pounds 1966 – 830,000 pounds 5% (10% of SSB) At no time during these twenty years was fishing mortality above 10% of the spawning biomass for any of the years, even using the bogus 1966 numbers from SEDAR 15. The range for fishing mortality was 1.2% to 10% each year for twenty years. This is well below the necessary level to maintain the stock close to the 1946 level. But there was a 75% decline in the red snapper stock according to the SEDAR 15 computer model. Before the upcoming re-assessment please find out the answers to these very important questions: - Where did the 40 million pounds of red snapper go?
- How did the spawning stock biomass drop 75% from 1946 to 1966 with only 1.2% to 10% fishing mortality?
- Is SEDAR going to change the model so that it reflects reality?
- Did anyone on the review panel actually read SEDAR 15?
- How did this get past peer review?
- HOW DID THIS GET PAST PEER REVIEW?
- Biomass numbers – SEDAR 15 SAR 1 Section III page 56
- Commercial Catch Numbers- SAR 1 Section II pages 36-37
- Recreational/Headboat Numbers – SAR 1 Section II page 73
*Note- Recreational data before 1962 was calculated by taking the average percentage of the recreational to commercial ratio and reversing it from 1962 back to 1946 using available commercial data. Sorry, there has been a correction to the above numbers. Here it is.
To: South Atlantic Council
In an earlier email I included info about the SSB being reduced by 75% from 1946-1966. This was calculated using biomass numbers and making a rough estimate. I was then shown the actual SSB totals from SEDAR 15 and the SSB was reduced by 45% from 1946-1966. I apologize for the mistake, however this is still a loss of 13.5 million pounds of SSB during this time period, a significant reduction.
The SSC and SEDAR 15 recommendation is to rebuild the SSB to approxiamtely 17 million pounds so that fishermen can catch 2.3 million pounds per year (Page 9 Review Workshop Report).
If this is the case then how did the SSB of 28 million pounds get reduced by 45% from 1946 to 1966 with fishermen catching less than half of today's proposed 2.3 million pounds annually. In fact the best fishing year during those two decades fishermen caught less than 1 million pounds according to SEDAR 15. Yet the original 28 million pounds of SSB gets reduced by 45%.
This just does not make sense. We rebuild the stock to 17 million to catch 2.3 million per year and that is sustainable. The stock was at 28 million and fishermen caught less than 1 million pounds annually but that decimated the stock by 45%.
Does this make sense to anyone else? How did we decimate 28 million pounds of SSB by catching less than one million pounds per year with almost zero discards?