Florida & Georgia - Invest 94

Could be interesting ... :trout:

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With today being the first day of school and being an evacuation site we are watching it closely. But still so far away it could go anywhere

Me and the wife were supposed to spend next week in the keys for our anniversary. Keeping a close eye on it, defiantly glad we bought that travel insurance!!!

Update...... Looks like we are gonna get something ......

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Same old, different year.

Same old, different year.
+1 :thumbsup:
However we have been getting belted all day with rain.. actually for the past few days.. wind and rain.
I am ready for a break.. June,July both sloppy months

Gives you something to talk about for a few days. Then you will have some decent information. Issac is too far out to get "nervous" about.

Not for nothing but the ground here is pretty saturated from summer storms. If we get a good blow could topple some trees. But to early to tell

this sucks

Computer models seem more tightly clustered then usual....this could be interesting.

just left north palm this am at 8 to drive kids up to school in dc,got here at 9.30pm. nothing on the news here, kind of looks like i should start making some preliminary plans for possibly getting the shutters up on the marathon home.

The storm path says welcome to Holiday Isle.

Sunday 8/26
Morning
Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Small short period wind waves.
Winds: NE 20 to 27 knots
Seas: ENE 6 feet at 6 sec.
Afternoon
Gale warning with dangerous seas. Small craft advisory. Use extreme caution. Moderate short period wind waves.
Winds: NE 27 to 36 knots
Seas: ENE 9 feet at 7 sec.
Monday 8/27
Morning
Gale warning with dangerous seas. Small craft advisory. Use extreme caution. Large short period wind waves.
Winds: WNW 33 to 45 knots
Seas: NE 11 feet at 10 sec.
Afternoon
Gale warning with dangerous seas. Small craft advisory. Use extreme caution. Moderate short period wind waves.
Winds: W 26 to 35 knots
Seas: W 7 feet at 6 sec.

I'll start worrying on Friday and then decide if I need to strap the boat to the lift.

Im in the friday camp...as well....I am heading to the store after work though for some basic stuff.

Any of you keys guys planning to pull your boat out of the keys??? If it's still on the same path by Friday I'm thinking about it as the track puts it righ in Key Largo.

While we are on the subject - what is the current law regarding moving vessels from a marina .... Its my understanding that the dock-master cannot force you to relocate ???

Hoping some of you locals help me out. We are scheduled to stay in marathon from the 25-2. Is it true that they issue a tourist evacuation separate and before the standard resident evacuation? If so how far in advance is this issued and what category or rating must the storm reach before issuing the evacuation?

Hoping some of you locals help me out. We are scheduled to stay in marathon from the 25-2. Is it true that they issue a tourist evacuation separate and before the standard resident evacuation? If so how far in advance is this issued and what category or rating must the storm reach before issuing the evacuation?

Yes they evacuate tourist and motor homes prior to the locals. With the storm coming from the direction that it is, they are going to have a tough call on when the right time is. It looks like the storm can hit from KW to North Carolina. I would say by Friday if the storm track hasn't pushed more east they will start calling for evacuations, if the intensity predictions are on track. A lot can happen with interaction with Cuba so there will be a lot of uncertainty with this storm, but once off of Cuba it will have perfect conditions to intensify.

This is from the Fla-keys.com website in regards to visitor evacuations:

Visitors are asked to leave the Keys during any category storm while residents are mandated to leave during a severe hurricane of Category 3 or higher. The early egress of visitors is for their own safety. Officials want visitors to have plenty of time to get out of harm's way as well as to not impede the movement of Keys citizens in the event of a resident evacuation. Also, because of the Keys' unique nature as a chain of islands, with one highway in and out, the region requires more time to evacuate than other coastal areas. And emergency officials must react earlier to avoid impacting possible evacuations of other South Florida communities.

