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Your Prediction On Boat Sales . . . Next 12 Months
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Location: Quebec, Canada and Pirates Cove, OBX, NC
Posts: 15,472
Your Prediction On Boat Sales . . . Next 12 Months
What do you think boat sales will do over the next 12 months? What are your predictions?
Vote and then tell us in your answer what you predict and wht you are predicting it.
The article quoted in another post says says
Quote:
New boat sales fell by 12.2 percent in January, when compared to the same month of 2008, to $207,033. However, pre-owned boat sales took a huge jump of 125.6 percent from $40,320 in January of last year to $90,961 this January.
Total dealership sales dropped by 14 percent, when compared to the same month last year.
Used boat sales are such as small part of the sales of the "average brokers" (whatever that means) that even though used boat sales jumped 125%, there was a total decrease in sales of 14%
My analysis is, for what it is worth
First: The economy is forcing people to buy used boats rather than new boats
Second: The "average brokers" who went broke or busted are not included in the survey therefore the survey is scewed because only the successful brokers are being counter
Third: Seems like someone is trying to paint a rosier picture of the boating sector
Short term prediction: (my prediction) A short term blip in increased boat sales this spring, especially used boats as the prices are coming down and people are starting to know if the economy is putting them at risk or not, amking them more willing to buy or not
After July prediction: A long slump in boat sales as most people who have spare cash will already have bought a boat this spring.
Advice to Sellers: Be aggressive and sell before June or you will keep the boat for a long time
Advice to Used Boat Buyers: It is your market. Be patient and keep looking. Your boat is out there
Advice to New Boat Buyers: Wait a couple of months and prices will really start dropping as they will want to move their inventories as the cost of holding those boats will become prohibitive for them
There is a collection of aged inventory boats on the market now that are being sold at reduced prices. Some of these boat, although they are new, are being registered as used product when they are sold because of the year model. This is messing up the numbers a bit with regard to used boat sales compared to new boat sales.
There is a reasonable number of folks in the market to buy a boat in spite of the economy. Some of the ones able to buy are in the market looking for a good deal, and I certainly don't blame them. Because the collection of aged inventory boats is not renewed the desirable boats are decreasing every day. Cherry picking, if you will, is going on. A good deal is where the buyer gets what he wants at a good price. No matter how good the price an educated buyer will not make a purchase based on price alone. In other words, a buyer looking for a 20' CC will not settle for a runabout, even at a half price blowout.
The boating sector certainly needs someone to report some good news now and then. Enough of this gloom and doom already. We all need to know that the economy is in a mess but we need to remember that this country has lots of capable and employed people, and we like boats among other recreational products. Some of those people have waited long enough for the sky to fall and they've decided that their particular sky is not falling, and they are taking advantage of an attractive market, therefore the upturn in boat sales both new and used.
Most manufacturers of new product are pulled way back or shut down while the purge is taking place. I predict that new orders will trickle in through the '09 product year and we will see a slow start to the 2010 product orders followed by a slow but gradual increase in orders. Some builders will be around and able to crank back up, some will not. The market will adjust to the new and diminished demand and we will see fewer name brands offered. That's how a free market works.
New boat prices can only fall so much. The cost of production has not gone down and a certain profit margin is needed by any business to keep the doors open. Product that is in the dealer's possession can only be marked down so much. If a dealer goes below cost to purge aged inventory he needs cash to go with that sold boat. They only have so much cash to use before they simply let the bank have the boats back. Therefore waiting for a huge reduction in price for a desirable new but aged boat may not work out. Remember, if enough boats are repoed the builder is driven out of business, and along with the builder goes the warranty. Without warranty the value of the boat takes a nose dive, and the good deal starts to smell bad.
My advice to buyers of new boats, therefore:
Pick a brand that is comparatively healthy and preferably actively producing boats.
Pick a boat that fits your wants and needs, no matter the price.
Pick a brand with a good, long track record.
Pick a dealer with some longevity and a reputation for taking care of his customers.
If you are selling a boat this year it is always advisable to get it sold before June. After that you can pretty much depend on keeping it through the winter at least
__________________
Tom Marlowe, in the boating industry since 1970.
