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OK, Big Al, I'm with you , what are we buying then?
This is when the rich get richer.
I am stooopid enough to call a bottom, but i'm no idjit , so I will not give specific buying/ selling advice. In general terms, the behemoths (GE would be an example), and the better energy players. No retail.
If you can take the pressure, some 2 beta S&P funds could make you a heap in a hurry. If you can really take the pressure, go 2 beta inverse S&P before today's close, and hold through Wed.
Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment professional. I'm not that smart. I pay people to manage my money for me, and I do some on my own. The pros have done better than I have; though I have had some pretty good pops this year. The markets are a hobby for me, and one that I do not get as much time to enjoy as I would like. I have created some market models, one in particular, that will cycle pretty well for 6 to 9 months, and then blow up like a dead whale. If I ever figure out why, I will have the golden goose. It's not the goose I am after; its chasing it that I like.
Thursday - 7400-ish
Big Al
__________________ "Pedophiles must die" - Ted Nugent
Themis Sal - 10/14/2008 6:06 AM
Eearnings are starting to come out, and I don't think those will be good anywhere, so I don't see a move above DOW 10k soon.
Sure Sal?
To look at the current 'news', me being an armchair investor only, I would tend to agree, but, last night an Evergreen fund manager on CNBC surprised me by reporting that he saw 3rd and 4th quarter earnings would be up across certain sectors that would help sustain a confidence rally?! He gave a reason in 'econo-speak' that made sense when he was explaining it, but I cannot BS my way through it now, and of course you have to take his opinion with a grain of salt. He is after all a 'fund manager'. It's like walking into a Chevy dealership and asking the first guy with a neck tie, "Hey are Chevrolets any good?" So this morning I did a little research and was surprised to find A LOT of good forecasts especially in consumer staples, health care, and some semi-conductor/computer firms, specifically;J&J (up 30% in the third quarter!),Intel and IBM good boosts in earnings, Yum foods, Safeway, others, even GE met revised expectations. But true, as you would imagine a lot of financials suffered from not being able to raise capital. Alcoa took a dump, others.
If I were at the helm; consumer staples, healthcare, oil tech. People gotta eat, if you need a by-pass, you're gonna get one, and drill, drill, drill.
I like KXI and PPH (I am long both of those still..... and I think people should rotate to those from the high beta sectors (NASDAQ and XLF etc) once the rally teters out in a few days). I would not want to be long any consumer discretionary post election, or retail, or cyclicals in general.
Post-election, BO gets elected, DJIA will head south to around 6500 for the holidays. Stocking up on firewood and liquor. Gonna get me a new gun for x-mas.
Starting to look right. I don't think we will see Friday's intra-day anytime soon, but my guess is the S&P under 900 is going to be a fact of life for a while.
My 10/13 comment stands up pretty well (for once)...
"Beyond that, the bottom line is that the world and national economy sucks, and if we have fixed the credit problems all we have done is stave off catastrophe. To me, it seems that at best we are getting closer to the long drag down, and this uptick should be looked at as a selling opportunity rather than as the beginning of something good."
Tobacco, yes. Some alcohol, specifically, beer and perhaps other cheap liquor. Both will see increase in sales in hard times and both are already on their way up.
This is a "global Crisis".
liquidity is not getting into the hands of the people.
I have some some friends that run a clinic, and they say most of the healthcare corp
are not paying the patient bills, cause they cannot get a bank loan.
in my opinion this is far from a bottom.
I have to agree with you. My friend who has 30 people working for him in his business that hes had for over 30 years cannot even get a car loan as of today. The dow will have its ups and downs and maybe a big rally next week I sure hope so. No rally in the next two weeks were in big time trouble. I do like JNJ and loaded up on some today at 52.
it might rebound some Monday, but there's bigger problems down the road.
Recession's are Regional.
Depressions are Global, and this feels like the real deal.
Periods like this really make even the most rational want to have the actual benjamins under the bed. I am so tired.
most of the people around the world are realizing just that, In France, you cannot find
a "safe for sale", here in the USA safe company's are selling them box's like hot potatoes.
people are panicking and removing their savings from the banks,
the banks need the people's money in order to operate and conduct bussiness.
Is their money, they entitle to it, however once a good amount of people do it, it will have effects down the road.
I'm not so sure what, if anything, can be done to quell the emotional/psychological aspects of the 'panic', but I'm REALLY starting to get chapped by the media jumping all over bad news, no matter how fact based it is, and entirely ignoring potential strides and good news reporting, no matter how fact based it is, because 'death' sells.
That goes for the Congressional leaders (leaders?) and supposed academic periphery; "Hey Ma! Looka' me! I'm on CNBC! All I had to do was paint a sh***y picture of the US economy and future! They love this sh**! Go France!"
I'm all for transparency, and I'm not a Pollyanna, but it's getting to the point of recklessness. Today I sat down to read the WSJ and the lead story is the reigniting of the a NEW market slump. WTF? On page two the author(s) (why it took three contributors to pen this moan and groan I have no clue) actually add;
"............A big priority for now remains calming the fear that has swept through financial markets." lol that little nugget and "...............the National Retail Federation plans to release a survey Thursday reporting that US consumers plan to spend an average of $832.36 on holiday related shopping, up 1.9% froma year earlier!" YEA! GREAT! ".............It's the lowest increase in planned consumer spending since consumer spending since 2002." oh great; was smack dab in the middle of 52 inches of copy; "It's F'ing over. You're done. The US is down for the count. Your dog has fleas, your granny has cancer and your wife is cheating on you. PS, your boat is down at the marina hanging from her mooring lines, you're mercury switch failed last night, the dockmaster was laid off, there is no one left to help you."
In disgust I chucked the paper aside and turned on CNBC because when I left to take the kids to school, futures were up +100. But there's the usual 'money honey'; "OK, futures have given up all their moring gains, we'll be right back with our doom and gloom predictions on the Consumer Price Index and Jobless numbers, stay tuned, You just know they're gonna suck!"
Jobless numbers? WTF? 'Unemployment' wasn't dour enough? Now we have to average in the 'jobless'? Screw all, I would imagine a large percentage of the 'jobless' prefer it that way.
It's obvious what's going on; less about responsible 'reporting' and more about selling DeBeers diamonds and Giorgio Armani out of the WSJ and Chuck Schwab and the latest Bow Flex home gym on CNBC. Yup, 'death' sells. Fuggers. My first two moves reigning in home finance will be adiosing my WSJ and Direct TV subscriptions.
RE: I'm Calling The Bottom 
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1st Cav Div Air Assault Infantry RVN