In the event a hurricane does impact the Keys, there is high likelihood of power outages, temporarily impassable roads and airports that will be temporarily out of service. Most, if not all, hotels will be closed and visitor facilities will not be operational. At that point, the top priority for government and business owners is to restore facilities so the Keys can once again provide full-service vacation opportunities.

Historically, a hurricane only impacts the Keys once in four to five evacuations because the forecast error track rate (the projected path of the storm) is so great at the time of the evacuation order. As hurricane forecasting advances, that rate should decrease and hopefully diminish unnecessary evacuations.

Hoping some of you locals help me out. We are scheduled to stay in marathon from the 25-2. Is it true that they issue a tourist evacuation separate and before the standard resident evacuation? If so how far in advance is this issued and what category or rating must the storm reach before issuing the evacuation?

I would plan on not going at this point.... you will have a much better Idea on Friday, but maybe hang further north and make the call tuesday....

Computer models seem more tightly clustered then usual....this could be interesting.

They are showing strong Highs in the Gulf and off the Atlantic coast. So, if it doesn't get diverted or lose steam along the way it sounds like they are currently thinking that the Highs will funnel it up like the gutters of a bowling alley, as shown in the models.

This is the latest from miami-Dade Emergency Management.

The Office of Emergency Management is monitoring TS Isaac in the Atlantic.

Current location: 1664 miles from Miami

Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 45 mph

Forward Speed: 18mph

Forward Direction: west

Potential for further development or weakening: Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and it could become a hurricane by Thursday.

Potential Impact for Miami-Dade County: Miami-Dade County remains in the 5 day forecast. Though it is still early and many variables may impact this storm, on its current track, 5-days out , there is a 23% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds

Current Miami-Dade County Actions: Monitoring

Current related watches and warnings for Miami-Dade County: None

Miami-Dade Emergency Management will continue to provide updates on this weather system as it evolves. Detailed information on this system can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov (Mobile: www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile). For forecast information specific to your area please visit http://weather.gov/miami.

Paul Vitro

Emergency Management Planner, Office of Emergency Management

Miami-Dade Fire Rescue Department

Phone: 305-468-5423

Fax: 305-468-5401

www.miamidade.gov/oem

Looks like the keys are going to get some rain and wind regardless of what happens.

My problem is my flight leaves saturday morning at 8am, if the evacuation is posted before my flight I can get a refund on my trip through the insurance. IF it is not posted I have to continue on my trip as normal until an evacuation is posted to claim anything. So basically I have to fly into Miami and then try and turn around and find a flight back out of Miami once the evacuation is posted...

Typically, the airlines will let you change your tix without penalty once a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch is posted. And if things continue as they appear at the moment, the Watches would probably go up sometime Friday.

The wild card is going to be when the storm makes it's turn and how much time it spends over the mountains of Hispaniola and/or Cuba...it's moving quick (18-20) now, but forecast to slow down. This is good news...the longer it's over land, the more likely it is to weaken before it gets into the FL Straits.

yeah it could be good news unless it speeds over the mountains and then slows down. It will do nothing but build up. Hopefully the high pressure systems steer it somewhere else other than the us. Don't think that is gonna happen here

The latest track has the eye coming ashore in Layton. Donna came ashore at Duck Key. I only bring this up so I can see how accurate they are in the predictions.

History tells me that everytime they track it to hit South Florida, when its this far, they are usually wrong;?

The Boating Spot (http://www.theboatingspot.com/) website has the Buoy Data (http://www.theboatingspot.com/tropical_update.php) along it's track...should be interesting as it approaches.

Starting to wonder if maybe it's going to brush the Keys, but be a bigger problem for the Northern Gulf Coast...the track seems to edging further West.

While one would think a landfall in the sparsely populated Big Bend area might be better, that area has had SO much rain this summer...in some places close to 50"...all they need is ANOTHER storm.

Starting to wonder if maybe it's going to brush the Keys

If that's the case, will the keys more than a day/night of storms and wind?
I'm use to east NC hurricanes, the keys and Caribbean are a different animal from what I've read.