Is the lack of shipping pointing to a speculative market? - The Hull Truth

bellsisland · 09-17-2009, 11:20 AM

Here is an interesting article. I know there are a few shipping guys on here, maybe you could comment on what this artcle is alluding too?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tho...-market-bubble

Eyeball · 09-17-2009, 07:25 PM

It is very much an indicator of global economic health, watched by everyone. It is called the "BDI" -- Baltic Dry Index. Here, read the first post at the top of page 2:

http://www.thehulltruth.com/dockside...-stocks-2.html

Today's BDI:

bellsisland · 09-18-2009, 06:46 AM

Lot of container ships just sitting out there, also I read that the companies that make the containers and ships, have had an order in months.

KJS · 09-18-2009, 06:58 AM

Here is Singapore. This was January but I have never seen anything like it before....

DrJim · 09-18-2009, 07:23 AM

Could one argue that the data between 1/06 and 1/09 in that graph is an anomalous peak rather than the norm? If so then it doesn't look so bad.

This is how everyone (state budgets especially) got into trouble, figuring the best, once in a generation spike in activity,revenues,etc was the norm. So they spent the windfall and budgeted for it in the future when any dope could have predicted that what goes up must come down.

beenie · 09-18-2009, 10:09 AM

I heard on PBS, I think, that a company that dealt with recycling would send the product to Chine and do the recycling there to make boxes for the exports. He had no demand for his product at all and had to temporarily stop operations there. This was a couple of months ago. Yes, it's way down and who knows when it will improve. Meantime, it's a great time to buy!
Mike

Eyeball · 09-18-2009, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrJim

Could one argue that the data between 1/06 and 1/09 in that graph is an anomalous peak rather than the norm?

It represents projected/anticipated economic growth. The slide down, OTOH, was not anticipated.

Bird Rock · 09-18-2009, 09:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eyeball

It represents projected/anticipated economic growth..

What you do mean? How can 1/06 to 1/09 represent anticipated growth? There was an obvious spike in transactions during this time. Everyone was riding high. Bottom fell out (which I agree wasn't expected) but it wasn't anticipated, it really happened.

I'm with Dr. Jim. That spike wasn't the norm.

edit: Very cool picture of all those ships.

Eyeball · 09-19-2009, 02:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bird Rock

What you do mean?

Google "Baltic Dry Index" and read about what it is and why it is. Hint: it doesn't exist just as a record of what was.

MAGNUS · 09-19-2009, 04:42 AM

I recently bought some stock in the dry bulk shipping sector. Up over 30% on one and about 5% on the other. TBSI an NM. Just have to wait and see what happens.