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Old 07-10-2002, 02:11 PM
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Hi: I need to know which way the economy is going , are you consumers all worried about your job, do you plan to cut back on your spending,?

Anyone delaying buying that new boat? [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif[/img]
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Old 07-10-2002, 02:22 PM
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I think the market is bad now and going to get alot worse, the overspending and overvalueing of stocks that went on in the 90's is coming back to bite you!

Will the above make me think about spending more, you bet it will....

202 Scout Sportfisher, mainly fish Point Judith, Block Island, and Charlestown.
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Old 07-10-2002, 02:49 PM
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I work for an investment management firm and days like today (Dow down 282) are a drag, but you really need to take a long term approach.

That said, I am looking at purchasing a new car for my wife ($20-24K) and a new, used boat ($16-24K) over the next 6 months. Plenty of good deals to be had!

I haven't had a raise in over a year but my job seems secure and we all know the economy will eventually turn around. Two things are certain: no one is getting any younger and you can't take it with you!
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Old 07-10-2002, 03:16 PM
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The stock market has been bad for several years now. People that were in the market and did not cash out had already lost most of their "fortune" quite a while back. I don't think ANYONE [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_redface.gif[/img] can predict the direction of the stock market or the economy with any degree of accuracy.

It seems that some of the people on this forum can spend pretty freely even in the face of falling stocks and a gloomy economy. Perhaps they're spending their last dollar; perhaps there is no end in sight for their disposable income.

I think people, as a whole, have a very difficult time changing and that would include their spending habits. If you are used to driving a nice car and you feel your car is getting old, you will purchase a newer nicer car. If you love boating and you are ready for a new boat, you will buy a new boat.

Most people will only change if theyHAVEto.

That's my 2 cents on the effect of stocks and economy on our population's propensity to spend
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Old 07-10-2002, 05:18 PM
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Like gf said, there are some good deals out there, especially in the "luxury" category. i.e. Higher end cars, boats, etc. I am in the insurance business and job is pretty secure. When the economy goes bad people don't come in and mass cancel their policies. I guess we feel it a bit because people aren't buying that new car, house, boat. However, when the economy is booming, we do get a bit of an upturn because people are buying new toys but not to the extent of the jewelers, RV dealers, highe end car dealers, boat dealers, etc.

But in the end, I've said it before and I'll say it again, a boat is on the lowest level of Maslow's heirarchy of needs so ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
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Old 07-10-2002, 05:23 PM
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My stock has done pretty well. The job market is another story. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif[/img]

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Old 07-10-2002, 05:53 PM
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I think everyone should continue to spend what they would regardless of what happened 9/11. Which I believe is part of the problem. It has hurt consumer confidence, the only way to keep people employed and the economy going is to spend!

I am actually spending more, gotta make up for those that aren't. I honesty believe that fear is our biggest problem. Don't be afraid!
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Old 07-10-2002, 06:01 PM
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Hell yes. Two years ago at this time, I was almost ready to place an order at Jarret Bay - Glad I waited.

POUNCE!
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Old 07-10-2002, 06:47 PM
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If you had asked me where I would be at this time,two years ago. I'd have told you I'd be retired and living on the Outer Banks. As it is now that is a faded dream. This time next year I'll be lucky to still own a boat, much less be able to use it.

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Old 07-10-2002, 07:05 PM
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I have lost a ton of my retirement bux. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif[/img]

I expect it to get worse before better . . Dow 8100, Nasdaq 1000. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_frown.gif[/img]

Damned glad I have some bux in real estate and home mortgages. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif[/img]

Red sky at night. . .
JB [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif[/img]
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Old 07-11-2002, 05:18 AM
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Hmm, well half a world away it's no better really - our pollies tell us things are great - and they rattle off the numbers to justofy their claims.

Unemployment low - 5.75% (what they don't say is the numbers low coz most people have given up looking).

Interest rates - record lows lowest in 40 years - mortgage round 9.5% (what they don't say is those who gave up looking for work coz there isn't any can't service the mortgage they already got!)

Look at it from a rural town point of view where I live, and it's been going down for the last 12 years or so.

I got here 15 years ago to a town of 1200

I was employed in forestry.
I had 86 wages employees and 26 salaried (total 112).
Budget for the year 3.5 million, revenues (from hardwood and softwood logging) 5.5 million

Left Forestry 8 years ago redundant - I'd comuterised every system bye then so it could all be done from the nearest regional city.

