*THE HULL TRUTH is the world's largest FREE network for the discussion of Boating & Fishing. Whether you're researching a new boat, or are a seasoned Captain, you'll find The Hull Truth Boating & Fishing Message Forum contains a wealth of information from Boaters and Sportfishermen around the world.
Welcome to the updated THT!
If you are having trouble signing in, please email feedback@thehulltruth.com with your username and we will help you. We thank you for your patience as we help you access the new site!
Random Quote: "If no one sticks on their necks for their beliefs or dreams, then they will never be able to catch the fresh
I'm sure most are familiar with it. Whether or not we've reached that point is the subject for debate. World wide consumption is still increasing, and there is a finite amount of the stuff down there, so if we're not there yet we'll get there sometime.
__________________ Sod your yard. I NEED TO KEEP MY BOAT!
Seahunt 186 Escape F115 Yamaha
That's OK - it is no less pertinent now than it was in 2005. It should start affecting prices sometime after 2030. In the meantime there is no reason in the world why the market shouldn't be glutted with oil at $130 a barrel, other than artificial constraints. They know where the oil is, and there is room for more than one pipe in each field!
I want your honest opinion. How long do you think this run up in oil prices is going to go? Me thinks once the economy improves and the dollar starts to strengthen, then the speculators will find a new flavor of the month or year just like with dot com and real estate.
I want your honest opinion. How long do you think this run up in oil prices is going to go? Me thinks once the economy improves and the dollar starts to strengthen, then the speculators will find a new flavor of the month or year just like with dot com and real estate.
the economy is going to improve when the price of gas goes down pain and simple
I want your honest opinion. How long do you think this run up in oil prices is going to go? Me thinks once the economy improves and the dollar starts to strengthen, then the speculators will find a new flavor of the month or year just like with dot com and real estate.
the economy is going to improve when the price of gas goes down pain and simple
Actually, I think a sharp global economic downturn would be a better catalyst to pop the bubble. I still don't accept the premise that this is all driven by speculators. If there was a real gap between the spot price and the futures price, they wouldn't be able to cover their long positions. There is only so much that can be done with designer derivatives and collars. Someone is going long at higher and higher prices (committed to buying at the contract price). What I suspect is happening is that there is a lot of incest going on to close these positions out.
However, the spot price is also continuing to rise. Up to a point, panic buying by speculators who are short could be driving up the price, but ultimately that has to drive up supply. Unless the spot market is being manipulated, eventually that has to break.
Until that happens, the psychology of the ultimate suppliers is that they will do anything to maintain the supply just on the fringe of “oversupply”. Ironically, the higher the price goes, the more they have to lose if it pops, so the more incentive they have to maintain the “balance”, and the more they can afford to reduce overall volume.
That’s why only a shock to demand, or a major public policy shift will be required to effect change. However, even that could be deflected with reductions in volume.
The amount of money at stake here is in the trillions, so the idea that there is nothing insidious going on strains credulity.
... and there is a finite amount of the stuff down there,...
So people think so, and some people think not. The "not" thinkers are thinking oil is a renewable resource. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, I dunno.
An interesting point of the "not a finite amount of the stuff down there" thinkers is the consideration of all living matter that ever occupied any time on this planet at anytime in its history. Add it up and there isn't enough there to equal the amount of oil we have already extracted from the earth, let alone the stuff that we think is still down there.
Whatever and wherever dino juice comes from, it remains a mystery.
I think she'll settle in at the $4.50-$4.75 retail price at the pump for 87 octane gasoline, depending on which state you are in. And then stay there for 1-2 years. after that, who knows. I think Diesel should flatten out to be at about the same cost as gasoline, or just a bit higher.
Peak Oil 