Boats will always be cheaper in the future. So, for the absolute best deal ever, never buy one. Or, spend a year or two looking and then, when you can actually afford it, buy something. Or don’t.
Also, buyers and professional lookers will always claim that prices are too high. Sellers and dealers will always complain that your offer is too low.
I haven’t figured out yet how business actually gets done.
__________________
"The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money."
Margaret Thatcher
OWE Shoot auguste, your advice to sellers sell by june other wise you will have it all year, your advice to buyers of new and used is wait don't buy now. Seems to contradict one sentence to another. That's one of the problems we are seeing, people taking your type of advice, and thats why all you here on the news is A DROP IN SALES caused this layoff. Wouldn't YOU rather be hearing TODAY (not in june), " A RISE IN SALES caused the stock market to rise, the auto manufacturers brought everyone back to work, the boating manufacturer's all opened back up, bank's feel confident and are loaning money, WE MUST BE OUT OF THIS RECESSION. Im sorry,I just bought a 3rd boat, because I know that boat is worth "WHAT IM WILLING TO PAY FOR IT"
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1991 29' Blackfin Flybridge (Twin diesel) , 1991 Intrepid 246 Open w/ 250 yammi Blackfin in background
Last edited by blackfinmike; 03-15-2009 at 09:27 AM.
New boat sales will continue to fall off slightly, or remain flat at best. Used boat sales will do the same, seasonal adjustments notwithstanding. They(used boat sales)may pick up slightly at the end of the year, compared to the same time in 2008.
IMO, It's going to be early 2010 before we see the market as a whole start to turn around.
Boats are a pure luxury item. You will see sales on automobiles and other consumer goods start to rise before boats follow suit.
wow! alot of strong opinions about the subject thread. None of which are hard to debate, but again, opinions. My opinions, although not worth more than any others are: I think used boat sales are outpacing new boat sales for two main reasons, the used boats are "younger" used boats than in the past, and, a large reason for this is that just a few short years ago, folks got into boating with equity "ripped" from their homes which now have a lower value than a few short years ago. those folks lose their jobs, can't afford the boat, put it up for sale. Another personal opinion, I think there will always be a newboat market, perhaps not as brisk as these next few years, but for those who are relativly well positioned with their finances, and love boating, sales will happen. I do believe, however, that the bafoons who thought they had the funds to "try" boating, will go away. Kinda like a self cleansing ritual on the waterways. Again, anyone and everyone can and certainly is inviited to jump all over my response, but please keep in mind, its only my opinion.
Location: Quebec, Canada and Pirates Cove, OBX, NC
Posts: 15,472
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackfinmike
Shoot auguste, your advice to sellers sell by june other wise you will have it all year, your advice to buyers of new and used is wait don't buy now. Seems to contradict one sentence to another. That's one of the problems we are seeing, people taking your type of
I agree it is conflicting advice but there are two perspectives on this
[Tom] is the guy desperately wanting to sell his boat . . . [Tom] is trying to get [Jerry] to buy his boat before June comes along and it will be near impossible to sell his boat
[Jerry] is the guy who wants to get the best boat he can for the money he has available to him, and is willing to wait until a better priced boat comes along
[Tom and Jerry] ( ) have competing objectives and therefore they got different advice
The fishing hasn't been stellar, forcing owners to go to larger boats to go out farther.
Then I think the spike in gas prices scared a lot of these same large boat owners, making them look at the cost to operate and maintain, which is probably more than keeping an airplane.
Then, we are getting older, at least speaking for the baby boomers, and this bloc of guys going into retirement losing a lot of 401K value makes them rework the numbers to realize that boating might not be affordable, resulting in more boat sales to rid themselves of a too expensive hobby.
Then you have the lack of job security, homes and boats with loan payments, all making the younger guys with house payments insecure about an expensive hobby.
All in all a depressing outlook for a luxury hobby.
But I personally do not think that boats will never get as cheap as they were a month ago, especially smaller ones.
If you want to buy, get a low price on a used good quality hull that will standup, give you a good ride, and with 4 stroke power and don't wait too long.
Much higher inflation is coming in the short term on prices and interest rates while good inventories of desired models are depleting at the same time.
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¡Oooooooooole'!