Forestry dept now has 3 salaried staff and 16 wages..total 19

In that 15 years I estimate 93 peoples disosable income of say 30K a year has left town along with their families, kids from the school, etc etc.

Thas about 3 million a year of disposable thats gone.

Same with the timber mill (the towns other biggest employer).

15 years ago they had 3 x 8 hr shifts of 42 men, 6 days a week, now 15 years later, they have one x 8 hr shift of 42 men, 4.5 days a week.

The disposable income from that industry which has left town?..

About another 3 million a year.

A busy little town of 1200 is, now a town of 500, and the sign on the bridge over the river into town says "would the last person to leave town please turn out the lights!".

Every business, house, and farm in the town has a "for sale" sign on it. there hasn't been a real estate sale in this town now for over 12 months.

School bus routes (and the govt. contracts that go with them) are closing - not enough kids to fill a small (20 seat) bus.

Teachers leaving - not enough students. One gas station left.

This is what city dwellers don't see, vibrant bstling little towns totally decimated,bye poor decision making in this world in the big cities (and powerful nations) that are destroying the rural areas totally.

Course - they will realise it was a mistake when their foods all imported because folks walked off their land and went to live on welfare in the citys.

They won't notice it imediately, because their food will be imported from some other third world nation, when they will notice it is when ebola, snmallpox, foot and mouthm anthrax or something else wipes out the third world nations supplying their food and theresnothing grown locally to bail the city's outta the shyte they created themselves from poor decision making.

All you need to be highly sought after by mutinationals is to know how to be a cost cutter, how to prune the tree, well unfortunately - a lot of the friut bearing wood on those pruned trees is gone.

The citys - all citys depend upon their rural outlying areas for their real wealth creation, citys only take rawproducts and manufacture it into something useable, rural communities take a seed of grain, grow it into stooled wheat stalk with many many grains, thats where real wealth creation comes from - sunlight, soil, water and tending the crop.

Citys produce little if any real wealth.

When rural areas collapse - all the greatest citys of the world have foundered at various times in history.

Any fool can find cost cutts - it takes a far sighted and dedicated person to bake a bigger cake so theres enough to go around.

Missus & I took the kids into a nearbye coastal tourism town, pop 250,000, to look at selling up our farm and moving to the bigger town - wife already commutes their to work, kids have to go there by bus next year for schhool anyway, might as well bloody shift there to live and save the fuel bills.

Don't want to but it's the only thing that makes any fiscal sense.

Real estate person said we were the 3rd couple from our town who were in there today looking at moving!

The world economys totally Phukked people and anyone tells you different must have 2 dicks coz you couldn't be that silly just playing with one!

The stock market and everything else will grow when our towns are vibrant & growing, and not before.

We country folk have been not renewing our house and farm insurance for years to try and get bye until things get better, in order to be able to service our mortgages etc.

The fella above who said he's in insurance and people aren't cancelling their policys so he figures his jobs safe - well, no they aren't comming in to cancell - but Ill bet my left ball a lot of em aren't renewing - which my dear fellow means your jobs not secure at all!
I know coz I'm one of em!

The world economy's totally Phukked and i know it - Nat's on the land and he knows it.

We'll be the forst to tell you when it gets better but the only light were seeing at the end of the tunnel, is the headlight of an oncomming express train as far as folks in the bush are concerned.

I personally wouldn't let G Dubyia or our own pollies downunder run a church raffle if you asked me.

Thats how things are in the bush!

Cheers!

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Old 07-11-2002, 05:51 AM
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Goal I set 5 years ago was to retire next year, buy a boat and pass the winter months on the SW Coast of Florida. At one point two years ago I even had enough in retirement savings (invested) to meet that goal. Today, retirement is off the radar screen. Thankfully my wife and I have good jobs and day to day life is comfortable. The Florida condo we bought 6 years ago has gone up in value 2.5 times. Looks like I'll have to get a few more winters out of the ole snowmobile and ice fishing geer.
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Old 07-11-2002, 07:02 AM
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In the New York Metro and Long Island area, the marinas that I am familiar with are mostly full to capacity. This in spite of increased marina fees over the last few years. Four or five years ago when the dot com and stock market booms were just getting going good there were fewer boats in these same marinas.

Perhaps since money is not so easy to make these days people are spending less time trying to earn more and more time spending it on the enjoyable hobbies in life such as boating.
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Old 07-11-2002, 07:49 AM
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Buy low - sell high. Seems to me that going in the opposite direction of the herd pays off. Sell any real estate or foreign stocks now at these high prices and buy American stocks at these low prices. That's what I'm doing. I'll let you know how it works out in ten years.
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Old 07-11-2002, 07:55 AM
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Our fortunes can be turned around overnight, catch the bastard, Ben Ladin, then watch the market.

Dont you think part of his scheme is to get us thinking like we are, Where will the next attack come from? Will there be another attack? We are all living with FEAR in the back of our minds. The Economy is good, we have to lighten up and continue business as usual.

Just when it appeared we were coming out of the doldrums, here comes Enron and Worldcom. Now there is no difference in what those thiefs have done to us and Ben Ladin did. Hell if the former President can get away with lying, why couldnt they? How much of the lying and cheating by the CEO's has yet to be determined? There are some good companies out there running an honest and above board business, support them and buy their stock.

I continue to buy stock, right or wrong, I believe in this Country and that the rebound is only a short time away. Ben Ladins capture will make the Dow rise 500 to 800 points. Lets find him and kill him over there. Im afraid if we put him on trial over here, we just might set him free on some legal technacality.

Thats my $1.00's worth. Keep buying Stocks in good companines. I am not a Stock Broker, but look at long term goals. Im retired and continue to look long term. GOD BLESSES AMERICA.

23' Regulator, 2 200 HP Yamaha HPDI's. Charter and SKA Tournament fishing, Chair of King Mack Tourn. benefits underpriviliged kids in Eastern NC.
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Old 07-11-2002, 08:00 AM
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Damn Trouty... it must really suck looking at life and the world with such a pessimistic outlook. While I dont discount some of what you are saying... my question would be this.. the lumber mill you spoke of... is the work off 60% or is it that one crew can do the work of three crews due to modernization...etc... just a thought my friend... the cold hard facts are that with automation comes the need for less workers in many areas.... do I think companies go overboard.. hell yes.. those cutting thousands of jobs this year will be hiring thousands in the next few...

And as for insurance..How is it possible Trouty that you could have a mortgage ( presuming you do ) and NOT carry insurance.. What shag is refering to are laws regualtions in this country ( most parts anyway ) requiring auto insurance ( liability as a minimum ) and comprehensive if you have a note against it... and homes.. well if its totally paid for i suppose an idiot wouldnt carry insurance but if their is a mortgage attached... NO mortgage company I know of would allow that to happen.....

As for my personal spending still fish as much as ever.. maybe one or two less trips offshore a year... in the past 2 or so... but nothing drastic... and other major purchases... why change vehicles when what I have is perfectly fine... ( both paid for )!!!

I long ago moved most of my money out of stocks and into bonds... it will turn someday.. and there will be some $$$$ to be made.



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Old 07-11-2002, 08:18 AM
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Interesting topic.

Bin Laden, The Twin Towers, Anthrax. None of these have anything to do with the fact that two years ago people were paying $500.00 / share for Yahoo. Sorry, it's called greed. Greedy investers trying to become millionaires in a couple of years. Greedy companies telling investors (lying) what they want so desperately to hear.

Furthermore, the price level of the stock market is NOT the US economy, just an aggregrate snapshot of people's (irrational) expectations about particular companies. The US economy is o.k. The stock market needs some blood letting. Greed, anyone?

That being said, I was not a part if the bubble on the way up and I am not concerned on the way down. I cashed out my 401K a couple of years ago, so sure that the market was overpriced by magnitudes. (also needed the cash for a home) That tax penalty I paid looks awful cheap right now. I work for a stodgy old "smokestack" company with good management and good job security. Many of my friends had a good last couple of years and lost a ton recently.

Yes, I am buying a boat. What the hell, I feel almost vindicated in my conservative actions. Time to celebrate.

p.s. If "it" is advertised on TV incessantly, like investing and wealth was in the late 90's, YOU DON"T NEED IT. Run away w/ your wallet.

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Old 07-11-2002, 08:39 AM
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Trouty, not saying my job is absolutely secure just trying to compare the businesses that move more directly with the economy. I would rather be in insurance in a down market than be a jeweler.

Speaking of markets and insurance, we are entering a hard market like we ain't seen in many years. Some of you who are involved in the purchasing of commercial insurance know what I am talking about. Companies are pulling out of markets, prices are climbing dramatically on some lines of business, companies are non-renewing accounts that they were competing on a couple of years ago.