Last edited by Bullshipper; 03-15-2009 at 11:33 AM.
Everyone has their own opinion, and I agree with the sentiment above. I believe the economy is the overwhelming factor in the boating industry. Many people are thinking more long term now than the short term mentality of the last 5 years or so. Cost of ownership is continuing to rise as is the cost of acquisition of new vessels. I think there will be a small bounce of used boats this spring, but I don't believe that boat sales will recover until next year. If you look at some of the manufacturers of luxury yachts, such as Hatteras, that recently reported they reduced their workforce from 1,400 to 330 and were still only working a 32 hour week, demonstrates the situation in black and white. I also believe the number of dealers will be greatly reduced and the number of new repossessed boats will continue to rise. There is a new dealership in FL that only sells new repo boats - Gulf Coast Marine Liquidators. Only time will tell, but it is not a bright future for new boat dealers in the next year or so.
It seems to me that making a prediction of a turnaround in 2010 is somewhat myopic. Our government, rightly or wrongly, is spending like never before. What effect will this have on inflation, the value of the dollar, etc. Spending means printing more money or raising more taxes, or both, each with it's own impact.
IF things stay as they are now, August's predictions seems to be reasonable to me. BUT, I would not want to bet any large some of money that fiscal conditions in this country or worldwide will remain as they are now.
Agree with many of the comments here and would add there is a pricing problem with boats that is just beginning and will get a lot worse. The stale inventory of unsold new boats which in many cases are approaching 2 model years old. When they will sell is anyones guess but many may not sell till they are 3 model years old. You may have wide variations in pricing relative widely varied financial conditions of dealers and manufacturers. Who's desperate and who's not.
Then you throw in the large inventory of really nice used boats many with very low hours and in great shape that are being sold by dealers, brokers, and private owners in as many states of financial distress that you could think of.
It all adds up to what may be a very confused market for a long time as people are definitely pulling in the horns big time (Look at Target retail sales vs Walmart, huge imbalance Walmarts numbers killing them). Or individuals downsizing in big numbers with a few looking to upsize with a large number of great choices available to them. Buyers are going to be firmly in a commanding position.
I don't see a return to any kind of orderly boating market with typical model year intros, new production manufacturing schedules and deliveries for quite some time. If small business tax policy that is looming comes to pass that will further damage the mess we are in. Because guess who builds the boats and who provides all the myriad miscellaneous componentry for all those evil rich people, (or anyone who owns a boat) that's right small businesses.
Years from now we may look back at this period and in discussing boats we may be saying-oh yeah that company had a gap in production way back then in 2010/2011 or beyond.
The gov'mts monthly unemployment number (jobs lost) for the last three months is 650,000 to 670,000 per month. Another way of saying the same thing is 20,000 jobs go bye-bye everyday. Sooner or latter that is going to affect everything that is purchased in America (most importantly, food and shelter).
So, I think the new and used boat sellers that liquidate first are going to be the lucky ones and get the best prices.
The economy is in a nose dive and the Stimulus Package won't be adding jobs for MONTHS.
Well, I just watched the Space Shuttle go off to space from my back yard .And tonight I was feeling optimistic.Then I go on line to my favorite place to waste time and converse with my fellow boaters. I am preplexed by all the doom and gloom.I believe you guys are the same one's that started the rumor about the housing bubble was going to burst back in 2004. We have to start talking up good times and get out there use our boats and spend money so all the small business's in our area can benefit .Lets stop always trying to be correct on our predictions.But meet our predictions with resolutions. Maybe in this forum there is someone that has an idea instead of a deal. And that's all I got to say about that.
__________________ Reel Pleasure Proline 24 Super Sport Twin 150 Suzuki's 4 strokes
Unless the credit markets release their strangle hold on consumer lending Boat and RV sales will die on the vine.
We are not at the bottom of the economic cycle yet not even close, our beloved leaders are devaulating the dollar faster than a whore on dollar night and foreclosures are just starting to show on homes, autos, boats and RV's.
Not trying to be doom an gloom but facts are facts...and the world is in trouble not just us Americans...
Your Prediction On Boat Sales . . . Next 12 Months
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Blackfin in background
) have competing objectives and therefore they got different advice 
reel pleasure