The reason is that when they were making 20% to 25% on their money they could handle an underwriting loss. Now when they are flat or actually losing on investments, they can't afford an underwriting loss and are seeking an underwriting profit. 9-11 wasn't the culprit but did contribute quite a bit to the problem. Re-insurers were bleeding red ink and are raising their prices and tightening underwriting. This affects the standard market eventually to some extent.

When the economy makes a turn upward you will see the competition we have been used to return. Not sure where I was going but that's my story and I am sticking to it.
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Old 07-11-2002, 09:21 AM
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[img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif[/img]
Maybe it hasn't sunk in yet!
Ok - here it is dot bye dot.
The bush is the first place too feel it when the economy turns downward.
We are also the first place to feel it when the economy turns upward.
A few good crops, some good prices, and people in the bush think they've won the lottery, AND they do something smart - invest off farm!

That starts all the cycles your looking for - investment properties being snapped up, purchase of a few stocks, bonds etc...
Well - it ain't happening folks.
Despite our farmers being some of the worlds most efficient, we get no subsidies - we are part of the free trade agreement and we don't subsidise, we used to but now our dollars floated and we trade without subsidy because at 20 milion popn we can't afford to, we just don't have the tax base to be able to.
Now - in good rainfall years, we get great crops, and can't sell it for much above production cost, BECAUSE subsidised US & EU farmers are dumping subsidised grain on the world market at below our production cost.
Not saying it's right or wrong just stating the fact.
When we have bad years - drought etc - well - the farmers take another hit...
It's so bad now banks won't loan to plant crops in over 50% of the wheatbelt.
There just won't be any turnaround folks - because the settings in the worlds economy are all wrong, all driven by short term, quick buck thinking.

When you remove peoples "incentive" to take a risk, borrow, and speculate to accumulate - they react by saying they don't wanna play the game...
They keep their hands in their pocket. They don't spend.

Every year I normally go do this for a week up north!



Not this year - can't afford it.
Spoke to the owner of my local tackle shop today, he too normally goes up north for a weeks fishing round this time of year. (traditional thing to try and escape the winter) Not this year, can't afford it.

Had my furniture business valued and put it on the market last year at 270K, it's still on the market this year and reduced down to 140K, and still no offers.

Any of this making any sense?

The economy's totally phukked - no ones got any money to spend - the spiggots been turned off.

It's not that hard to fathom, no one has any confidence left in anything - this is the worst it's been since 1929, I know - all my elderly relatives who lived thru that era have said so.

This is the great depression - just like we had before WW2

The only thing will bring us outta it is if G Dubyia finds the balls to go into Iraq, and kick Saddams ass properly this time - and while we're there - we should take the iranians oil, & the bloody pissant Saudis oil as well.

Sooner the better as I see it.

The wests economy is oil dependant, and the arabs have the oil and we dont simple as that - well- sorry to say it but it's high time we went and took the bloody oil...

If them Arabs wont sell it to the rest of the world at a fair price so's our oil dependant economies can function then they have only themselves to blame if we come take it all off them forecibly IMHO.

A few phukken towel heads holding the world to ransom for oil, and G Dubyia lacks the cajones to go git it. [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif[/img]

I'm sorry to say it but it's high time we played cowboys and muslims!

When I'm benevolent dictater there won't be no pussy footin about - THAT much I CAN tell you! [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif[/img] [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif[/img]

Cheers!
(yup yup yup - trouty callin a spade a spade again! [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_rolleyes.gif[/img] [img]/infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif[/img])

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Old 07-11-2002, 02:12 PM
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Capt Stanman... Couldn't agree with ya more. I think you stated what I was to lazy to type. I am buying, buying, buying! Bought a ton of stocks after 9/11. I have made alot of money this way, and I am spending it all, and them some. New cars( got 5000 in rebates alone!) new Harley (guy panicked and wanted to sell cheap) new dirt bike and four wheeler (dealers motivated to sell) New boat (used, but 2 boat owner dropped drawers to get back some liquidity) Bought a house last year before 9/11 but, got 5 3/8% rate, took out an equity line @ 4.5% and bought the toys! All great deals! In no way is this bragging or anything like that, just putting my money where my mouth is. I figured I saved about 20k by buying now. Now all that we need is for the sellers of these items to spend that money! It is mostly consumer confidence in my opinion. People are afraid to let it go in fear of never getting it back!
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